Emily Recon

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HURAKAN
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#101 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:43 pm

Scorpion wrote:We have 55 kt storm.


I think we have a 50 mph storm, which is more like a 45 knots storm.
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#102 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:44 pm

Scorpion wrote:We have 55 kt storm.


No, the winds at flight level are only 57 kt. This is roughly a 40-45kt storm.
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#103 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:45 pm

URNT12 KNHC 131718
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/17:07:10Z
B. 11 deg 19 min N
058 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1456 m
D. 15 kt
E. 240 deg 041 nm
F. 272 deg 028 kt
G. 233 deg 075 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 16 C/ 1521 m
J. 20 C/ 1526 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF304 0105A EMILY OB 22
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NE QUAD 13:16:10 Z
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION
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#104 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:49 pm

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 24
Time: 1700Z
Latitude: 11.8°N
Longitude: 58.3°W
Location: 119 mi SE of Bridgetown, Barbados
Surface: 1005 mb; Temp: 78°F; Dewpt: 52°F; SE (140°) @ 46 mph
1000mb height: 157 ft; Temp: 77°F; Dewpt: 66°F; SE (130°) @ 58 mph
925mb height: 2398 ft; Temp: 71°F; Dewpt: 72°F; SE (140°) @ 70 mph
850mb height: 4800 ft; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 48°F; SE (130°) @ 62 mph
MXWNDBND SPL 1183N05834W 1721 MBL WND 13556 AEV 20507 DLM W
ND 14059 005890 WL150 13550 075

Image
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#105 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:50 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 52
Ob #01 Location: 211 mi E of Bridgetown, Barbados
Ob #01: Time: 17:37:30Z; 12.6°N 57.6°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 65 ft; Wind: SE (138°) @ 63 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #02: Time: 17:38:00Z; 12.6°N 57.5°W; PA: 4993 ft; D-Value: 65 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #03: Time: 17:38:30Z; 12.6°N 57.5°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #04: Time: 17:39:00Z; 12.6°N 57.5°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 70 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 62 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #05: Time: 17:39:30Z; 12.7°N 57.5°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 72 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 62 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #06: Time: 17:40:00Z; 12.7°N 57.5°W; PA: 4987 ft; D-Value: 69 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 60 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #07: Time: 17:40:30Z; 12.7°N 57.6°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: SE (131°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #08: Time: 17:41:00Z; 12.7°N 57.6°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 67 ft; Wind: SE (131°) @ 60 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #09: Time: 17:41:30Z; 12.7°N 57.6°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 58 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #10: Time: 17:42:00Z; 12.7°N 57.7°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 65 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 58 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #11: Time: 17:42:30Z; 12.7°N 57.7°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 65 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #12: Time: 17:43:00Z; 12.7°N 57.8°W; PA: 5010 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #13: Time: 17:43:30Z; 12.7°N 57.8°W; PA: 4977 ft; D-Value: 67 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 60 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #14: Time: 17:44:00Z; 12.7°N 57.8°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: SE (128°) @ 65 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #15: Time: 17:44:30Z; 12.7°N 57.9°W; PA: 4967 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 65 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #16: Time: 17:45:00Z; 12.7°N 57.9°W; PA: 4967 ft; D-Value: 62 ft; Wind: SE (130°) @ 63 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #17: Time: 17:45:30Z; 12.8°N 57.9°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 61 ft; Wind: SE (130°) @ 63 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #18: Time: 17:46:00Z; 12.8°N 58°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 61 ft; Wind: SE (130°) @ 66 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #19: Time: 17:46:30Z; 12.8°N 58°W; PA: 4984 ft; D-Value: 60 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 65 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #20: Time: 17:47:00Z; 12.8°N 58°W; PA: 4993 ft; D-Value: 60 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 42°F
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#106 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:59 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Scorpion wrote:We have 55 kt storm.


No, the winds at flight level are only 57 kt. This is roughly a 40-45kt storm.



