Emily like Ivan

[jax]

Emily is on a VERY similar track to this point...
Nowhere near the intesity though.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200409.asp

[Stormcenter]

Emily is on a VERY similar track to this point...
Nowhere near the intesity though.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200409.asp

Interesting huh? I think too many people (pros and amateurs)are writing off Emily as a non-U.S. threat or as even having chance to become a hurricane. It seems like we just never learn that sometimes tropical systems never follow the rules.

[otowntiger]

Nah. She's a lot more like Tropical Storm Bret in '93. Looks like she will hit Trinidad, which is a lot like Aruba in that they almost never get Tropical storms. If I'm not mistaken, Bret was the last time Trinidad and Tobago were affected by such a system. In my opinion Emily will follow the same course and attain about the same intensity level of Bret '93 -never get any stronger and skip along the northern coast of South America and hit lower Central America. I predict that she won't be a very notable storm over time, except for her low lattitude and tenacity.

[Nimbus]

Emily has a lot better structure than Earl did so I doubt she will quietly slink west all the way to the EPAC as some of the storm2kers have been predicting.

On the other hand there is a huge ridge centered over the gulf of Mexico that would have to shift very far east of its current location to allow an Ivan track.

The aviation model has Emily actually moving WSW as she approaches the Yucatan.
I am reading that as a sign the model is programmed with the ridge stuck in its current location.

As Emily intensifies, a high pressure dome will likely build over her in the Caribbean.

When you get two strong high pressure areas approaching each other they usually do not bridge smoothly an ULL develops between them.

If Emily becomes a strong hurricane a typical scenario calls for the ULL to retreat west ahead of Emily.
This would result in the erosion of the southwest corner of the current gulf high forcing the ridge further east.
The retreating ULL would also tend to push Emily northwest up into the ridge.

Too early to be discussing final orientations but this is not a static environment by any means.

[pcolaguy]

Ivan was moving WNW at this point Emily is not.

[Wthrman13]

The aviation model has Emily actually moving WSW as she approaches the Yucatan.
I am reading that as a sign the model is programmed with the ridge stuck in its current location.

No model is ever programmed that way. They are given initial conditions (the state of the atmosphere at the start time of the model) and then the model equations, which represent the dynamics of the atmosphere, operate on those initial conditions to produce a forecast. If the evolution of the atmosphere resulting from those initial conditions is such that the ridge to the north of Emily holds, it will likely keep moving west, but the ridge is not "programmed" there automatically.