Bye Bye Yucatan.....

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I told my co-worker yesterday that she shouldn't go on her planned trip to Jamaica this weekend! She flies out today, and the last she heard was that the storm was weaker and going south of the island. I tried to tell her that it could quickly change and that she shouldn't go. But, its her husband's 50th birthday and they wanted to have a family reuinion down there. -she didn't want to change those plans.

Now I hope and pray that they are going to be alright. They are planning on staying with family on the north side of the island from today through Tuesday. She is supposed to be back at work Wednesday, but I fear she could be quite delayed if Emily decides to visit the island.

[cajungal]

Then, why all the computer models trended south and all of them are in agreement with a landfall in Mexico? The furthest north is the UKmet and that the furthest north that one brings it is Brownsville, TX.

[dwg71]

I think the south trend will continue and take Emily closer to Belize...

[dixiebreeze]

I do think someone in the GOM will have to contend with Emily, I don't see her charging into Mexico.

Let me take a wild guess here...

Landfall at Cedar Key???

Can the sarcasm Brent. I don't think anyone knows at this point where Emily will land. Her continuing size will be a big factor IMHO. I doubt Mexico, but N gulf coast of Texas is a strong possibility.

[vbhoutex]

I do think someone in the GOM will have to contend with Emily, I don't see her charging into Mexico.

Let me take a wild guess here...

Landfall at Cedar Key???

Can the sarcasm Brent. I don't think anyone knows at this point where Emily will land. Her continuing size will be a big factor IMHO. I doubt Mexico, but N gulf coast of Texas is a strong possibility.

Hush your mouth!!!!! They'll hear you!!!!

Can 't have that!!! We have a family wedding next weekend(23rd).

[Rainband]

I do think someone in the GOM will have to contend with Emily, I don't see her charging into Mexico.

Let me take a wild guess here...

Landfall at Cedar Key???

Be nice.

[dwg71]

Can the sarcasm Brent. I don't think anyone knows at this point where Emily will land. Her continuing size will be a big factor IMHO. I doubt Mexico, but N gulf coast of Texas is a strong possibility.

I really dont think its that strong, less than 10%. Mexico and Brownsville are strong possibilities.

[stormie_skies]

I wish I knew why people insist on popping into every single thread to post "Mexico!" with absolute certainty, when there is no such thing as certainty this far out. I understand wanting to discuss forcasts and make predictions, but this kind of hit-and-run "game's over" posting doesn't do anyone any good....at best, its annoying, and at worst, it may convince some of our guests to stop paying attention....

JMHO.

[dixiebreeze]

Vbhoutex, I wouldn't wish a hurricane on you for anything -- You're one of the really good guys.

[Rainband]

I wish I knew why people insist on popping into every single thread to post "Mexico!" with absolute certainty, when there is no such thing as certainty this far out. I understand wanting to discuss forcasts and make predictions, but this kind of hit-and-run "game's over" posting doesn't do anyone any good....at best, its annoying, and at worst, it may convince some of our guests to stop paying attention....

JMHO.

Because the National Hurricane Center has been very good with their forecast and that seems the most likely area, at this point. With all due Respect if Texas is threatened ,I am pretty sure everybody, guests included ,will have ample time from their local officials to act as needed. The same could be said why there are so many threads suggesting a Texas Landfall when it's this far out. Some I guess are from the Adrenalin of the excitement of a storm and some from the fear of one. Everybody is entitled to an opinion and only when the Storm makes it's eventual Landfall somewhere will we all know. The bottom line is everybody should be prepared from June on and the past weeks have taught us why. Trust the National Hurricane Center. They know what they are doing

[dixiebreeze]

That's very true, Rainband. I'm very impressed with the accuracy record of the NHC. There is never a claim they can predict a spot on landfall and if come within a 100 miles or so, that pretty darn good in my book.

[Rainband]

That's very true, Rainband. I'm very impressed with the accuracy record of the NHC. There is never a claim they can predict a spot on landfall and if come within a 100 miles or so, that pretty darn good in my book.

I agree. I trust them 100%

[wayoutfront]

I have also noticed that this years NHC discussions are referencing the models more and more, and it appears the models are of increasing importance to them as a trusted tool.

[stormie_skies]

I wish I knew why people insist on popping into every single thread to post "Mexico!" with absolute certainty, when there is no such thing as certainty this far out. I understand wanting to discuss forcasts and make predictions, but this kind of hit-and-run "game's over" posting doesn't do anyone any good....at best, its annoying, and at worst, it may convince some of our guests to stop paying attention....

JMHO.

Because the National Hurricane Center has been very good with their forecast and that seems the most likely area, at this point. With all due Respect if Texas is threatened ,I am pretty sure everybody, guests included ,will have ample time from their local officials to act as needed. The same could be said why there are so many threads suggesting a Texas Landfall when it's this far out. Some I guess are from the Adrenalin of the excitement of a storm and some from the fear of one. Everybody is entitled to an opinion and only when the Storm makes it's eventual Landfall somewhere will we all know. The bottom line is everybody should be prepared from June on and the past weeks have taught us why. Trust the National Hurricane Center. They know what they are doing

Im not by any means saying that I dont trust the NHC - I do very much. And I am not saying that Mexico is not a very, very likely candidate for the final landfall of this system (I think everyone pretty much agrees that it will clip the Yucatan). I guess I just don't see what is constructive about posting the same two or three word post in every thread - no discussion, no reasoning, nothing (and Im not pointing fingers at you here ...or trying to point them at all). It just comes across as rather snippish...like conversation should just stop because now we know exactly where its gonna hit.... and thats not true. If people are doing this in the name of the NHC - I think it is safe to say that we all know where the NHC's forecast is pointing, and I think the NHC itself would be quick to remind people that there is a great deal of uncertainty when dealing with a forecast that is 3+ days out. There is no such thing as a sure final landfall at this point ....there are certainly trends to be observed and predictions to be made.... but it seems a little early to be making definitive statements that the NHC (and any other responsible forecaster) would shy away from making....

Like you said, everyone is entitled to an opinion....and this is just mine...