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senorpepr
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#101 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:38 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 40
Ob #01 Location: 154 mi WNW of Saint George's, Grenada
Ob #01: Time: 16:25:00Z; 12.5°N 66°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: NNE (19°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #02: Time: 16:25:30Z; 12.4°N 66°W; PA: 10023 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: NNE (26°) @ 33 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #03: Time: 16:26:00Z; 12.4°N 66°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: NNE (32°) @ 26 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #04: Time: 16:26:30Z; 12.4°N 66°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: NNE (29°) @ 25 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #05: Time: 16:27:00Z; 12.3°N 66°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: NNE (15°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #06: Time: 16:27:30Z; 12.3°N 66°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: N (1°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #07: Time: 16:28:00Z; 12.3°N 66°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: N (7°) @ 22 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #08: Time: 16:28:30Z; 12.2°N 66°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: NNE (13°) @ 20 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #09: Time: 16:29:00Z; 12.2°N 66°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: N (360°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #10: Time: 16:29:30Z; 12.2°N 66°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: N (351°) @ 13 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #11: Time: 16:30:00Z; 12.1°N 66°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: NNW (327°) @ 10 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #12: Time: 16:30:30Z; 12.1°N 66.1°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: NW (314°) @ 10 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #13: Time: 16:31:00Z; 12.1°N 66.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: NNW (327°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #14: Time: 16:31:30Z; 12°N 66.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #15: Time: 16:32:00Z; 12°N 66.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: NW (306°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #16: Time: 16:32:30Z; 12°N 66.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #17: Time: 16:33:00Z; 12°N 66.1°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 132 ft; Wind: NW (323°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #18: Time: 16:33:30Z; 11.9°N 66.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: NNW (328°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #19: Time: 16:34:00Z; 11.9°N 66.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: NNW (329°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #20: Time: 16:34:30Z; 11.9°N 66.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: NNW (333°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F

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#102 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:48 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 41
Ob #01 Location: 111 mi NE of Caracas, Venezuela
Ob #01: Time: 16:35:00Z; 11.8°N 66.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: NNW (333°) @ 10 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #02: Time: 16:35:30Z; 11.8°N 66.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: NNW (335°) @ 9 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #03: Time: 16:36:00Z; 11.8°N 66.1°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: NNW (334°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #04: Time: 16:36:30Z; 11.7°N 66.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #05: Time: 16:37:00Z; 11.7°N 66.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #06: Time: 16:37:30Z; 11.7°N 66.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: NW (316°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #07: Time: 16:38:00Z; 11.6°N 66.1°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: N (353°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #08: Time: 16:38:30Z; 11.6°N 66.1°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: NNW (336°) @ 10 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #09: Time: 16:39:00Z; 11.6°N 66.1°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: NW (319°) @ 10 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #10: Time: 16:39:30Z; 11.6°N 66.2°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: N (359°) @ 8 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #11: Time: 16:40:00Z; 11.6°N 66.2°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: NW (321°) @ 7 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 33°F
Ob #12: Time: 16:40:30Z; 11.6°N 66.2°W; PA: 10020 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: WNW (296°) @ 7 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 33°F
Ob #13: Time: 16:41:00Z; 11.6°N 66.2°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: NNW (333°) @ 6 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 33°F
Ob #14: Time: 16:41:30Z; 11.6°N 66.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: N (354°) @ 8 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 33°F
Ob #15: Time: 16:42:00Z; 11.7°N 66.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: NW (317°) @ 10 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #16: Time: 16:42:30Z; 11.7°N 66.1°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: WNW (303°) @ 9 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 33°F
Ob #17: Time: 16:43:00Z; 11.7°N 66.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 13 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #18: Time: 16:43:30Z; 11.7°N 66°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: WNW (294°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #19: Time: 16:44:00Z; 11.7°N 66°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 13 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #20: Time: 16:44:30Z; 11.8°N 66°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: WNW (287°) @ 13 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 34°F
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#103 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:54 am

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 22
Time: 1642Z
Latitude: 11.7°N
Longitude: 66.1°W
Location: 98 mi NNE of Caracas, Venezuela
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: WNW (300°) @ 12 mph
Temperature: 46°F
Dewpoint: 46°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: INBOUND SW LEG
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#104 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:57 am

