H.Emily Advisorys

[texasheat]

maybe it will be emily this time

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...EMILY ARRIVES IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...CENTER PASSING JUST NORTH
OF TOBAGO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...
TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST.
LUCIA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES
WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA WESTWARD
TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 60.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES... 145 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD AND ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CLEARING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HOWEVER...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...11.5 N... 60.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Swimdude]

No changes... Or is the pressure down 3 mb?

[cycloneye]

No changes... Or is the pressure down 3 mb?

Pressure down 3.

[Brent]

*getting a little more interested*

It's finally starting to gain some latitude, albeit slowly.

[cycloneye]

*getting a little more interested*

It's finally starting to gain some latitude, albeit slowly.

**Not more bored**?

[gkrangers]

*getting a little more interested*

It's finally starting to gain some latitude, albeit slowly.

If this convection persists...we may see the pressure slowly start to drop, instead of being as steady as it was over the last couple days.

[Brent]

*getting a little more interested*

It's finally starting to gain some latitude, albeit slowly.

**Not more bored**?

No... but it's still not like the big ones that threaten the U.S. Mexico storms just don't interest me as much. Neither do fish(less than this though).

[pcolaguy]

I think we will see a 70mph Emily at the next update. Flight level winds of 90 mph.

[FritzPaul]

Hurricane warnings back up!!!!!!





http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0154.shtml

[johngaltfla]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 140154
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005
...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.

AT 955 PM...0155Z...THE RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

FORECASTER KNABB

[mf_dolphin]

Just when people were ready to write her off her she comes! Gotta love the tropics...

[cycloneye]

Just when people were ready to write her off her she comes! Gotta love the tropics...

Some said it would crash into SouthAmerica and die.

[johngaltfla]

OK, I escaped Hugo, got lucky with Charley, and thus far in my life just had the headaches of Cat 1's and TS. I'd say this season is beginning to stack the odds against me.

Does anyone, ever, in their lives, ever remember seeing any season like this one?????????

It's beyond words at this point. Our local weatherman here in Tampa on WTVT was almost speechless when he read the advisory.

[abajan]

Because of the NHC's premature downgrade of warnings, many people in Grenada and the Grenadines are going to be caught napping...literally!

This is not good, people.

[canegrl04]

And it looks like a Texas impact is more a possibility

[caribepr]

Because of the NHC's premature downgrade of warnings, many people in Grenada and the Grenadines are going to be caught napping...literally! :eek:

This is not good, people.

According to some reports on stormcarib.com Grenada seems to have its act together more than ever before...hopefully the few hours it was downgraded won't have had people tearing things down?

[Brent]

Because of the NHC's premature downgrade of warnings, many people in Grenada and the Grenadines are going to be caught napping...literally!

This is not good, people.

I can understand both sides... it REALLY was looking very sick earlier and I thought "no way it becomes a hurricane anytime soon" and then of course things changed. I actually probably have changed the warnings sooner than they did.

[gkrangers]

The NHC doesn't control the warnings for those islands. The governments are responsible.

[hurrican19]

Because of the NHC's premature downgrade of warnings, many people in Grenada and the Grenadines are going to be caught napping...literally!

This is not good, people.

Please remember that the NHC does NOT issue the warnings/watches to those countries down there, the government of their respective countries issue the warnings/watches.