Joe B and Emily

[KatDaddy]

He is concerned for TX especially from Galveston to Brownsville. He thinks a very similiar path to Gilbert and Allen.....actually a compromise between the two which would endanger the Brownsville area.

Could this be deja vu back to 1988. Remember the hype with Accu-Weather would stated Gilbert would turn N into the Upper TX Coast andit never did scaring many people in our area. This time Joe B is more focused on a steady WNW route. In addition he believes it will major hurricane in the GOM which is no surprise.

We will just watch and wait. She is very far out

[JenBayles]

GREAT! If JB sez Texas, I know we'll be fine.

[Portastorm]

He is concerned for TX especially from Galveston to Brownsville. He thinks a very similiar path to Gilbert and Allen.....actually a compromise between the two which would endanger the Brownsville area.

Could this be deja vu back to 1988. Remember the hype with Accu-Weather would stated Gilbert would turn N into the Upper TX Coast andit never did scaring many people in our area. This time Joe B is more focused on a steady WNW route. In addition he believes it will major hurricane in the GOM which is no surprise.

We will just watch and wait. She is very far out

With all due respect, I distinctly remember NHC also forecasting a turn to the northwest for Gilbert ... a turn that never happened. I don't remember which entity forecasted a more drastic turn however.

Heck, with Gilbert, mets here in Austin were forecasting heavy rain and winds gusting to 70-80 mph ... everyone was freaking out. And all we ever saw were a few spits of rain!

[Cape Verde]

Well, Galveston to Brownsville pretty much takes in 90% of Texas, so he's not really narrowing it down.

[x-y-no]

Well, a straight-shot track somewhere in the Gilbert/Allen range looks pretty likely to me too.

Jan

[Rainband]

Most likely Mexico.

[Comanche]

Thats it, I must defend JB when it is merited (now). In the vast majority of cases, he is able to identify development and long range pattern recognition to identify an area for landfall on a long range timeframe. If you don't believe me go back and look at all the NHC posts of where most of last years storms were forecast to landfall from 72-120 out, they always had it turning north way to early. He called Ivan a central to east gulf strike days out while NHC had it turning north. He also said he thought that Ivan remnants would exit the New Jersey area, travel south along the coast and the move west across florida and regenerate into a storm again and make landfall. I didn't see the NHC's forecast on that one. I have seen the same thing this year as well. Emily was forecast to hit Hispaniola and possibly traverse Cuba by early NHC forecast while he said it would be south of the islands and more of a Yucatan Channel area. If he is off on landfall by a half a degree of so from over a week out, i read all the bashing here but nobody says anything about the NHC as they keep updating and changing until they get it right.

[jrod]

Anyone take a look the the water temps off of Texas. They're scorching hot, with a huge area of upper 80's+. I dont want wanna see what would happen if the storm is a major hurricane before getting over those waters.

I'd be scared if I were in Texas.

[jasons2k]

Anyone take a look the the water temps off of Texas. They're scorching hot, with a huge area of upper 80's+. I dont want wanna see what would happen if the storm is a major hurricane before getting over those waters.

I'd be scared if I were in Texas.

I'm not scared just yet, but definately hoping this ridge holds and keeps her south.

If not, looking at the water temps, definately will be.

Also, just keep in mind, water temps are just one piece of the jigsaw.

[MWatkins]

The NHC…back in 1988…did not post warnings for south Texas during Gilbert. Accuweather, however, made a huge deal about Gilbert getting up there and caused all sorts of problems.

As for JB’s long-term forecasting powers…well before I write this didn’t I hear talk of Emily getting up the east coast over last weekend (1933 all over again or something)? If that’s true…and I think it is…then he’s basically covered the entire coast of the US on this storm. Hard to miss when you do that.

Oh yes…and North Carolina is still waiting for Frances.

MW

[Nimbus]

Did J.B. mention the ridge reasserting itself late in the forecast period?
That would balance the recurve tendancy and give a straighter track NW.
There is no way you could model this accurately with a computer yet but J.B. does seem to have pretty good pattern recognition skills.

[Derecho]

There is no way you could model this accurately with a computer yet but J.B. does seem to have pretty good pattern recognition skills.

