Emily is seeing

[cycloneye]

A small black spot at first visibles.

[Dean4Storms]

She is becoming a very healthy looking hurricane. If the SST's are as warm as they claim out in front of her we could easily see a Cat. 4-5 IMO.

[caribepr]

Is this the YIKES it looks like for the ABC's or will it gain lat sooner, I HOPE?

[cycloneye]

[Thunder44]

I don't really see an eye yet, but I can see where an eye will be soon.

[Patrick99]

Looks like the "Hurricane Graveyard" is gonna be 0 for 2.

[alicia-w]

can someone please explain to me why Emily is forecasted to travel more west than northwest? what is keeping her on that path? i dont know enough about the science to understand it.

thanks ahead of time.

[cycloneye]

Recon confirming a small eye of 12m diameter.

[WeatherEmperor]

Recon confirming a small eye of 12m diameter.

cool. When do you see Emily becoming a major hurricane Cycloneye?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Recon confirming a small eye of 12m diameter.

cool. When do you see Emily becoming a major hurricane Cycloneye?

<RICKY>

When? If this trend continues it well be a major tonight.

[otowntiger]

She is becoming a very healthy looking hurricane. If the SST's are as warm as they claim out in front of her we could easily see a Cat. 4-5 IMO.

Not every healthy organizing hurricane is going to become a cat 4/5. In fact very few do, even with all the right factors. Cat 5's are very rare. Just because it appears that all systems are go for Emily it does not mean that she'll just keep getting stronger and cat 5 is inevitable.

[HurricaneGirl]

Emily is large!

[Hyperstorm]

Actually, Emily is kind of small. Hurricane force winds only extend up to 30 miles from the center. It's similar in size to Charley last year. These systems are subject to rapid changes in strength, just like it is happening now.

BTW, I don't see the eye quite yet on visible, but as recon pointed out, it does have one...EXTREMELY cold cloud tops are covering it. Once the downward force near the center becomes strong enough, I expect the dreaded pin-hole eye to pop out. Watch out.

85* and rising...

[Brent]

can someone please explain to me why Emily is forecasted to travel more west than northwest? what is keeping her on that path? i dont know enough about the science to understand it.

thanks ahead of time.

There is a strong ridge to the north... the flow around it is keeping Emily to the south and preventing it from moving more than WNW. When Dennis was in the Caribbean, there was a ridge over Texas and a ridge off the Southeastern Coast, and he went in between and came up into the MS/AL/FL coast.

[arcticfire]

She is becoming a very healthy looking hurricane. If the SST's are as warm as they claim out in front of her we could easily see a Cat. 4-5 IMO.

Not every healthy organizing hurricane is going to become a cat 4/5. In fact very few do, even with all the right factors. Cat 5's are very rare. Just because it appears that all systems are go for Emily it does not mean that she'll just keep getting stronger and cat 5 is inevitable.

At the same time just because history ..all 50-150 yearsof it we have says cat 4/5's are rare does not mean it won't become a cat 4 or 5. Nor does it mean that all the hurricans this season won't be cat 4/5's. History is a great learning tool , it however is not the rock solid statistical probability of pulling a royal flush out of a deck of cards.

Each storm should be held to it's own set of variables when looking to see if it's going to get strong or not , not some precived notion that it can't because there have been to many already or that getting strong is supposed to be rare.

[wx247]

Dean4Storms is someone that I trust... and when he says something like that I sit up and take notice.

[alicia-w]

Ditto

[Anonymous]

As I said two days ago, Category 4 in the Caribbean...

As for intensification, all factors needed....warm oceanic heat content, low wind shear, favorable outflow
pattern, and a moist environment should allow Emily to become a hurricane in 12-24 hours, and then a
major hurricane in 48-60 hours. I am now forecasting Tropical Storm Emily to be a Category Four hurricane
in 96 hours.

The reasoning behind this rather liberal forecast is due to the fact of Dennis bombing from a
Category One to a Category 4 in less than 24 hours last week, due to a very favorable upper level pattern.
With Emily having such a favorable upper level pattern, I would not be surprise to see such rapid increases
in intensity along the track through the Caribbean Sea. Should a landfall in Jamaica should not effect this
intensity forecast much, since Emily would move across the island in due time.

[Brent]

She is becoming a very healthy looking hurricane. If the SST's are as warm as they claim out in front of her we could easily see a Cat. 4-5 IMO.

They are plenty warm. If she follows the NHC track... the waters are undisturbed. She'll easily be a Cat 4 IMO. I'll never say Cat 5 since they are so rare and since it is July, but anything's possible after Dennis almost made it.

[alicia-w]

As I said two days ago, Category 4 in the Caribbean...

As for intensification, all factors needed....warm oceanic heat content, low wind shear, favorable outflow
pattern, and a moist environment should allow Emily to become a hurricane in 12-24 hours, and then a
major hurricane in 48-60 hours. I am now forecasting Tropical Storm Emily to be a Category Four hurricane
in 96 hours.

The reasoning behind this rather liberal forecast is due to the fact of Dennis bombing from a
Category One to a Category 4 in less than 24 hours last week, due to a very favorable upper level pattern.
With Emily having such a favorable upper level pattern, I would not be surprise to see such rapid increases
in intensity along the track through the Caribbean Sea. Should a landfall in Jamaica should not effect this
intensity forecast much, since Emily would move across the island in due time.

Emily is already a hurricane.