Is Emily a sure thing for the Mexican Coastline?

#21 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:04 am

hicksta wrote:you lost me there.

How did I lose you? No offense here...just trying to figure out how I need to explain it...I noticed you referred to the models shifting north...so I assumed you would know about the models since you were referring to them. There are a lot of different models...other than the ones that are posted on here in graphic format (with the different color lines representing the different models). Those graphs that are posted here showing the model tracks usually only show a few of the models...and most of those are not the most reliable for tracking a storm. Matter of fact...one is just climo and another is garbage (A98E).

So when you say they are moving north...which ones are you referring to? Which models are moving north?

Derek Ortt · #22 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:13 am

I'm trying to figure out why our MM5 is far north of the others.

Then again, it did get Cindy at NO with the center reformation when the others were near Texas

#23 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:19 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I'm trying to figure out why our MM5 is far north of the others.

Then again, it did get Cindy at NO with the center reformation when the others were near Texas

I noticed that. Is it run seperately from the Air Force model or do you run the AF model in the background like the GFDL does with the GFS?

Derek Ortt · #24 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:24 am

its our own MM5, specifically for tropical cyclones (havnt used it in real time before this year)

what we are doing is running it off of GFS and GFDL initial and lateral boundary conditions and using a 15km large domain encompassing the storm and the region we expect it to move to (for example, the runs I am working on now have the storm in the SE part of the domain, since this is not going to be moving at all to the east or the south)

#25 Postby **Roxy** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:43 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I'm trying to figure out why our MM5 is far north of the others.

Then again, it did get Cindy at NO with the center reformation when the others were near Texas

Very interesting Derek. Keep us posted on that model of yours, please.

#26 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:39 am

Last 4 posts here have been the most interesting stuff all day.

Please keep us posted, that definately gets my attn.

canegrl04 · #27 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:45 am

Mexico to Brownsville is the danger zone

#28 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:51 am

canegrl04 wrote:Mexico to Brownsville is the danger zone

It. is. too. early.

And for the subject: "Is Emily a sure thing for the Mexican Coastline?"

The answer is NO. Nothing is a sure thing.

Is Emily a sure thing for the Mexican Coastline?

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