Emily Forecast (NOT OFFICAL!!!!)

[jhamps10]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Well Boys and Girls, here we go again, another hurricane in the tropics. Emly is currently centered near Grenada and is moving west. Looking at sat. images over the past hour, it looks like an eye might be forming in the storm. But at the same time, emily has gotten herself sucking in some dry air off of the Southwest side. Because of this I set intital speed at 95MPH. I do think that it may make a similar track that dennis took, until it gets west of Jamaica, where it will go more WNW and if it touches cuba it will be from feeder bands. I think in less than 48 hours we will have a very major hurricane on our hands. Here now is the forecast (keep in mind I will only give out wind forcasts.

INT: 95 MPH
12 HRS: 105 MPH
24 HRS: 115 MPH (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 135 MPH
72 HRS: 135 MPH
120 HRS: 125 MPH

Any comments, good or bad are greatly welcome

[hicksta]

I think it all depends on where the ridge goes.

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

It will be a brush

[Air Force Met]

I voted no...think it will follow a Gilbert like track and go 50-100 miles south of Brownsville.

[Derek Ortt]

50 miles? could produce a severe tidal surge problem depending upon its size then for Brownsville

[Air Force Met]

50 miles? could produce a severe tidal surge problem depending upon its size then for Brownsville

Not really. As big as Gilbert was...the tide was only 6 feet in South Texas...which sounds like a lot...but it was 4' in Galveston because of his size. Emily is a lot smaller than Gilbert so maybe a couple/three feet if it goes 50 miles south of them.

[Derek Ortt]

even if the eye stretches out to like 25-30 miles? I was thinking an Ivan type eye (which we have no idea if that were to occur, or this could also be as small as Dennis and produce 6 feet where it makes landfall)

[Air Force Met]

even if the eye stretches out to like 25-30 miles? I was thinking an Ivan type eye (which we have no idea if that were to occur, or this could also be as small as Dennis and produce 6 feet where it makes landfall)

I am currently TDY...so I don't have access to my SLOSH models...so I am not real sure what it would do. I'll have to check when I get home.