Ob #09: Time: 17:31:30Z; 12.3°N 57.8°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #10: Time: 17:32:00Z; 12.3°N 57.8°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 58 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 71 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #11: Time: 17:32:30Z; 12.4°N 57.8°W; PA: 4993 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 71 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #12: Time: 17:33:00Z; 12.4°N 57.8°W; PA: 4993 ft; D-Value: 60 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #13: Time: 17:33:30Z; 12.4°N 57.7°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 60 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #14: Time: 17:34:00Z; 12.4°N 57.7°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #15: Time: 17:34:30Z; 12.4°N 57.7°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 61 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 65°F;

Where did this come from then, This would show a 60 knt flight level wind

And even if you reduce it 15 % the flight level wind 48.5 knts at 57 knts...So it is atleast a 50 knts storm

57 - 5.7 or 10% = 51.3, 57 - 8.5 or 15% = 48.5 knts

If it is a 60 knt flight level wind like those reports would indicate
then

60- 6.0 or 10% = 54 knts, 60 - 9.0 or 15% = 51 knts
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#107 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:00 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 26
Time: 1736Z
Latitude: 12.5°N
Longitude: 57.6°W
Location: 134 mi ESE of Bridgetown, Barbados
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 5000 feet
Flight level wind: SE (140°) @ 65 mph
Temperature: 64°F
Dewpoint: 48°F
Weather: Rain
850mb height: 5000 feet
Surface Wind: SE (120°) @ 35 mph
Remarks: None


Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 27
Time: 1800Z
Latitude: 12.7°N
Longitude: 57.6°W
Location: 130 mi ESE of Bridgetown, Barbados
Surface: 1011 mb; Temp: 82°F; Dewpt: 120°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
1000mb height: 308 ft; Temp: 80°F; Dewpt: 120°F; SE (140°) @ 40 mph
925mb height: 2552 ft; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 54°F; SE (130°) @ 45 mph
850mb height: 2552 ft; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 54°F; SE (130°) @ 45 mph
SPL 1269N05759W 1742 LST WND 030 MBL WND 14035 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 14037 007868 WL150 14534 104
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#108 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:02 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 53
Ob #01 Location: 109 mi E of Bridgetown, Barbados
Ob #01: Time: 17:47:30Z; 12.8°N 58.1°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 67 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #02: Time: 17:48:00Z; 12.8°N 58.1°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 58 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #03: Time: 17:48:30Z; 12.8°N 58.2°W; PA: 5020 ft; D-Value: 60 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #04: Time: 17:49:00Z; 12.8°N 58.2°W; PA: 5213 ft; D-Value: 67 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 71 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #05: Time: 17:49:30Z; 12.8°N 58.2°W; PA: 6453 ft; D-Value: 91 ft; Wind: ESE (111°) @ 67 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #06: