New 00z Emily Models!

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Wnghs2007
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New 00z Emily Models!

#1 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:54 pm

000
WHXX01 KWBC 140036
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050714 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050714 0000 050714 1200 050715 0000 050715 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 60.6W 12.3N 64.0W 13.4N 67.3W 14.8N 70.5W
BAMM 11.5N 60.6W 12.4N 64.4W 13.5N 68.2W 14.8N 71.8W
A98E 11.5N 60.6W 11.9N 63.7W 12.7N 66.6W 13.8N 69.4W
LBAR 11.5N 60.6W 12.3N 63.9W 13.4N 67.2W 14.7N 70.6W
SHIP 50KTS 55KTS 64KTS 71KTS
DSHP 50KTS 55KTS 64KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050716 0000 050717 0000 050718 0000 050719 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 73.7W 19.1N 80.0W 21.3N 85.0W 23.3N 89.2W
BAMM 16.1N 75.4W 18.6N 82.4W 20.4N 88.3W 21.4N 93.1W
A98E 15.0N 72.2W 17.4N 78.0W 19.5N 83.6W 21.7N 88.0W
LBAR 16.1N 74.1W 18.9N 80.8W 20.6N 86.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 79KTS 91KTS 95KTS 94KTS
DSHP 79KTS 91KTS 95KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 57.4W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 53.7W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 75NM
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rockyman
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#2 Postby rockyman » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:56 pm

Image[/url]

Now all of the tropical models are to the right of the NHC official track...models have been trending right all day....Could UKMet be on to something?
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#3 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:59 pm

Is that more North? I think it is!

This should get the TX folks hyped up. GFDL and BAMD are showing little or no land interaction.

NHC track is south of everybody now.
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#4 Postby Agua » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:00 pm

After getting NHC to buy into their southerly trend, they decide to shift right. :roll:
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#5 Postby jabber » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:02 pm

Here we go.... I wonder if this was after data feed from the recon flight. Would that not be a hoot if the models start trending back to the right and north. I wonder if the weakness in the ridge is stronger the the models think they saw?
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#6 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:03 pm

When the models are as tightly clustered as they are, it is very difficult to disagree with them. I dont think this latest shift should alarm anybody. We should just keep a vigilant eye out for it because it is still days and days away.

<RICKY>
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#7 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:03 pm

They are starting to talk down her max strengthening... they were going 100 knots at 96 h...
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#8 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:04 pm

now that makes things interesting, i was getting tired of the same ol same ol, now the window has opened some more, could it open even more? we shall see
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#9 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:27 pm

Very interesting that they have it getting closer to the YC...

Will wait for NHC's comments though.
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#10 Postby EDR1222 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:32 pm

Starting to get interesting. Wonder what they wil show on Thursday :roll:
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#11 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:36 pm

Very interesting. And disturbing. The latest recon along with these models makes me wonder what the next 48 hours will bring. After all, we are in Mr. Ivan's neighborhood soon....
:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#12 Postby fci » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:40 pm

The models indicate one heck of a turn to the North rather quickly.
As they have been doing the past several storms and usually overstated.
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#13 Postby Baggio » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:41 pm

rockyman wrote:Image
Now all of the tropical models are to the right of the NHC official track...models have been trending right all day....Could UKMet be on to something?


The picture isnt coming up for me. :cry:
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#14 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:42 pm

johngaltfla wrote:After all, we are in Mr. Ivan's neighborhood soon....
:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


Indeed we are. Gulf coast residents should certainly step up and take notice after those latest model runs. Now more than ever its important to keep a vigilant eye..
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rockyman
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#15 Postby rockyman » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:43 pm

Baggio wrote:
rockyman wrote:Image
Now all of the tropical models are to the right of the NHC official track...models have been trending right all day....Could UKMet be on to something?


The picture isnt coming up for me. :cry:


Don't cry...try this link:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

:lol: :lol:
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#16 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:44 pm

Image
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#17 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:44 pm

CRAP :eek: Looks like Texas and LA folks better keep an eye on Emily
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#18 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:51 pm

Watching Emily from League City, TX. she is very far away from the GOM but right on track to the GOM as she finally has begun her WNW movement. She also has exploded with convection which has formed an impressive CDO. On her way to hurricane at this rate. Expect 70MPH at 10PM
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#19 Postby wxwatcher91 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:54 pm

ok well they've dropped the max intensity however now there is a better chance that Emily will actually REACH that intensity.

with a track further north, Emily should begin to strengthen more. the Coriolus Effect should work in soon and organize Emily...

I think she still MIGHT have a chance at cat 3.
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#20 Postby Duffy » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:58 pm

the Coriolus Effect ?
what's that ?
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