I've never seen the slightest scrap of evidence he has any "pattern recognition" skills whatsoever. The only reason people think he does is that he claims he does.

[Comanche]

The NHC…back in 1988…did not post warnings for south Texas during Gilbert. Accuweather, however, made a huge deal about Gilbert getting up there and caused all sorts of problems.

As for JB’s long-term forecasting powers…well before I write this didn’t I hear talk of Emily getting up the east coast over last weekend (1933 all over again or something)? If that’s true…and I think it is…then he’s basically covered the entire coast of the US on this storm. Hard to miss when you do that.

Oh yes…and North Carolina is still waiting for Frances.

MW

his east coast prediction wasn't for emily, it was for the area behind her that is currently at 40w.

[jasons2k]

There is no way you could model this accurately with a computer yet but J.B. does seem to have pretty good pattern recognition skills.

I've never seen the slightest scrap of evidence he has any "pattern recognition" skills whatsoever. The only reason people think he does is that he claims he does.

This is your standard answer. I'm just curious, do you work for a competitor of his???

[HouTXmetro]

Did J.B. mention the ridge reasserting itself late in the forecast period?
That would balance the recurve tendancy and give a straighter track NW.
There is no way you could model this accurately with a computer yet but J.B. does seem to have pretty good pattern recognition skills.

Maybe a more W-WNW track.

[Portastorm]

The NHC…back in 1988…did not post warnings for south Texas during Gilbert. Accuweather, however, made a huge deal about Gilbert getting up there and caused all sorts of problems.

As for JB’s long-term forecasting powers…well before I write this didn’t I hear talk of Emily getting up the east coast over last weekend (1933 all over again or something)? If that’s true…and I think it is…then he’s basically covered the entire coast of the US on this storm. Hard to miss when you do that.

Oh yes…and North Carolina is still waiting for Frances.

MW

I don't doubt your knowledge good sir... however, I covered Gilbert for the Austin newspaper and wrote articles on it for 5 consecutive days.

I very clearly remember NHC forecasting Gilbert to "eventually turn to the northwest." I seem to recall that forecast being issued while Gilbert was wreaking havoc on the Yucatan. It was a 3-day out kind of thing. Once the storm crossed the peninsula and it was clear it was not moving NW, they kept with the steady state track.

However, the whole Galveston thing was compounded when city officials decided to evacuate the island and did so, I think, based more on Accuweather's forecast than NHC's.

[Steve]

>>As for JB’s long-term forecasting powers…well before I write this didn’t I hear talk of Emily getting up the east coast over last weekend (1933 all over again or something)? If that’s true…and I think it is…then he’s basically covered the entire coast of the US on this storm. Hard to miss when you do that.

No. He talked about the possibility of a shortcut storm affecting the Carolinas. But that could even be a 3rd entity and not the F storm to be (assuming it materializes). Should Emily stay far south, then the F storm would have a shot at turning west later in the forecast period and hitting FL rather than the Carolinas. I haven't watched his video today so I don't know what his current thinking is.

>>I've never seen the slightest scrap of evidence he has any "pattern recognition" skills whatsoever. The only reason people think he does is that he claims he does.

That's not a very fair assessment. I realize that you think that since he talks about everything that it's just as big wash, but there have been plenty of times he's talked about patterns and where one would look for a storm where there wasn't even a wave progged to the area and something spun up or whatever. Gaston was a pretty good example last year of a pattern storm.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

There is no way you could model this accurately with a computer yet but J.B. does seem to have pretty good pattern recognition skills.

I've never seen the slightest scrap of evidence he has any "pattern recognition" skills whatsoever. The only reason people think he does is that he claims he does.

This is your standard answer. I'm just curious, do you work for a competitor of his???

I don't think he(Derecho) likes JB. I personally find him both interesting and entertaining but I still won't board up my windows based on a prediction he makes. I make that decision based on what the NHC says and no one else.

[djtil]

good for JB.

[cajungal]

He is still talking about TX/to New Orleans being at greatest risk. I feel like she will not get as far east as even the Louisiana coastline. He predicted Dennis would go up the mouth of the river, and it didn't. And I was 12 years old when Gilbert hit, and I remember my teachers being all worried that he was going to come here. That was the talk of the school that week. And back then, I did not pay attention to the weather much and everyone got nervous.