Tidbit from Corpus AFD:
OF COURSE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LATE MON-WED TIMEFRAME WL BE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF EMILY. THE TREND OVER THE PAST SVRL DAYS HAS BEEN TO KEEP EMILY ON A MORE WLY TRACK AND THUS AT A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDE. THE LATEST GFS AND NOGAPS SOLNS ALONG WITH THE NHC TRACK FCST TAKE EMILY INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA JUST TO THE NORTH OF BELIZE EARLY MONDAY. EXTRAPOLATION FROM THIS LOCATION WOULD LKLY MEAN LANDFALL NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY WED. OF COURSE IF THE RDG IS NOT AS STRONG ACROSS THE NW GULF RGN WHICH IS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE...THEN A MORE NWLY TRACK MAY UNFOLD. FOR NOW...WL ONLY SHOW MODEST SWELL INCREASE BY TUE NIGHT AND WED GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK
WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
So they are thinking also about a Mexico hit
Emily finally pulling up?
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wayoutfront
Cuba? naw can't be 
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deltadog03
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Normandy wrote:Emily doesnt have a CDO, the center isnt even in the center of the convection....its on the extreme NW edge..
I'm sorry, but at least if you look at the latest images, its hard to argue that Emily doesn't have a CDO now. Looks pretty good actually. With recon confirming a pressure drop, I think its obvious thats what taking place here. It fits the characteristics pretty well. Emily is finally getting her act together. With this burst in place a good 5 or 6 hours, Emily no longer appears to be struggling or in Life support.
And the 00z models, for those unaware, have shifted a bit north this evening. Will this become a trend? We'll see.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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amawea
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jlauderdal wrote: Jb said it's going to N.O.
That is an outright lie. That's the second time you've made a false statement in regards to J.B.'s post in the past week. Why do you do that. His post today said he felt a deep South Tx hit might be in the future, I'm sick and tired of false statements in regards to JB being posted here. I have no problem with someone stating his predictions whether thay are right or wrong, but don't outright lie. Because that's what you did.
Amawea
That is an outright lie. That's the second time you've made a false statement in regards to J.B.'s post in the past week. Why do you do that. His post today said he felt a deep South Tx hit might be in the future, I'm sick and tired of false statements in regards to JB being posted here. I have no problem with someone stating his predictions whether thay are right or wrong, but don't outright lie. Because that's what you did.
Amawea
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jkt21787 wrote:Normandy wrote:Emily doesnt have a CDO, the center isnt even in the center of the convection....its on the extreme NW edge..
I'm sorry, but at least if you look at the latest images, its hard to argue that Emily doesn't have a CDO now. Looks pretty good actually. With recon confirming a pressure drop, I think its obvious thats what taking place here. It fits the characteristics pretty well. Emily is finally getting her act together. With this burst in place a good 5 or 6 hours, Emily no longer appears to be struggling or in Life support.
And the 00z models, for those unaware, have shifted a bit north this evening. Will this become a trend? We'll see.
3 hours ago when i posted that message, Emily DID not have a CDO. it had a blow up of convection with the center on the extreme NW edge of it.
Now, yes I agree she does.
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