July 14th 12z Global Models - Emily

[gkrangers]

The 12z UKMET appears fairly steady in its track, shifted slightly south near landfall. With a landfall in extreme upper Mexico. This after it passes just off the northern tip of the Yucatan.

12z NOGAPS has shfited its carribbean track some to the north, impacting Jamaica...then the central/northern Yucatan peninsula. Then W/WNW into the central part of the mexican gulf coastline.

The 12z GFS remains mainly unchanged. I think theres a slight northern shift in the Carribbean track as compared to 12 hours ago. Just south of Jamaica towards the central Yucatan, into the BOC, and WNW into the Mexican coast. Similar to the NOGAPS IMO.

[Scorpion]

Its going right where I went on a cruise last month. God help them .

[jax]

Its going right where I went on a cruise last month. God help them .

it's forcast to go...

[clfenwi]

NOGAPS...slightly north of prev track starting at 48 h (but near identical to prev 12Z track)...timing virtually unchanged...mid-Yucatan landfall at 96 h...off-shore at 108 h...landfall ivo Tampico at 144 h...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005071412

GFS...this run decides to draw a closed isobar around Emily...similar track to previous run although slightly slower by day 3 or so... mid-Yucatan landfall b/t 78 and 84 h...then the creeping begins...slooowly across BOC...landfall ivo Tampico at 150h...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

UKMET...slightly slower and further south than previous run... puts Jamaica in Emily's northeast quadrant during 48h-54h...across the tip of Yucatan at 84 h...moving northwest towards Rio Grande/S Texas in last frame displayed (108 h)...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Canadian...adjacent to Jamaican east coast at 36 h...west of Jamaica at 60 h...loses the low after that...inverted trough over Cuba at 72 hr... trough implies Rio Grand landfall at 96h...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

[dwg71]

There seems to be consensous amongst most all models that Mexico is the path of choice, once through Yuc and finally towards Tampico..

[Stormcenter]

There seems to be consensous amongst most all models that Mexico is the path of choice, once through Yuc and finally towards Tampico..

O.K. then everybody go back to work and lets quit wasting our time tracking Emily since the models have spoken. The storm is going into Mexico and no one in the U.S. has to worry.

[gkrangers]

There seems to be consensous amongst most all models that Mexico is the path of choice, once through Yuc and finally towards Tampico..

O.K. then everybody go back to work and lets quit wasting our time tracking Emily since the models have spoken. The storm is going into Mexico and no one in the U.S. has to worry.

Those in South Texas should watch things...but its staying hot and dry in Houston, so don't worry.

[dwg71]

There seems to be consensous amongst most all models that Mexico is the path of choice, once through Yuc and finally towards Tampico..

O.K. then everybody go back to work and lets quit wasting our time tracking Emily since the models have spoken. The storm is going into Mexico and no one in the U.S. has to worry.

No it doesnt mean that, what it does mean is that the models have a pretty good handle on Emily, (like dennis) and we did not see any big sways in the path. I would not expect a large sway one way or the other. Time will tell, but at least I didnt just post "its going to Mexico" and leave. I think that Mexico/extreme S TX is the most plausable track at the moment, as does the NHC...

[LilNoles2005]

There seems to be consensous amongst most all models that Mexico is the path of choice, once through Yuc and finally towards Tampico..

O.K. then everybody go back to work and lets quit wasting our time tracking Emily since the models have spoken. The storm is going into Mexico and no one in the U.S. has to worry.

[Cape Verde]

I hope it's Mexico, but being certain about a hurricane's position more than 5 days out is a little ridiculous.<P>All I'm certain of is that if Emily gets into the Western Gulf, she will encounter even hotter water.<P>I'm tossing in ice cubes every evening, but I can't detect that it's making a difference yet.

[Rainband]

I hope it's Mexico, but being certain about a hurricane's position more than 5 days out is a little ridiculous.<P>All I'm certain of is that if Emily gets into the Western Gulf, she will encounter even hotter water.<P>I'm tossing in ice cubes every evening, but I can't detect that it's making a difference yet.

They pretty much nailed Dennis

[clfenwi]

European...north of prev track initially ...landfall before 96 h between Cozumel and Belize border...sw turn after passing over Yucatan puts Emily IVO Veracruz at 120 h...

[Brent]

I hope it's Mexico, but being certain about a hurricane's position more than 5 days out is a little ridiculous.<P>All I'm certain of is that if Emily gets into the Western Gulf, she will encounter even hotter water.<P>I'm tossing in ice cubes every evening, but I can't detect that it's making a difference yet.

They pretty much nailed Dennis

The problem is... the NHC 5-day track doesn't even go to Mainland Mexico yet. Nothing says it can't make a turn and go into South Texas beyond that.

and just because they nailed Dennis(which was about the simpliest track to forecast I've ever seen, it went between two ridges, duh), doesn't mean we should think they will be precise with Emily. 5-day track errors are still 300 miles. With Cindy the initial prediction was Galveston and we see where they wound up.

[wxwatcher91]

It's really too early to talk about Tex or Mex yet ... Let's see where it hits on the peninsula...

I have to go for a few... big storm here right now

[Rainband]

I hope it's Mexico, but being certain about a hurricane's position more than 5 days out is a little ridiculous.<P>All I'm certain of is that if Emily gets into the Western Gulf, she will encounter even hotter water.<P>I'm tossing in ice cubes every evening, but I can't detect that it's making a difference yet.

They pretty much nailed Dennis

The problem is... the NHC 5-day track doesn't even go to Mainland Mexico yet. Nothing says it can't make a turn and go into South Texas beyond that.

and just because they nailed Dennis(which was about the simpliest track to forecast I've ever seen, it went between two ridges, duh), doesn't mean we should think they will be precise with Emily. 5-day track errors are still 300 miles. With Cindy the initial prediction was Galveston and we see where they wound up.

yeah but the strength of the ridge wasn't that easy to predict and The models were all over with Dennis that was my point. The models have been very close together in this case. Like I said I trust the NHC.