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 23
Time: 1700Z
Latitude: 11.7°N
Longitude: 66°W
Location: 102 mi NE of Caracas, Venezuela
Surface: 1010 mb; Temp: 77°F; Dewpt: 68°F; WSW (240°) @ 9 mph
1000mb height: 302 ft; Temp: 76°F; Dewpt: 61°F; WSW (250°) @ 9 mph
925mb height: 2543 ft; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 43°F; NNW (340°) @ 9 mph
850mb height: 1654 ft; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 32°F; NNE (20°) @ 9 mph
700mb height: 10305 ft; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 32°F; WNW (290°) @ 14 mph
SPL 1170N06604W 1647 MBL WND 25506 AEV 20507 DLM WND 33008
010720 WL150 24508 075
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#105 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:58 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 42
Ob #01 Location: 150 mi W of Saint George's, Grenada
Ob #01: Time: 16:45:00Z; 11.8°N 66°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: WNW (295°) @ 13 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #02: Time: 16:45:30Z; 11.8°N 66°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #03: Time: 16:46:00Z; 11.8°N 65.9°W; PA: 10026 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 9 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #04: Time: 16:46:30Z; 11.9°N 65.9°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: WNW (303°) @ 12 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #05: Time: 16:47:00Z; 11.9°N 65.9°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 119 ft; Wind: NW (304°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #06: Time: 16:47:30Z; 11.9°N 65.9°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 122 ft; Wind: WNW (289°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #07: Time: 16:48:00Z; 11.9°N 65.8°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: WNW (290°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #08: Time: 16:48:30Z; 11.9°N 65.8°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: WNW (292°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #09: Time: 16:49:00Z; 12°N 65.8°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #10: Time: 16:49:30Z; 12°N 65.8°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: WNW (296°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #11: Time: 16:50:00Z; 12°N 65.8°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: WNW (293°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #12: Time: 16:50:30Z; 12°N 65.7°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 126 ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #13: Time: 16:51:00Z; 12°N 65.7°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #14: Time: 16:51:30Z; 12.1°N 65.7°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 123 ft; Wind: NW (314°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #15: Time: 16:52:00Z; 12.1°N 65.7°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 122 ft; Wind: NW (324°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #16: Time: 16:52:30Z; 12.1°N 65.7°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 120 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #17: Time: 16:53:00Z; 12.1°N 65.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 120 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #18: Time: 16:53:30Z; 12.2°N 65.6°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 119 ft; Wind: NW (307°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #19: Time: 16:54:00Z; 12.2°N 65.6°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 117 ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #20: Time: 16:54:30Z; 12.2°N 65.6°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 116 ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 18 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
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#106 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:06 pm

gkrangers wrote:925mb height: 1739 ft; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 32°F; E (100°) @ 135 mph

Using 90% reduction, thats 120MPH.
Using 80% reduction, thats 110MPH.


Last night they took 10% from the 925 mb wind (from the dropsonde) and rounded down (to the nearest multiple of 5)...so unless there is something they retrospectively found something wrong with that, they would be going 120 mph winds at the surface...
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#107 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:07 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 43
Ob #01 Location: 184 mi W of Saint George's, Grenada
Ob #01: Time: 16:55:00Z; 12.2°N 65.5°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 116 ft; Wind: WNW (292°) @ 18 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #02: Time: 16:55:30Z; 12.2°N 65.5°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 115 ft; Wind: WNW (291°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #03: Time: 16:56:00Z; 12.3°N 65.5°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 113 ft; Wind: WNW (288°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #04: Time: 16:56:30Z; 12.3°N 65.5°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 113 ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #05: Time: 16:57:00Z; 12.3°N 65.5°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 113 ft; Wind: NW (312°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #06: Time: 16:57:30Z; 12.3°N 65.4°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 112 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #07: Time: 16:58:00Z; 12.3°N 65.4°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 111 ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #08: Time: 16:58:30Z; 12.4°N 65.4°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 109 ft; Wind: WNW (294°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #09: Time: 16:59:00Z; 12.4°N 65.4°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 108 ft; Wind: WNW (287°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #10: Time: 16:59:30Z; 12.4°N 65.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 109 ft; Wind: WNW (295°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #11: Time: 17:00:00Z; 12.4°N 65.3°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 107 ft; Wind: NW (304°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #12: Time: 17:00:30Z; 12.5°N 65.3°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 104 ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #13: Time: 17:01:00Z; 12.5°N 65.3°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 102 ft; Wind: WNW (293°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #14: Time: 17:01:30Z; 12.5°N 65.3°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 100 ft; Wind: WNW (296°) @ 20 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #15: Time: 17:02:00Z; 12.5°N 65.2°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 97 ft; Wind: WNW (290°) @ 22 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #16: Time: 17:02:30Z; 12.5°N 65.2°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 93 ft; Wind: WNW (287°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #17: Time: 17:03:00Z; 12.6°N 65.2°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 91 ft; Wind: WNW (284°) @ 22 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #18: Time: 17:03:30Z; 12.6°N 65.2°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 88 ft; Wind: WNW (292°) @ 23 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #19: Time: 17:04:00Z; 12.6°N 65.2°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: 83 ft; Wind: WNW (292°) @ 28 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #20: Time: 17:04:30Z; 12.6°N 65.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 82 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 29 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 37°F
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#108 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:07 pm

Doesnt make sense with 976 mb pressure though.
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#109 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:07 pm

clfenwi wrote:
gkrangers wrote:925mb height: 1739 ft; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 32°F; E (100°) @ 135 mph

Using 90% reduction, thats 120MPH.
Using 80% reduction, thats 110MPH.


