Emily Resumes A West Track After Islands

[Sanibel]

There was no topic on this important occurrence, so I started a new one.


Emily did a jog around the islands but has now trended north of due west under the ridge as predicted. It is presently lifting slightly N in a very mild curve. Heading is somewhere around 275 degrees.


Many people are saying Emily is like Charley with its tight wind radius. Funny because when it first developed I noted that it looked like Charley with that main 'dot' in the middle of the bands.

Like Dennis, another storm at 100mph without an eye! 100mph should have an eye by now.

The official track has this lifting trend continue under the High all the way to Yucatan. With this kind of a track, any sustained veer has great significance.

The center is warming slightly in the graveyard zone, but it could just be another diurnal pulse. 100mph already, under unfavorable conditions, suggests a possible high-end intensity storm further west in the Caribbean...

[jasons2k]

[quote="Sanibel"] With this kind of a track, any sustained veer has great significance.[quote]

That seems to be the moral of the story here.....

And this is all starting to seem like "Groundhog Day" after last week

[Stratusxpeye]

The ridge is huge storng and as far west as LA/TX Coast. I was wondering how long this is suppose to last and if this is normal? I heard alot about the bermuda high being just off shore off florida allowing us to get all these Canes. My ? is if this is going to stay like this. Is this an ever changing high or does it set up a pattern in summer? Thank you

[Sanibel]

Beats me?


My thought was, if the High is so far west, in August CV storms will slip by it out to sea to the east. OR, we'll see a weird tracker that starts north but gets pulled Betsy-like back south and around the High. (I think it was Betsy)

[Swimdude]

With this kind of a track, any sustained veer has great significance.

That seems to be the moral of the story here.....

And this is all starting to seem like "Groundhog Day" after last week

Hmmm I have a sudden urge to sing a Sonny and Cher song... I got you babe... I got you babe...

Back on topic. What's the chance of this being a Texas storm, do you think?

[hicksta]

The ridge is huge storng and as far west as LA/TX Coast. I was wondering how long this is suppose to last and if this is normal? I heard alot about the bermuda high being just off shore off florida allowing us to get all these Canes. My ? is if this is going to stay like this. Is this an ever changing high or does it set up a pattern in summer? Thank you

whats the map

[Sanibel]

Still low-tracking west at around 275 degrees!

[jax]

Still low-tracking west at around 275 degrees!

wobble

[cycloneye]

Still low-tracking west at around 275 degrees!

285 per models.

[jasons2k]

With this kind of a track, any sustained veer has great significance.

That seems to be the moral of the story here.....

And this is all starting to seem like "Groundhog Day" after last week

Hmmm I have a sudden urge to sing a Sonny and Cher song... I got you babe... I got you babe...

Back on topic. What's the chance of this being a Texas storm, do you think?

It's still way to early to say with any certainty, but the models are very well clustered to the south, so maybe 30%, probably less than 10% for the upper coast (houston/galveston) at THIS time. That could change at a moment's notice.

[jax]

Still low-tracking west at around 275 degrees!

285 per models.

and per recon... it was in the discussion...