Time: 17:50:00Z; 12.8°N 58.3°W; PA: 7733 ft; D-Value: 107 ft; Wind: ESE (114°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #07: Time: 17:50:30Z; 12.8°N 58.3°W; PA: 8953 ft; D-Value: 129 ft; Wind: ESE (110°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #08: Time: 17:51:00Z; 12.8°N 58.4°W; PA: 10177 ft; D-Value: 154 ft; Wind: E (100°) @ 66 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #09: Time: 17:51:30Z; 12.9°N 58.4°W; PA: 11299 ft; D-Value: 180 ft; Wind: E (97°) @ 63 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #10: Time: 17:52:00Z; 12.9°N 58.4°W; PA: 12352 ft; D-Value: 202 ft; Wind: E (91°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 42°F
Ob #11: Time: 17:52:30Z; 12.9°N 58.5°W; PA: 13360 ft; D-Value: 222 ft; Wind: E (89°) @ 54 mph; Temp: 39°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #12: Time: 17:53:00Z; 12.9°N 58.5°W; PA: 14334 ft; D-Value: 212 ft; Wind: E (91°) @ 52 mph; Temp: 36°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #13: Time: 17:53:30Z; 12.9°N 58.6°W; PA: 15266 ft; D-Value: 240 ft; Wind: E (88°) @ 48 mph; Temp: 33°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #14: Time: 17:54:00Z; 12.9°N 58.6°W; PA: 16135 ft; D-Value: 269 ft; Wind: E (86°) @ 45 mph; Temp: 32°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #15: Time: 17:54:30Z; 12.9°N 58.6°W; PA: 16896 ft; D-Value: 286 ft; Wind: E (82°) @ 44 mph; Temp: 35°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #16: Time: 17:55:00Z; 12.9°N 58.7°W; PA: 17671 ft; D-Value: 304 ft; Wind: ENE (75°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 38°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #17: Time: 17:55:30Z; 12.9°N 58.7°W; PA: 18310 ft; D-Value: 317 ft; Wind: ENE (78°) @ 36 mph; Temp: 40°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #18: Time: 17:56:00Z; 12.9°N 58.7°W; PA: 18891 ft; D-Value: 332 ft; Wind: ENE (78°) @ 36 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #19: Time: 17:56:30Z; 12.9°N 58.8°W; PA: 19511 ft; D-Value: 346 ft; Wind: ENE (76°) @ 36 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #20: Time: 17:57:00Z; 12.9°N 58.8°W; PA: 20138 ft; D-Value: 357 ft; Wind: ENE (73°) @ 36 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 38°F
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#109 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:05 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:Ob #09: Time: 17:31:30Z; 12.3°N 57.8°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #10: Time: 17:32:00Z; 12.3°N 57.8°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 58 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 71 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #11: Time: 17:32:30Z; 12.4°N 57.8°W; PA: 4993 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 71 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #12: Time: 17:33:00Z; 12.4°N 57.8°W; PA: 4993 ft; D-Value: 60 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #13: Time: 17:33:30Z; 12.4°N 57.7°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 60 ft; Wind: SE (134°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #14: Time: 17:34:00Z; 12.4°N 57.7°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #15: Time: 17:34:30Z; 12.4°N 57.7°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 61 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 65°F;

