200 MPH Hurricane

[patsmsg]

Okay, now for some conjecture....

I believe while exceedingly unlikely, it is theoretically possible that we could one day see a hurricane with sustained winds of 200 MPH.

Here is my reasoning:
1) We have only observed and recorded a tiny fraction of the hurricanes that have occurred on this planet thus far. So, to say it could not happen based on historical data would be wishful at best. The sampling is too small.
2) Look at Camille, Gilbert, etc...Do you really think it is out of the realm of possiblity that a hurricane could be 10-15 MPH stronger than Camille, and the others. That's not a lot higher.
3) These storms formed in very favorable conditions, but do you really believe they formed in absolutely THE most favorable conditions that will EVER occur?
4) We know this planet changes. Look at this crazy hurricane season we are having now. It has "never" happened before, but it IS occurring this year.
5) We've are observing HUGE, powerful hurricanes on other planets in this solar system.

I have other reasons, but I'd rather hear yours...for OR against the possibility.

What do YOU think? (not about me being a quack , but about the possibility that we could have a 200 mph HURRICANE ONE DAY)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe the labar day hurricane of 1935 might of been one...I also believe that with are short time frame of Climo we don't have a very good understanding of what can happen. I believe if things are perfect 220 could happen.

[Hyperstorm]

Good hypothesis. It has happened before.

The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane is believed to have been the strongest Atlantic hurricane (wind-wise) on record with sustained winds of 195-205 mph. Sounds incredible, right? Well, this particular hurricane was EXTREMELY small (from the damage coverage area) and with a 892 mb pressure it is quite likely that record intensity was achieved over a VERY small area. There were reports of people being sandblasted to skeletons and only their shoes and belts were on. Pretty scary picture.

The system is currently being re-analyzed and we should know soon if the winds are adjusted upwards...

[GalvestonDuck]

As long as it doesn't make landfall....

[joseph01]

I think it's well within the realm of possibility, you quack.
Your reasoning makes sense.

Just kidding about you being a quack.

[jax]

with Camille... the wind gage at the Gulfport CB base broke
at 190mph... Many experts have estimated 200mph sustained
with gusts to 220mph... Pine needles driven into tree trunks...

[HurryKane]

Okay, now for some conjecture....

I believe while exceedingly unlikely, it is theoretically possible that we could one day see a hurricane with sustained winds of 200 MPH.

Here is my reasoning:
1) We have only observed and recorded a tiny fraction of the hurricanes that have occurred on this planet thus far. So, to say it could not happen based on historical data would be wishful at best. The sampling is too small.
2) Look at Camille, Gilbert, etc...Do you really think it is out of the realm of possiblity that a hurricane could be 10-15 MPH stronger than Camille, and the others. That's not a lot higher.
3) These storms formed in very favorable conditions, but do you really believe they formed in absolutely THE most favorable conditions that will EVER occur?
4) We know this planet changes. Look at this crazy hurricane season we are having now. It has "never" happened before, but it IS occurring this year.
5) We've are observing HUGE, powerful hurricanes on other planets in this solar system.

I have other reasons, but I'd rather hear yours...for OR against the possibility.

What do YOU think? (not about me being a quack , but about the possibility that we could have a 200 mph HURRICANE ONE DAY)

I think you stole my $7, you quack.

And, I think that yes, one day we will. But the conditions to make it happen will be on the order of nine planets, a sun, and a couple of comets aligning, along with the asteroid belt spelling out "DOOM" in space dust.

[WeatherEmperor]

As long as it doesn't make landfall....

You took the words right out of my mouth. Goodness a storm like that would bring terrible chaos.

<RICKY>

[vbhoutex]

I am quite confident it has already happened. Just like there will always be arguments about what Ivan's landfall strength or Charley's landfall strength, blah, blah was we will continue to see the same for any landfalling hurricane. Why? Because we do not have "reliable"(able to withstand 200 mph winds)recording instruments based every mile or so along the coast. Because we do not have enough hurricane hunter planes to place them everywhere in a hurricane so the sampling, while good is not great. I think the recording at Kessler is probably the closest we have come to verification of this. JMHO.

[joseph01]

I am quite confident it has already happened. Just like there will always be arguments about what Ivan's landfall strength or Charley's landfall strength, blah, blah was we will continue to see the same for any landfalling hurricane. Why? Because we do not have "reliable"(able to withstand 200 mph winds)recording instruments based every mile or so along the coast. Because we do not have enough hurricane hunter planes to place them everywhere in a hurricane so the sampling, while good is not great. I think the recording at Kessler is probably the closest we have come to verification of this. JMHO.

What is "the recording at Kessler"?

[vbhoutex]

I am quite confident it has already happened. Just like there will always be arguments about what Ivan's landfall strength or Charley's landfall strength, blah, blah was we will continue to see the same for any landfalling hurricane. Why? Because we do not have "reliable"(able to withstand 200 mph winds)recording instruments based every mile or so along the coast. Because we do not have enough hurricane hunter planes to place them everywhere in a hurricane so the sampling, while good is not great. I think the recording at Kessler is probably the closest we have come to verification of this. JMHO.

What is "the recording at Kessler"?

It was reported that their instruments recorded sustained at 190 mph with a gust to 220 mph before they were blown away.

[patsmsg]

Hmmm, maybe the topic should be "250 MPH Hurricane"? There's too much agreement on this.

[mvtrucking]

" People sandblasted to skeletons"? Wow, that is very scary.

[GalvestonDuck]

" People sandblasted to skeletons"? Wow, that is very scary.

Yup.

http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=1935+h ... =&ei=UTF-8 (Several hits refer to it)

http://www.motherearthnews.com/top_arti ... rvest_Moon

Some of the estimated 400 victims of the storm were sandblasted to death, their bodies found scoured of both clothes and skin.

[patsmsg]

" People sandblasted to skeletons"? Wow, that is very scary.

That sounds like something in a bad science fiction movie! ('The Day After Tomorrow')

[drezee]

" People sandblasted to skeletons"? Wow, that is very scary.

That sounds like something in a bad science fiction movie! ('The Day After Tomorrow')

Happens in tornadoes all the time...called "degloving"

[joseph01]

Happens in tornadoes all the time...called "degloving"

That's a nice antiseptic name for it.

[Mississippi Storm Magnet]

WARNING: A LOT OF TECHNICAL CRUD BELOW

A detailed thermodynamic analysis has been done by quite a few people. Holland (1997), Emmanuel (1995), and others.

A theory of Maxium Potential Intensity (MPI) based primarily on Sea Surface Temperatures and Thermodynamic Law was developed. A quite detailed analysis is here:

http://www3.sympatico.ca/louis.michaud/ ... RTICLE.pdf

A little more understandible explanation of MPI is here:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/KFIn ... ised_1.doc

The equation for MPI is:

MPI = A + B*e^C*(T-T0)

where MPI = knots
A = 38.21
B = 170.72
e = 2.71828
C = 0.1909
T = Sea Surface Temp in C
T0 = 30

So 30 degree SST = MPI of 244.8 knots = 282 mph

A LOT of other factors come into play. That is why MPI is usually a LOT higher than what is actually observed.


Thanks for reading if you got this far!

[patsmsg]

Wow, great information!

<snip>
A LOT of other factors come into play. That is why MPI is usually a LOT higher than what is actually observed.

It's a good thing too!

[coriolis]

200 mph = 89 M/S = F3 tornado
282 mph = 126 M/S = F5 tornado