Last night they took 10% from the 925 mb wind (from the dropsonde) and rounded down (to the nearest multiple of 5)...so unless there is something they retrospectively found something wrong with that, they would be going 120 mph winds at the surface...
Latest satellite is very impressive. They are on their way towards a center pass again..so we'll see what they come up with.
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#110 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 44
Ob #01 Location: 202 mi NE of Caracas, Venezuela
Ob #01: Time: 17:05:00Z; 12.7°N 65.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 74 ft; Wind: NW (312°) @ 33 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #02: Time: 17:05:30Z; 12.7°N 65.1°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 70 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #03: Time: 17:06:00Z; 12.7°N 65.1°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 63 ft; Wind: NW (319°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #04: Time: 17:06:30Z; 12.7°N 65.1°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #05: Time: 17:07:00Z; 12.7°N 65°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 46 ft; Wind: NW (312°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #06: Time: 17:07:30Z; 12.8°N 65°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 35 ft; Wind: NW (325°) @ 46 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #07: Time: 17:08:00Z; 12.8°N 65°W; PA: 10020 ft; D-Value: 19 ft; Wind: NW (324°) @ 53 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #08: Time: 17:08:30Z; 12.8°N 65°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 1 ft; Wind: NW (323°) @ 60 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #09: Time: 17:09:00Z; 12.8°N 65°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: -24 ft; Wind: NW (323°) @ 73 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #10: Time: 17:09:30Z; 12.8°N 64.9°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: -54 ft; Wind: NW (323°) @ 74 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #11: Time: 17:10:00Z; 12.9°N 64.9°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: -98 ft; Wind: NNW (331°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #12: Time: 17:10:30Z; 12.9°N 64.9°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: -126 ft; Wind: N (359°) @ 35 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #13: Time: 17:11:00Z; 12.9°N 64.9°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -143 ft; Wind: NNE (20°) @ 18 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #14: Time: 17:11:30Z; 12.9°N 64.8°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: -140 ft; Wind: SSW (198°) @ 6 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #15: Time: 17:12:00Z; 12.9°N 64.8°W; PA: 10016 ft; D-Value: -134 ft; Wind: SSW (205°) @ 28 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #16: Time: 17:12:30Z; 12.9°N 64.8°W; PA: 9925 ft; D-Value: -94 ft; Wind: SSW (208°) @ 84 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 48°F
Ob #17: Time: 17:13:00Z; 12.9°N 64.8°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -77 ft; Wind: S (186°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 49°F
Ob #18: Time: 17:13:30Z; 12.9°N 64.7°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -41 ft; Wind: S (173°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #19: Time: 17:14:00Z; 12.9°N 64.7°W; PA: 9970 ft; D-Value: -19 ft; Wind: SSE (165°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #20: Time: 17:14:30Z; 13°N 64.7°W; PA: 10020 ft; D-Value: 11 ft; Wind: SSE (159°) @ 96 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 47°F
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#111 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:17 pm

Supports the 100 mph winds.
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#112 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:19 pm

Scorpion wrote:Doesnt make sense with 976 mb pressure though.


992 mb didn't support 90 mph winds last night either...
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#113 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:23 pm

Scorpion wrote:Supports the 100 mph winds.


And you said last night it was dead.
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#114 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:26 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 45
Ob #01 Location: 123 mi NW of Saint George's, Grenada
Ob #01: Time: 17:15:00Z; 13°N 64.7°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 31 ft; Wind: SSE (153°) @ 90 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #02: Time: 17:15:30Z; 13°N 64.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 43 ft; Wind: SSE (151°) @ 86 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #03: Time: 17:16:00Z; 13°N 64.6°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 54 ft; Wind: SSE (151°) @ 86 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #04: Time: 17:16:30Z; 13.1°N 64.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 65 ft; Wind: SSE (151°) @ 84 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #05: Time: 17:17:00Z; 13.1°N 64.6°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 73 ft; Wind: SSE (150°) @ 79 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #06: Time: 17:17:30Z; 13.1°N 64.5°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 78 ft; Wind: SSE (147°) @ 76 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #07: Time: 17:18:00Z; 13.1°N 64.5°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 82 ft; Wind: SSE (147°) @ 73 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #08: Time: 17:18:30Z; 13.1°N 64.5°W; PA: 10026 ft; D-Value: 86 ft; Wind: SE (145°) @ 68 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #09: Time: 17:19:00Z; 13.2°N 64.5°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 87 ft; Wind: SE (143°) @ 65 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #10: Time: 17:19:30Z; 13.2°N 64.5°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: 88 ft; Wind: SSE (147°) @ 71 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #11: Time: 17:20:00Z; 13.2°N 64.4°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: 91 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 74 mph; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #12: Time: 17:20:30Z; 13.2°N 64.4°W; PA: 10026 ft; D-Value: 95 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 74 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #13: Time: 17:21:00Z; 13.3°N 64.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 99 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 73 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #14: Time: 17:21:30Z; 13.3°N 64.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 103 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 77 mph; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #15: Time: 17:22:00Z; 13.3°N 64.4°W; PA: 10020 ft; D-Value: 107 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 77 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #16: Time: 17:22:30Z; 13.3°N 64.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 110 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 74 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #17: Time: 17:23:00Z; 13.3°N 64.3°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 113 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 71 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #18: Time: 17:23:30Z; 13.4°N 64.3°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 116 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #19: Time: 17:24:00Z; 13.4°N 64.3°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 118 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #20: Time: 17:24:30Z; 13.4°N 64.3°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 120 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 43°F
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#115 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:28 pm

