Emily finally pulling up?

[deltadog03]

i expect these models to move northern more.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but whats your reasoning?

hey kevin, i honestly don't know what is going to happen....i think a little northern track would prolly be right...

[jkt21787]

when storms intesify they tend to move more on a northern track. correct me if im wrong thought.

that is very true in most cases.

I just don't see this thing being a US threat unless a weakness in the ridge develops, UKMET does appear to be showing this, but since its only one right now, I find its solution questionable, not impossible mind you.

I love though how it seems to want to target New Orleans again!

[Pebbles]

UKMet has it out for N.O. I think! Keeps trying to send storms their way.

This is really too far out to be sure where it's going. Once it's within 3 days, then I have a little more faith in them. Models.. to me at least.. seem to handle direction much better farther out with more organized systems, which makes sense.. the center of circulation is much more definable. Until Emily's circulation is more easily definable from Sat loops and we have to rely on recon to get accurate fixes the models are less likely to be as reliable as usual.

[texasheat]

if it goes over the yucantan near tuesday there should be a weak low if im correct that could pull her n

[deltadog03]

IT may get closer to jamaica...

[jasons2k]

i think we can safely say now it looks like she will definately clear South America

[jax]

i think we can safely say now it looks like she will definately clear South America

agreed...

[Derecho]

I just don't see this thing being a US threat unless a weakness in the ridge develops,

When you're looking at a 7+ day forecast, remember that any shortwave that might end up weakening the ridge over North America is currently over Siberia at this moment

Remember that the next time there's a round of model-bashing; it actually amazes me how accurate they are

[jkt21787]

I just don't see this thing being a US threat unless a weakness in the ridge develops,

When you're looking at a 7+ day forecast, remember that any shortwave that might end up weakening the ridge over North America is currently over Siberia at this moment

Remember that the next time there's a round of model-bashing; it actually amazes me how accurate they are

I certainly understand that and I know things could change, anyone should know that. I'm not being Bob Breck here and giving people in NOLA or anywhere along the Gulf Coast the "all clear" by any means.

The models by in large are accurate, they make mistakes, sometimes big ones, but overall they're great to have.

[gpickett00]

the intensification in the cdo in the last few hours has been amazing

[texasheat]

whats the cdo

[jkt21787]

whats the cdo

central dense overcast. Thats the huge, deep area of convection that forms over the center, generally is a good sign that this is getting its act together.

[nolecaster]

Central Dense Overcast

[CaptinCrunch]

GFS 180 hour forecast loops

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_zslp&loop=1

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_850_wnd&loop=1

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_mslp&loop=1

[texasheat]

they will change

[deltadog03]

I have a hunch...models will shift towards the east...or more northerly...at 00z...jmo

[CaptinCrunch]

they will change

I'm sure they will over the next few days but right now most all models point in that direction.

[texasheat]

yall think she will slow down any while she is getting stronger

[deltadog03]

yall think she will slow down any while she is getting stronger

Yes, I do...this may let a more northerly trend to occur

[HurricaneQueen]

Why is the GFS showing a decrease in pressure as it goes over the Yucatan? Certainly it can't be strengthening there???

Lynn