Emily Recon

[gkrangers]

80% reduction equates to 63 knots.

Considering tonights strengthening trend, and the fact that its extremely unlikely they sampled they highest winds possible (i mean what are the odds?), I think NHC will go to 65kts at 11, making Emily a hurricane based on the current info.

[dhweather]

Uh,oh...may have dropped those Hurricane warnings too quickly....

Yep.

[wxwatcher91]

so what does everyone think? major hurricane in Carib???

[pcolaguy]

80% reduction equates to 63 knots.

Considering tonights strengthening trend, and the fact that its extremely unlikely they sampled they highest winds possible (i mean what are the odds?), I think NHC will go to 65kts at 11, making Emily a hurricane based on the current info.

After the discontinued hurricane warnings? Fat chance. It's the same thing that we went through with Cindy, they can't make themselves look bad. They will leave it at 70 mph till it's past, watch and see. Then they will turn around issue hurricane warnings for Jamacia.

[Hurricane Cheese]

so what does everyone think? major hurricane in Carib???

I see it...and I believe the NHC agrees...

[gkrangers]

Good point...didn't think about that.

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 12
Time: 0149Z
Position 11.0 North // 61.1 West
Flight level winds 28 knots//310
850 millibar height 1488 meters

[jkt21787]

Doesn't each respective government issue the watches and warnings rather than NHC, although they can recommend?

Maybe thats only certain countires though.

[gkrangers]

I think the NHC recommends and they just go with what the NHC says. Could be wrong tho.

[johngaltfla]

so what does everyone think? major hurricane in Carib???

Yes. The question is will it trend NW, WNW or due W. I make no wagers because whoda thunk we'd be discussing a Cat 1, 2, or 3 (again) in July???

[angelwing]

It's a cane, no question about it

[johngaltfla]

Special advisory issued 15 mins ago, now up on the advisory thread. Holy smokes. Whoda thunk it!

[clfenwi]

dropsonde obs

Observation Number:10
Time: 0147Z
Position: 11.8 N 60.4 W
Sea Level Pressure: 996 millibars
925 millibar height: 649 meters
925 millibar winds: 89 knots // 095
850 millibar height: 1388 meters
850 millibar winds: 68 knots // 085


Observation Number:11
Time:0148Z
Position: 11.7 N 60.3 W
Sea Level Pressure: 996 mb
Surface wind speed and direction: 28 knots // 145
925 millibar height: 645 meters
925 millibar winds: 27 knots // 160
850 millibar height: 1377 meters
850 millibar winds: 17 knots // 190





[wxwatcher91]

is recon gonna do another run before the 11pm advisory???

[Scorpion]

It'll probably weaken to a TS by morning. Too close to South America IMO.

[jkt21787]

It'll probably weaken to a TS by morning. Too close to South America IMO.

Come on, recon has found the center relocating North of the old position.

[Thunder44]

It'll probably weaken to a TS by morning. Too close to South America IMO.

Come on, recon has found the center relocating North of the old position.

This is coming from someone who said she was dead earlier this evening, so I wouldn't pay much attention to this person anymore.

[clfenwi]

minobs have gone quiet all the sudden...

...most recent one was at 0158Z and had them at 1049N 05950W making their way northeast.... possibly setting themselves up for another NE-SW pass through the center...

and right after I post that ... two sets came up ... does look like a NE-SW pass through the eye or not.. SE-NW maybe? I should maintain a plot...sigh

[Brent]

It'll probably weaken to a TS by morning. Too close to South America IMO.

Hard to take you seriously when you said 2 hours ago it was dead.

Sorry dude.

Ivan went from a Cat 3 to almost a Cat 5 in less than 24 hours in the same spot(remember, right over Grenada where this is going) and it didn't "weaken" or even "quit" strengthening.

[johngaltfla]

Well stated Brent. I watched Charley go from Cat 2 to Cat 4 in about 2 hours.

And when I saw that, I was a freaking because those of us in the Sarasota-Manatee county areas thought we were in the cone of death.