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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#81 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:46 am

Looking very good this morning... http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... pal&zoom=1
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#82 Postby jdray » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:46 am

Anyone remember a CV storm in August of 1964 that hit that hard ridge to its north?

Image



This is going to be one loonnnnnnnggggg season folks.
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#83 Postby wx247 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:47 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Looking very good this morning... http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... pal&zoom=1


I must not be seeing the same thing you are.
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#84 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:57 am

Image

12:00z tracks.They show fishbound system. :fishing:
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#85 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:00 am

Image

Looks to have develop a solid CDO near or under the center of circulation.
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#86 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:07 am

If the trend of organization continues we will see an upgrade to a TD by this afternoon.
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#87 Postby wx247 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:17 am

In the last few frames I am seeing more signs of organization, but it looked pretty pathetic earlier this morning... or maybe it was just the satellite shots that I have been looking at.
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#88 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:32 am

Ugh... I predicted Franklin would be a big problem for someone. Well... except the fishes. :grr:
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#89 Postby Stratusxpeye » Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:48 am

The fishies will have some problems with franklin bout thats about it.
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#90 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:11 pm

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE SHOWS UP CLEARLY ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10
TO 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS
NOT APPARENT ANY MORE. THE 13/0900 UTC QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED NO
CLOSED CENTER ANY MORE IN THE WIND FIELD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 34.5W
AND 36W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTLY IN THE ITCZ...FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W.
The above discussion from TPC at 2:05 PM.

No low anymore with it so TD #6 will have to wait.
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Is or isn't

#91 Postby Fego » Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:40 pm

Weird seasons isn't it? First Emily going west, going down, going up, going down, going west, going up. Upgraded to TS, almost sure a Hurricane, nope is weakening, almost a TD, nope still a TS.
Invest99 looked like had all the ingredients to be a TD, then a TS and then a Hurricane. This morning almost everyone predicted a TD by 5pm or 11pm. Ups, nope!.. no low at 2pm, meaning no TD. Hopefully we finally will take a break-rest in the next days. Here in the tropics nothing is written and anything can happen.
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Re: Is or isn't

#92 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:42 pm

Fego wrote:Weird seasons isn't it? First Emily going west, going down, going up, going down, going west, going up. Upgraded to TS, almost sure a Hurricane, nope is weakening, almost a TD, nope still a TS.
Invest99 looked like had all the ingredients to be a TD, then a TS and then a Hurricane. This morning almost everyone predicted a TD by 5pm or 11pm. Ups, nope!.. no low at 2pm, meaning no TD. Hopefully we finally will take a break-rest in the next days. Here in the tropics nothing is written and anything can happen.


Yes you said it very good.The tropics are always full of surprises.
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#93 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:45 pm

Now they Actually start a loop with the system....What is this going to be a 2000 Alberto?

ROFL :lol:

000
WHXX01 KWBC 131833
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050713 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050713 1800 050714 0600 050714 1800 050715 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.4N 35.9W 16.3N 38.4W 17.2N 40.6W 18.4N 42.5W
BAMM 15.4N 35.9W 16.2N 38.7W 17.2N 41.3W 18.3N 43.5W
A98E 15.4N 35.9W 16.2N 39.0W 17.0N 41.9W 17.8N 44.2W
LBAR 15.4N 35.9W 16.2N 38.8W 17.4N 41.7W 18.6N 44.4W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050715 1800 050716 1800 050717 1800 050718 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.0N 44.5W 24.7N 48.2W 29.8N 50.2W 31.5N 45.7W
BAMM 19.7N 45.7W 23.1N 49.4W 26.4N 52.8W 29.0N 54.7W
A98E 18.9N 46.2W 22.4N 49.7W 26.4N 52.4W 30.1N 51.9W
LBAR 20.2N 47.1W 25.3N 50.5W 31.0N 50.0W 32.5N 44.1W
SHIP 44KTS 50KTS 52KTS 51KTS
DSHP 44KTS 50KTS 52KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 35.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 32.7W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 29.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Image
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