Emily's end game

[Portastorm]

Since we all like to speculate on eventual landfalls ... and because the strength of the ridge in the tropics appears impressive, we can all carry Emily west-northwest for several days, right?

As for Texas or Mexico ... next question will be (as Dr. Jeff Masters on the Wunderground blog said) will the trough swinging through the middle of the U.S. by Mon-Tues erode the ridge enough to create a more northwest movement? Right now, the last 2 runs of the GFS show a paltry trough at best and Emily would carry into the east central Mexican coastline.

[patsmsg]

I still think this looks like a Yucatan hit.

[HouTXmetro]

So there is a trough expected to swing down?

[Portastorm]

So there is a trough expected to swing down?

I wouldn't say "expected." There is a trough coming across the U.S. early next week ... or should I say "forecasted" to come across. The question is the depth and extent of the trough and how much of the ridge it might erode.

[Portastorm]

For what it's worth, the new 12z run (Thur) shifts the track further northward and progs a landfall just south of Brownsville near the Rio Grande.

[Stephanie]

My boss is going on a missionary trip with his church next Tuesday to Belize. The timing couldn't have been any better!

[canegrl04]

This is not the time for S.Texas folks to relax. Brwonsville is not out of the woods for a strike.I know the consensus seems to be Mexico right now,but things can change

[deltadog03]

i don't think anyone on the TX coast needs to relax...that trough is spliting between the ridge....so, don't count this baby out

[hicksta]

i don't think anyone on the TX coast needs to relax...that trough is spliting between the ridge....so, don't count this baby out

how do you know it is

[Brent]

My boss is going on a missionary trip with his church next Tuesday to Belize. The timing couldn't have been any better!

LOL... he gets to cleanup the mess(although looks like it's going to miss Belize to the north)

[deltadog03]

i don't think anyone on the TX coast needs to relax...that trough is spliting between the ridge....so, don't count this baby out

how do you know it is

because its in the model progs...and, the one most people hate...yeah..jb made mention to this....im not saying a TX landfall is going to happen...i am just saying don't count her out...

[WeatherEmperor]

i don't think anyone on the TX coast needs to relax...that trough is spliting between the ridge....so, don't count this baby out

how do you know it is

I think the reason he said that is because it just is going to be too close to call if Texas is going to be impacted or not. Texas is by no means out of the woods just yet. While they should not jump in panic mode, they should vigilantly keep watching.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

i don't think anyone on the TX coast needs to relax...that trough is spliting between the ridge....so, don't count this baby out

how do you know it is

I think the reason he said that is because it just is going to be too close to call if Texas is going to be impacted or not. Texas is by no means out of the woods just yet. While they should not jump in panic mode, they should vigilantly keep watching.

<RICKY>

LOOK at the FWD disscusion...im not just sayint that

[sprink52]

I think the track is going to be close to the NHC's track. I wonder about the intensity. These storms seem to be sensitive to SST in the near 90 deg. F area. Do we see any thing like that near where she is forecast to eventually make land fall?

[deltadog03]

yeah...the TX coastline

[clfenwi]

I think the track is going to be close to the NHC's track. I wonder about the intensity. These storms seem to be sensitive to SST in the near 90 deg. F area. Do we see any thing like that near where she is forecast to eventually make land fall?

\\

https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/caribbeank10.gif\

and

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/natl_sst_oper0.gif

suggest something like 87-88 F. One key thing is that I don't think those are shallow waters and the 80+ degree water goes down to something like 350 feet...squinting at this:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 193d26.png

it looks like that area before the Yucatan has more heat potential than the northern Gulf did for Dennis...

[wlfpack81]

Don't forget a landfall in n-ern Mexico is still very bad for se-ern Texas b/c they'd be on the n-ern side of the storm and would get most of the surge as well as tornado threat. The closer the eventual landfall to Brownsville the worse it may get for Corpus Christi and other se-ern Texas towns along the coast.