Will the NHC be right at all about Emily???

wxwatcher91 · #1 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:30 am

Currently Emily is the weakest, most disorganzed tropical storm that has a forecast to become a cat 3 within 3-5 days

I'm doubting it even becoming a hurricane!

so what IS it going to do? I mean I trust the NHC to come close to a good forecast but at this point it looks like they're going to be 60mph stronger than Emily. I dont know whether to trust this major hurricane forecast or not.

#2 Postby **loon** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:33 am

They admittedly have problems forecasting intensity, they've said it again and again. If they don't hit it on the mark, they are usually close, although sometimes completely surprised. I will admit if they did get 60mph difference thats a wee bit of a large chunk, but we shall see. Just let it unfold.

Cheers,
loon

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #3 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:33 am

Earl had that forecast to(At least hurricane). Also I think it was 60 mph earlier when it looked good. But since that outflow boundry came out of it. That is why it weaken. Expect a slow reoreganizion.

Thunder44 · #4 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:50 am

You all are jumping to conclusions, and underestimate the Carribean waters. They only finding that wind may be a little weaker than they thought and they haven't even gotten into the NE quad yet. I wouldn't say the storm is necessarily on weakening trend, because the strength of storm may have been an over estimate in the first place. You basically have no obs out there to tell you how strong this storm really is.

#5 Postby **patsmsg** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:54 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:I'm doubting it even becoming a hurricane!

so what IS it going to do? I mean I trust the NHC to come close to a good forecast but at this point it looks like they're going to be 60mph stronger than Emily. I dont know whether to trust this major hurricane forecast or not.

I think today and tomorrow you will probably begin to see significant strengthening.

Homey · #6 Postby **Homey** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:22 am

wxwatcher91........your plan to stimulate controversial discussion is working!

#7 Postby **EDR1222** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:38 am

She looks like she is holding her own right now.

wxwatcher91 · #8 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:06 am

Homey wrote:wxwatcher91........your plan to stimulate controversial discussion is working!

LOL yep EXACTLY what I was hoping for :roll:

yes I do think it will EVENTUALLY strengthen but right now the NHC basically is just moving the intensity forecast over 6 hours every update.

It's at the point where there's not enough TIME even for Emily to become a major hurricane.

people on this forum are talking about shear in the carib too ...warm waters will be great for Emily but the shear is, and will continue to kill it.

I'm not sure what to think really... that's why actually debate IS welcome

wxwatcher91 · #9 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:15 am

the last paragraph of the discussion really says it all i guess

THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF EMILY IS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE NEAR THE
CORE...AND I PRESUME THAT THE DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...UPPER WINDS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. WHILE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...IF EMILY DOES NOT GAIN SOME LATITUDE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IT COULD LOSE A SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
END UP CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FORECAST.

Sanibel · #10 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:09 pm

The large NW band leading into the Caribbean is the sign of a storm that isn't holding its bands together due to disruption.

Again this storm is starting to look like one breaking down. If it does I won't be surprised, but we'll stick with the experts until it does.

I think it has also slowed down.

Ed25 · #11 Postby **Ed25** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:23 pm

002
URNT12 KNHC 131542
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/15:25:50Z
B. 11 deg 20 min N
058 deg 22 min W
C. 850 mb 1470 m
D. 35 kt
E. 136 deg 070 nm
F. 182 deg 044 kt
G. 136 deg 099 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 15 C/ 1525 m
J. 18 C/ 1525 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF304 0105A EMILY OB 17
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NE QUAD 13:16:10 Z
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION

zoeyann · #12 Postby **zoeyann** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:28 pm

Can you translate Ed

Sanibel · #13 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:47 pm

I think the heading has stabilized at no more south than west and will stay that way until it lifts...

Sanibel · #14 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:07 pm

The main topic of the day should be if Emily is breaking down into a wave with that SE to NW elongation that is developing before the graveyard. Storms doing so before entering Caribbean unfavorability tend to fail...

Sanibel · #15 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:30 pm

Latest center burst shows Emily isn't quitting.

I think the first signs of lifting are happening.

I think she beat it and will develop. Center is vigorous...

Website · #16 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:39 pm

I really wish she'd finally start moving WNW. I hate these weak low-riders. Ivan was the only one of significant interest. The others are always snoozers.

#17 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:48 pm

Brent wrote:I really wish she'd finally start moving WNW. I hate these weak low-riders. Ivan was the only one of significant interest. The others are always snoozers.

hey brent....I think she is strengthing and she is also starting to gain some latitude...she looks pretty good to me right now...I would almost see a NW at least wobble setting up...you go girl...

dwg71 · #18 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:49 pm

deltadog03 wrote:
Brent wrote:I really wish she'd finally start moving WNW. I hate these weak low-riders. Ivan was the only one of significant interest. The others are always snoozers.

hey brent....I think she is strengthing and she is also starting to gain some latitude...she looks pretty good to me right now...I would almost see a NW at least wobble setting up...you go girl...

How exactly can one "almost see a NW at least wobble setting up"?

southerngale · #19 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:53 pm

deltadog03 wrote:...you go girl...

It's your birthday! It's your birthday!

#20 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:01 pm

LOL...mine is on SAT...anyway, they way the sat...looks i think she will start gaining lat...

Will the NHC be right at all about Emily???

Will the NHC be right at all about Emily???

Re: Will the NHC be right at all about Emily???

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