I think 99L will develop

#21 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:30 am

Remember Emily the day or two before it developed? It looked sort of like that. It had a circulation, and when the convection started firing, it developed pretty quickly. The same could happen with this system. Once it starts generating convection, anything is possible.

#22 Postby **wx247** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:31 am

I have been one who has been quick to say no development for 99L and I stand by that, at least for the next 36 to 48 hours. I just don't see anything remotely resembling something getting its act together... far, far from it.

boca · #23 Postby **boca** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:34 am

99L is in its 1st formative stages

#24 Postby **msbee** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:36 am

it's there!

ThunderMate · #25 Postby **ThunderMate** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:47 am

99L should continue west as with this imagehttp://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif of the mid-atlantic ridge.

ThunderMate · #26 Postby **ThunderMate** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:48 am

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif

#27 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:25 am

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:28 am

281
ABNT20 KNHC 141509
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILY...LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

#29 Postby **Trader Ron** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:34 am

cycloneye wrote:281
ABNT20 KNHC 141509
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILY...LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

It's not a given it will develop.

Weatherboy1 · #30 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:43 am

Looks like there's an ULL to 99's north that is shearing the system and preventing it from developing. If he keeps heading west, however, he should soon find his way into a less-hostile environment. At that point, convection could increase and we could slowly see development. But I doubt much will happen until then.

-Mike

Steve H. · #31 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:50 am

Actually, I think 99L is beginning to show some signs of Life. More convection is evident, as well as circulation. This should slowly develop as it continues westward. BTW Luis, can you navigate to the backup site from the main NRL site and how? Thanks in advance.

#32 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:52 am

Steve H. wrote:Actually, I think 99L is beginning to show some signs of Life. More convection is evident, as well as circulation. This should slowly develop as it continues westward. BTW Luis, can you navigate to the backup site from the main NRL site and how? Thanks in advance.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

There is a big outflow boundarie shooting out of 99.

#33 Postby **mascpa** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:05 pm

...at least not for the next several days. In fact, I'm hoping we're going to have a little breather after Emily gets done with her run.

Steve H. · #34 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:09 pm

I'm not exactly holding my breath over Emily, she's pretty much a slam dunk. This time Florida isn't getting slam dunked.

Scorpion · #35 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:13 pm

Im only watching Emily because its going to impact areas that I recently visited and my friends are going on a cruise in that vicinity.

Patrick99 · #36 Postby **Patrick99** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:20 pm

Wow, that is a big outflow boundary. I'm not giving up on it yet, though.

#37 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Steve H. wrote:Actually, I think 99L is beginning to show some signs of Life. More convection is evident, as well as circulation. This should slowly develop as it continues westward. BTW Luis, can you navigate to the backup site from the main NRL site and how? Thanks in advance.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

There is a big outflow boundarie shooting out of 99.

Cycloneye do you think that Emily's outflow could cause shear to 99L as 99L moves further west? Im looking at the WV loop and it looks as if the outflow is almost there.

<RICKY>

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat3.html

#38 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:28 pm

Tropical wave over the central atlc along 41w S of 21n with a
1012 mb low along the wave near 15n moving W near 15 kt. This
wave continues to display an impressive satellite signature with
a small area of scattered moderate to strong convection to the N
of the low center from 15.5n-18n between 39w-42w. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted elsewhere
within 300 nm either side of wave axis. Analysis of water vapor
imagery indicates the wave is nearing an upper level trough over
the central atlc which is creating a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. As a result...the low center is expected to take a more
poleward motion during the next 24 hours.

Development may be limited by the northward turn.

I think 99L will develop

ULL shearing it for now

I don't thik 99L will develop

Who is online