Where did this come from then, This would show a 60 kt flight level wind

And even if you reduce it 15 % the flight level wind 48.5 kt at 57 kt...So it is atleast a 50 kt storm

57 - 5.7 or 10% = 51.3, 57 - 8.5 or 15% = 48.5 kt

If it is a 60 knt flight level wind like those reports would indicate
then

60- 6.0 or 10% = 54 kt, 60 - 9.0 or 15% = 51 kt


All of this data came out well after the vortex message. It's possible they'll maintain 50kt, unless they determine this was purely convective rather than circulation.
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#110 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:10 pm

[quote="senorpepr]
All of this data came out well after the vortex message. It's possible they'll maintain 50kt, unless they determine this was purely convective rather than circulation.[/quote]


Oh ok thanks Senorpepr! Your doing a great and strenuous job keep up the great work! :D
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#111 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:12 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 54
Ob #01 Location: 155 mi E of Bridgetown, Barbados
Ob #01: Time: 17:57:30Z; 12.9°N 58.8°W; PA: 20679 ft; D-Value: 364 ft; Wind: ENE (73°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #02: Time: 17:58:00Z; 13°N 58.9°W; PA: 21217 ft; D-Value: 375 ft; Wind: ENE (77°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #03: Time: 17:58:30Z; 13°N 58.9°W; PA: 21739 ft; D-Value: 387 ft; Wind: ENE (78°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #04: Time: 17:59:00Z; 13°N 59°W; PA: 22231 ft; D-Value: 399 ft; Wind: ENE (77°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #05: Time: 17:59:30Z; 13°N 59°W; PA: 22700 ft; D-Value: 408 ft; Wind: E (79°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #06: Time: 18:00:00Z; 13°N 59°W; PA: 23150 ft; D-Value: 417 ft; Wind: E (81°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #07: Time: 18:00:30Z; 13°N 59.1°W; PA: 23619 ft; D-Value: 427 ft; Wind: E (82°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #08: Time: 18:01:00Z; 13°N 59.1°W; PA: 24088 ft; D-Value: 437 ft; Wind: ENE (78°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #09: Time: 18:01:30Z; 13°N 59.2°W; PA: 24505 ft; D-Value: 446 ft; Wind: ENE (73°) @ 40 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #10: Time: 18:02:00Z; 13°N 59.2°W; PA: 24865 ft; D-Value: 455 ft; Wind: ENE (75°) @ 40 mph; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #11: Time: 18:02:30Z; 13°N 59.2°W; PA: 25010 ft; D-Value: 458 ft; Wind: ENE (75°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #12: Time: 18:03:00Z; 13°N 59.3°W; PA: 25007 ft; D-Value: 460 ft; Wind: ENE (76°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #13: Time: 18:03:30Z; 13°N 59.3°W; PA: 24987 ft; D-Value: 459 ft; Wind: E (80°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #14: Time: 18:04:00Z; 13.1°N 59.4°W; PA: 25000 ft; D-Value: 461 ft; Wind: E (81°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #15: Time: 18:04:30Z; 13.1°N 59.4°W; PA: 24993 ft; D-Value: 463 ft; Wind: E (79°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #16: Time: 18:05:00Z; 13.1°N 59.5°W; PA: 24984 ft; D-Value: 461 ft; Wind: E (81°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #17: Time: 18:05:30Z; 13.1°N 59.5°W; PA: 24993 ft; D-Value: 386 ft; Wind: E (79°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #18: Time: 18:06:00Z; 13.1°N 59.5°W; PA: 25167 ft; D-Value: 362 ft; Wind: E (80°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #19: Time: 18:06:30Z; 13.2°N 59.6°W; PA: 26129 ft; D-Value: 305 ft; Wind: E (84°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #20: Time: 18:07:00Z; 13.2°N 59.6°W; PA: 26821 ft; D-Value: 266 ft; Wind: E (91°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 38°F


Okay... recon is heading out. This will be the last flight data that I decode. Any reccos that come through, I'll post those.
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#112 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:23 pm

I think see is starting to get stronger...Over the last hour or so a deep area of convection/Cdo has formed almost over the center. Banding is increasing...It looks very good. Can't wait intill recon..
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#113 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jul 13, 2005 5:33 pm

000

URNT11 KNHC 132206
97779 22000 40166 63518 70200 02012 66708 /5760
RMK AF302 0205A EMILY OB 01

AF302 is on the way... 1800Z position 16.6 North 63.5 West ... that's about 380 nautical miles away from the center... 1:15-1:45 flight time depending on what model of WC-130 it is...
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#114 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 5:54 pm

URNT11 KNHC 132236
97779 22314 40141 62518 70200 07022 66683 /5760
RMK AF302 0205A EMILY OB 02
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#115 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jul 13, 2005 5:56 pm

000

URNT11 KNHC 132254
97779 22464 40131 62208 15300 08032 16153 /2509
40620
RMK AF302 0205A EMILY OB 03

Time: 2246Z
Position 13.1 North 62.2 West
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#116 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:17 pm

Plane's position from minobs: 2308Z 12° 13' North 61° 32' West
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#117 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:21 pm

clfenwi wrote:Plane's position from minobs: 2308Z 12° 13' North 61° 32' West


I think they wont be able to get there in time for the 8 PM advisory.
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#118 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:25 pm

2318 minob 11° 50' N 61° 09' W flight level winds 35 knots//043
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#119 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:35 pm

2328 minob 11° 33' N 060° 40' W flight level wind 23 knots//009
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#120 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:45 pm

2338 minob 11° 28' N 060° 24' W
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