Emily now moving more toward the northwest

[stormernie]

latest votex message confirms two items:

1 - Emily is now a cane
2 - Emily may be moving between wnw-nw at a slower forward speed.

We'll await NHC advisory

Votex Message
11.8
60.3

80 MPH

[mvtrucking]

I posted a reply at the other thread(Looking impressive) saying the same thing. Just an opinion though.

[gkrangers]

Not sure where you get 80MPH from..

Maximum flight leve (5000 feet) winds were 79 knots. Reducing them by 80% yields 63 knots, which is 72MPH.

Emily is probably a hurricane, since its unlikely they find the exact strongest winds, but going by the latest vortex its still a very strong TS.

[skysummit]

Yup...it's a cane!

[Air Force Met]

I think the center is getting it's act together a little further north. THe fix is actually a little NNE of the previous position. Now...the system is certainly headed W or WNW...but every little bit if forms north means a big deal down the road. The ridge will keep it west of NOLA (IMO)...but if it jogs north...then the eventual landfall may be further north into Texas rather than Old Mexico.

Just like with Dennis...every little jog effects eventual landfall.

[gkrangers]

WTNT65 KNHC 140154
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005
...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.

AT 955 PM...0155Z...THE RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Kennethb]

Looking a lot better on satellite this evening to justify the upgrade.

[Kludge]

I swear that the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao) have developed a storm deflector. It seems nothing can move W on 11 latitude for long.

We need to figure out how they do it!

[Tropicswatcher]

lets hope it goes north of grenada......poor island!

[Brent]

I think the chances of a Texas hit(probably South Texas) are increasing.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, I wonder if all of us Texans crowing for a storm will be singing the same tune come Monday when we could have a Cat-3 or Cat-4 on our doorsteps!

[Brent]

I think this looks more like just a Texas possibility storm, I doubt anything other than Texas, at least now.

Kevin Cho

Well that's obvious because of the ridge, it's either Texas or Mexico IMO... probably both. Allen's track looks pretty good right now.

[canegrl04]

The western GOM typically has warmer waters.Not good news for Texas.At least not for peoples' property,but in the long run,it does good(drought)

[texasheat]

yall think galveston might get her?

[Portastorm]

yall think galveston might get her?

Shoot ... at this point, anything west of NOLA is "game on."

[Javlin]

Alittle early to to be picking a city don't you think.

[texasheat]

whats NOLA...

[Stratosphere747]

All this "Texas" talk should really abate untill we are actually in the cone.

I can also attest to the fact that none us "oldtimers" want anything to do with a cat2 or higher cane.

Wishcast on something else..

[Portastorm]

No one's picking a city yet dude .... NOLA = New Orleans.

Hard to think that anything east of New Orleans would encounter Emily ... but then again stranger things have happened.

I think its safe to say anybody from New Orleans west in the Gulf should be watching this hurricane VERY CLOSELY.

[BLHutch]

whats NOLA...

New Orleans, Louisiana