Scorpion wrote:Doesnt make sense with 976 mb pressure though.


I don't think we really have the past history to say what pressure a category three storm 'should have at this position at this time of the year... in this general area Ivan went cat 3 at 963 mb, but that was early September, of course...it all depends on what the norm for the surrounding enviroment is... 888 millibars wouldn't mean much if the mean slp for the area at that time of year was say, 895 mb...
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#116 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:31 pm

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 25
Time: 1700Z
Latitude: 12.9°N
Longitude: 64.8°W
Location: 213 mi WNW of Saint George's, Grenada
Surface: 974 mb; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 52°F; SE (130°) @ 36 mph
1000mb height: 2418 ft; Temp: N/A°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
925mb height: 1486 ft; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 52°F; SSE (150°) @ 36 mph
850mb height: 3924 ft; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 133°F; SSE (160°) @ 23 mph
700mb height: 9403 ft; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 93°F; SSW (200°) @ 9 mph
EYE SPL 1289N06484W 1715 MBL WND 14532 AEV 20507 DLM WND 16
022 973717 WL150 14531 082
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#117 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:36 pm

When its 970 then i'll believe the winds, but now I think the actual surface winds are around 90-95.
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#118 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:37 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 46
Ob #01 Location: 167 mi NW of Saint George's, Grenada
Ob #01: Time: 17:25:00Z; 13.4°N 64.2°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 121 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 67 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #02: Time: 17:25:30Z; 13.4°N 64.2°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 122 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 66 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #03: Time: 17:26:00Z; 13.5°N 64.2°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 124 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 65 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #04: Time: 17:26:30Z; 13.5°N 64.2°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 127 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 63 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #05: Time: 17:27:00Z; 13.5°N 64.2°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 128 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 62 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #06: Time: 17:27:30Z; 13.5°N 64.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 130 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #07: Time: 17:28:00Z; 13.5°N 64.1°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 132 ft; Wind: SE (131°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #08: Time: 17:28:30Z; 13.6°N 64.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 134 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 62 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #09: Time: 17:29:00Z; 13.6°N 64.1°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: 134 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 63 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #10: Time: 17:29:30Z; 13.6°N 64.1°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 134 ft; Wind: SE (130°) @ 63 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #11: Time: 17:30:00Z; 13.6°N 64°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 135 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 62 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #12: Time: 17:30:30Z; 13.7°N 64°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 135 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 60 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #13: Time: 17:31:00Z; 13.7°N 64°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 136 ft; Wind: SE (131°) @ 58 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #14: Time: 17:31:30Z; 13.7°N 64°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: SE (130°) @ 54 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #15: Time: 17:32:00Z; 13.7°N 64°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 137 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 54 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #16: Time: 17:32:30Z; 13.7°N 63.9°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 139 ft; Wind: SE (130°) @ 56 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #17: Time: 17:33:00Z; 13.8°N 63.9°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 139 ft; Wind: SE (130°) @ 58 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #18: Time: 17:33:30Z; 13.8°N 63.9°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 140 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 54 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #19: Time: 17:34:00Z; 13.8°N 63.9°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 141 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 52 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #20: Time: 17:34:30Z; 13.8°N 63.9°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 141 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 51 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 40°F
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#119 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:37 pm

Scorpion wrote:When its 970 then i'll believe the winds, but now I think the actual surface winds are around 90-95.


:roll:

Pressure is down 18 mb since last night when it had 90 mph winds.
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#120 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:37 pm

Scorpion wrote:When its 970 then i'll believe the winds, but now I think the actual surface winds are around 90-95.
I find it funny that recon is the best source of information we have, and people still don't take it seriously.
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