18:00 z Model Guidance on 99L, Back On NRL Main Page!!!

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:
Contact Wnghs2007

18:00 z Model Guidance on 99L, Back On NRL Main Page!!!

#1 Postby Wnghs2007 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:00 pm

000
WHXX01 KWBC 141850
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050714 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050714 1800 050715 0600 050715 1800 050716 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 41.9W 16.3N 44.0W 17.4N 46.1W 18.5N 48.1W
BAMM 15.5N 41.9W 16.4N 44.2W 17.5N 46.6W 18.6N 48.7W
A98E 15.5N 41.9W 15.8N 44.7W 16.4N 47.3W 17.5N 49.5W
LBAR 15.5N 41.9W 16.2N 44.4W 17.5N 46.8W 19.1N 49.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050716 1800 050717 1800 050718 1800 050719 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.9N 50.3W 22.9N 55.2W 25.9N 59.4W 27.9N 61.2W
BAMM 19.9N 51.0W 22.3N 55.7W 24.8N 60.7W 26.8N 63.8W
A98E 19.1N 51.6W 22.5N 56.1W 26.2N 60.1W 28.9N 61.1W
LBAR 20.7N 51.9W 25.3N 56.1W 30.2N 57.5W 31.3N 52.3W
SHIP 45KTS 55KTS 59KTS 60KTS
DSHP 45KTS 55KTS 59KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 41.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 39.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 35.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....


Image
Last edited by Wnghs2007 on Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#2 Postby P.K. » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:09 pm

Hmmm. I noticed this afernoon that 99L had been dropped by the NRL which is strange given those models. (It is still on the FNMOC page though)
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#3 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:10 pm

Could it loop like Jeanne?
0 likes   
Top
jax

#4 Postby jax » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:10 pm

Scorpion wrote:Could it loop like Jeanne?


:lol: :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8740
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#5 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:12 pm

Scorpion wrote:Could it loop like Jeanne?


At preasent state it wont survive the cooler waters as it get sweep off to the N and then NE
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:
Contact Wnghs2007

#6 Postby Wnghs2007 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:14 pm

Well, Model map just updated and some of the models are not recurving it anymore but pushing it NW or NNW.
Last edited by Wnghs2007 on Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CFL
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 352
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:12 pm
Location: Alabama

#7 Postby CFL » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:16 pm

Love those fish! :D
0 likes   
Top
dgparent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 82
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:45 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC

#8 Postby dgparent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:17 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:Well Model map just updated and some of the models are not recurving it anymore but pushing it NW or NNW.


What is the "Well Model Map" ??
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BonesXL
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 148
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 10:17 am
Location: Homestead, Florida
Contact:
Contact BonesXL

#9 Postby BonesXL » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:18 pm

It's a little interesting on how its not looping north. All the models had it pretty much looping north. I wondered what changed?
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#10 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:24 pm

Can you say FISH?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#11 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:38 pm

Image

Convection surely has increased over the past hours.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:
Contact Wnghs2007

#12 Postby Wnghs2007 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:39 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Convection surely has increased over the past hours.


There is a monster on the right side of the screen about to come off Africa.
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#13 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:51 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Convection surely has increased over the past hours.


There is a monster on the right side of the screen about to come off Africa.


Once August/September roll around those are really gonna be big monsters.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:
Contact Wnghs2007

#14 Postby Wnghs2007 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:52 pm

BUMP!

Invest 99 L is back up on the NRL's main page

CLICK HERE FOR 99 L on NRL main
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:
Contact Wnghs2007

#15 Postby Wnghs2007 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:56 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Once August/September roll around those are really gonna be big monsters.

<RICKY>



Yes they are, heck even now its producing some like Emily, Dennis, etc...
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#16 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:57 pm

NRL still says Emily is at 50 kt and 1003 mb, LOL, I think they had a glitch. :lol:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#17 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 14, 2005 3:19 pm

99L is becoming better oreganized...With signs of a LLC starting to form on Visible this afternoon. Convection forming to the northeast quad...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hurricane2000 and 66 guests