Emily's speed... a few questions.

[jax]

What is the primary force moving Emily 20kts? (the ridge?)
Is there anything that could slow her down?

Some storms will stall... does it become trapped under a horizantal ridge?

[Brent]

It's not expected to stall... it's forecast to move around this speed through Day 5.

[jax]

It's not expected to stall... it's forecast to move around this speed through Day 5.

that wasn't my question... no offence...

[Stormcenter]

It's not expected to stall... it's forecast to move around this speed through Day 5.

We don't know that for sure once it enters the BOC.

[wxman57]

Emily is being driven WNW by moderate easterly winds around the southern periphery of a large area of high pressure over the SW Atlantic and NE Gulf. Once Emily reaches the southwest edge of the high, it may slow down a few knots but ithere is nothing to indicate that the steering currents will evaporate. It should make a slow turn to the northwest then north. Question is, how far west will the high extend by Monday/Tuesday when Emily crosses the Yucatan? It's possible that the high just builds a bit more west and Emily heads straight into Mexico. Sometimes large and powerful hurricanes can help to build the ridge to their north, preventing recurvature (Gilbert, Allen, etc.). But if the ridge to the north weakens more than predicted, then watch out lower to mid Texas coast.

I'd say about a 60% shot at a Mexico landfall (greater than 120 miles south of BRO). But I am concerned about a quicker turn and a threat to the lower TX coast.

[jax]

Emily is being driven WNW by moderate easterly winds around the southern periphery of a large area of high pressure over the SW Atlantic and NE Gulf. Once Emily reaches the southwest edge of the high, it may slow down a few knots but ithere is nothing to indicate that the steering currents will evaporate. It should make a slow turn to the northwest then north. Question is, how far west will the high extend by Monday/Tuesday when Emily crosses the Yucatan? It's possible that the high just builds a bit more west and Emily heads straight into Mexico. Sometimes large and powerful hurricanes can help to build the ridge to their north, preventing recurvature (Gilbert, Allen, etc.). But if the ridge to the north weakens more than predicted, then watch out lower to mid Texas coast.

I'd say about a 60% shot at a Mexico landfall (greater than 120 miles south of BRO). But I am concerned about a quicker turn and a threat to the lower TX coast.

thanks... another general question... what weather factors surround a stalled
hurricane? the eastern side of a ridge? say, a high moving off of mexico
into the gulf... the storm wanting to go north and the eastern side of the
high holding her in place?

[hicksta]

Emily is being driven WNW by moderate easterly winds around the southern periphery of a large area of high pressure over the SW Atlantic and NE Gulf. Once Emily reaches the southwest edge of the high, it may slow down a few knots but ithere is nothing to indicate that the steering currents will evaporate. It should make a slow turn to the northwest then north. Question is, how far west will the high extend by Monday/Tuesday when Emily crosses the Yucatan? It's possible that the high just builds a bit more west and Emily heads straight into Mexico. Sometimes large and powerful hurricanes can help to build the ridge to their north, preventing recurvature (Gilbert, Allen, etc.). But if the ridge to the north weakens more than predicted, then watch out lower to mid Texas coast.

I'd say about a 60% shot at a Mexico landfall (greater than 120 miles south of BRO). But I am concerned about a quicker turn and a threat to the lower TX coast.

iv been worried about all the storms we have been having in texas. couldnt that move farther south and mess with the ridge. also isnt there spose to be a troph coming down to mess with that ridge to?