Prediction: 10-15 hurricanes

[K-Jack Bechthold]

I predict that there will be between 10 to 15 tropical hurricanes this year. Let me explain why.

Last year was considered a bad hurricane year, but the first named tropical storm wasn't until July 31. Furthermore, there were a total of 15 named storms last year, 4 of which were hurricanes.

So far this year, we have had 5 named storms, 2 of which are hurricanes, and we aren't even half way through July.

It appears likely that every major tropical storm from here on out this season will turn into a hurricane.

Any thoughts?

[Rainband]

The way this year is going so far, I wouldn't be shocked by anything. BTW Welcome to S2K!!!

[Swimdude]

Yup, I've got some thoughts.

First, welcome to Storm2K.

Second, I believe you're wrong. 15 Hurricanes? Not likely.

Third, let me explain why I believe you're incorrect. Because you are. There weren't 4 hurricanes last year; there were 8. In fact, I have no idea how you got 4, seeing as there were 6 major hurricanes.

Fourth, the chance of EVERY tropical storm becoming a hurricane isn't likely. Cindy and Arlene for example. Both 70 mph wind tropical storms. Neither made it to hurricane status, though they were both close.

Fifth, sorry to sound so harsh, but do your research. Here's a starting point...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Rainband]

Yup, I've got some thoughts.

First, welcome to Storm2K.

Second, I believe you're wrong. 15 Hurricanes? Not likely.

Third, let me explain why I believe you're incorrect. Because you are. There weren't 4 hurricanes last year; there were 8. In fact, I have no idea how you got 4, seeing as there were 6 major hurricanes.

Fourth, the chance of EVERY tropical storm becoming a hurricane isn't likely. Cindy and Arlene for example. Both 70 mph wind tropical storms. Neither made it to hurricane status, though they were both close.

Fifth, sorry to sound so harsh, but do your research. Here's a starting point...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Well in his defense, So far this year isn't following climatology so why should it follow any of the research established by the trends of previous years. Like I said the records are being broken every year and this year seems to be shaping up to be worse than last. Anything is possible..probable???..time will tell. With records being broken and "trends" being disproved..it seems to me IMHO that the tropics have a mind of their own and the teachers of the past may be come the students in years to come.

[WeatherEmperor]

I do not know if we can get that many, but based on how this season has started it would not surprise me at all. I mean that.

<RICKY>

[K-Jack Bechthold]

Sorry about the lack of research. I'm pretty new to this weather thing, and just had my numbers wrong. Thanks for the info that I can look at.

But I do stand by the prediction of between 10 to 15 hurricanes.

We'll see what happens!

[Steve]

>>Third, let me explain why I believe you're incorrect. Because you are.

Ooof. You plan on putting some horns on that fish or turning that cross upside down?

[alicia-w]

Im willing to entertain the possibility that this season will be entirely different from anything we've experienced before. Sounds interesting.

welcome to S2K.

[txs]

Put me in the pool for named storms this year ending with the name Beta.

[joseph01]

Im willing to entertain the possibility that this season will be entirely different from anything we've experienced before. Sounds interesting.

welcome to S2K.

I agree, especially if you actually read what he said, which is "10 to 15". Big difference.

And ditto the Storm2K welcome.

[patsmsg]

Yup, I've got some thoughts.
<snip>
First, welcome to Storm2K.

Second, I believe you're wrong. 15 Hurricanes? Not likely.

I don't think he's wrong, I think you are. (No offense intended)
He never said 15, he said 10-15, which includes 10 and does not mean there will be 15 necessarily. You are apparently stating there were 8 last year and there cannot possibly be 10 this year if you disagree.

Is that your assertion?

[patsmsg]

<snip>
But I do stand by the prediction of between 10 to 15 hurricanes.
<snip>

Way to go!

[vbhoutex]

I predict that there will be between 10 to 15 tropical hurricanes this year. Let me explain why.

Last year was considered a bad hurricane year, but the first named tropical storm wasn't until July 31. Furthermore, there were a total of 15 named storms last year, 4 of which were hurricanes.

So far this year, we have had 5 named storms, 2 of which are hurricanes, and we aren't even half way through July.

It appears likely that every major tropical storm from here on out this season will turn into a hurricane.

Any thoughts?

I would be interested in your thoughts on the totals for the year, not just how many hurricnaes. How many named storms, etc.?

[K-Jack Bechthold]

I would be interested in your thoughts on the totals for the year, not just how many hurricnaes. How many named storms, etc.?

If I were to make a prediction (and keep in mind, I don't actually know a whole lot about weather, though I am quite good at making predictions in general) I would say that most of the storms will turn into hurricanes (except near the very end of the season, of course).

In essence, I think 10-15 hurricanes (including the two we already have) followed by 2-3 tropical storms at the end. When you include the tropical storms we've already had, I guess it adds up to somewhere between 15-20 storms total.

For what it's worth, that's my prediction. And for what it's also worth, I didn't know much about baseball in 1990, but in the middle of the season I predicted the Reds would win the world series. I was ten yrs old at the time, and my brother (a huge baseball fan) had to pay me 40 dollars.

Thank you all for the kind welcome!

[patsmsg]

We've been needing a good psychic out here.