Eastern Cuba Trough

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TampaFl
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Eastern Cuba Trough

#1 Postby TampaFl » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:28 am

Looking at the WV loop, there appears to be an UTT over Eastern Cuba and it also appears to be dropping southward. Will this have an effect on the future track & strength of Emily? Thoughts and comments welcomed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

Robert 8-)
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#2 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:31 am

It's supposed to be retrograding - if that happens, the main effect would be to ventilate Emily.
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#3 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:34 am

good question....i dunno....here is one for ya...will she outrun the ridge that is suppose to build in??
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#4 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jul 14, 2005 8:39 am

deltadog03 wrote:good question....i dunno....here is one for ya...will she outrun the ridge that is suppose to build in??


Don't see that happening. This is a straight shot to the Yucatan. Might be some prospect for a slight northward bend after that, too early to tell. My feeling right now is extreme southern Texas for final landfall. How strong depends on just how much she loses over Yucatan (which I think she'll hit as a major).

Jan
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#5 Postby philsmith76 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:02 pm

The WV - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html - shows some spinning around north and east of Cuba. Will this develop?
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#6 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:34 pm

That is typical with a west moving cane.
The northeast part of the trough is lifting out and bridging.
A ULL cut off from the bottom of the trough and is rolling west.
The Ull will probably only help ventilate its pretty far west of Emily.

What is a little disturbing is that energy from Dennis is pinching
down and splitting off the western side of the ridge over the gulf and sending it spinning off to the southwest.

Looks like the high pressure dome over Emily may bridge with the eastern part of the ridge and help the ridge build back west again.

We are still days out from landfall and I heard some talk of a second trough but there is likely to be one heck of a high pressure dome over Emily by the time it gets there.
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#7 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 14, 2005 3:30 pm

I think it is noteworthy that the clouds to the west of Emily, around
14/74 are moving North. It looks like the ridge is flattening the
trof/ull - look at 25/74

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Given the strength of the ridge, I doubt this will make any significant
change in the overall path of Emily, but these things do happen.
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