Emily Recon

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senorpepr
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#21 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:45 am

senorpepr wrote:
cycloneye wrote:1142N 05749W

11.4n-57.4w.Let's see if they can have a message in time for the 8 AM Advisory as they are real close.


Nah, they won't make it. They haven't reached the outer shelf of clouds.


Image
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#22 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:55 am

When is the vortex?
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#23 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:58 am

Since recon is now entering the storm, I'll being flight following...

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 17
Ob #01 Location: 237 mi ESE of Bridgetown, Barbados
Ob #01: Time: 11:46:30Z; Position: 11.3°N 57.5°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 8 ft; Wind: ENE (59°) @ 30 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #02: Time: 11:47:00Z; Position: 11.3°N 57.5°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 3 ft; Wind: ENE (59°) @ 25 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #03: Time: 11:47:30Z; Position: 11.2°N 57.4°W; PA: 4993 ft; D-Value: 0 ft; Wind: NE (51°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #04: Time: 11:48:00Z; Position: 11.2°N 57.4°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 4 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 6 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 33°F
Ob #05: Time: 11:48:30Z; Position: 11.2°N 57.4°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 8 ft; Wind: SSE (165°) @ 9 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #06: Time: 11:49:00Z; Position: 11.2°N 57.4°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 11 ft; Wind: S (177°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #07: Time: 11:49:30Z; Position: 11.2°N 57.4°W; PA: 5013 ft; D-Value: 14 ft; Wind: SSW (197°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #08: Time: 11:50:00Z; Position: 11.1°N 57.3°W; PA: 4993 ft; D-Value: 17 ft; Wind: SW (219°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #09: Time: 11:50:30Z; Position: 11.1°N 57.3°W; PA: 5010 ft; D-Value: 20 ft; Wind: SW (226°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #10: Time: 11:51:00Z; Position: 11.1°N 57.3°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 23 ft; Wind: SW (230°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #11: Time: 11:51:30Z; Position: 11.1°N 57.3°W; PA: 4993 ft; D-Value: 26 ft; Wind: SW (222°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #12: Time: 11:52:00Z; Position: 11.1°N 57.3°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 28 ft; Wind: SW (223°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #13: Time: 11:52:30Z; Position: 11°N 57.2°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 29 ft; Wind: SW (222°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #14: Time: 11:53:00Z; Position: 11°N 57.2°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 31 ft; Wind: SW (231°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 34°F
Ob #15: Time: 11:53:30Z; Position: 11°N 57.2°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 31 ft; Wind: SW (229°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #16: Time: 11:54:00Z; Position: 11°N 57.2°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 32 ft; Wind: SW (224°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #17: Time: 11:54:30Z; Position: 11°N 57.2°W; PA: 4993 ft; D-Value: 33 ft; Wind: SW (230°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #18: Time: 11:55:00Z; Position: 10.9°N 57.1°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 34 ft; Wind: SW (220°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #19: Time: 11:55:30Z; Position: 10.9°N 57.1°W; PA: 5010 ft; D-Value: 35 ft; Wind: SSW (212°) @ 20 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #20: Time: 11:56:00Z; Position: 10.9°N 57.1°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 35 ft; Wind: SSW (204°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 35°F
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#24 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:59 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:When is the vortex?


I would expect a VDM within 30-45 minutes.
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#25 Postby caribepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:06 am

Fascinating graphic! Thanks (I added my own mental little plane zooming around).
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#26 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:07 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 18
Ob #01 Location: 231 mi SE of Bridgetown, Barbados
Ob #01: Time: 11:56:30Z; Position: 10.9°N 57.1°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 36 ft; Wind: SSW (207°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #02: Time: 11:57:00Z; Position: 10.9°N 57.1°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 37 ft; Wind: SSW (206°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #03: Time: 11:57:30Z; Position: 10.8°N 57°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 38 ft; Wind: SSW (198°) @ 18 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #04: Time: 11:58:00Z; Position: 10.8°N 57°W; PA: 5010 ft; D-Value: 38 ft; Wind: SSW (209°) @ 22 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #05: Time: 11:58:30Z; Position: 10.8°N 57°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 41 ft; Wind: SSW (193°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #06: Time: 11:59:00Z; Position: 10.8°N 57°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 41 ft; Wind: S (191°) @ 18 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #07: Time: 11:59:30Z; Position: 10.8°N 57°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 42 ft; Wind: S (190°) @ 18 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #08: Time: 12:00:00Z; Position: 10.7°N 57°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 43 ft; Wind: SSW (198°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #09: Time: 12:00:30Z; Position: 10.7°N 56.9°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 44 ft; Wind: SSW (200°) @ 18 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #10: Time: 12:01:00Z; Position: 10.7°N 56.9°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 45 ft; Wind: SSW (196°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #11: Time: 12:01:30Z; Position: 10.7°N 56.9°W; PA: 5013 ft; D-Value: 46 ft; Wind: SSW (204°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #12: Time: 12:02:00Z; Position: 10.7°N 56.9°W; PA: 4984 ft; D-Value: 44 ft; Wind: S (184°) @ 25 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #13: Time: 12:02:30Z; Position: 10.7°N 56.9°W; PA: 5007 ft; D-Value: 43 ft; Wind: SSW (192°) @ 32 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #14: Time: 12:03:00Z; Position: 10.6°N 56.8°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 48 ft; Wind: SSW (194°) @ 26 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #15: Time: 12:03:30Z; Position: 10.6°N 56.8°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 48 ft; Wind: SSW (195°) @ 22 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #16: Time: 12:04:00Z; Position: 10.6°N 56.8°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 49 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #17: Time: 12:04:30Z; Position: 10.6°N 56.8°W; PA: 4993 ft; D-Value: 50 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 23 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #18: Time: 12:05:00Z; Position: 10.6°N 56.8°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 50 ft; Wind: S (184°) @ 23 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 36°F
Ob #19: Time: 12:05:30Z; Position: 10.5°N 56.7°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 52 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #20: Time: 12:06:00Z; Position: 10.5°N 56.7°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 52 ft; Wind: S (187°) @ 20 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 35°F
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#27 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:15 am

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 07
Time: 11:47:50Z
Latitude: 11.2°N
Longitude: 57.4°W
Location: 191 mi SE of Bridgetown, Barbados
Minimum height at 850 mb 1458 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 52 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 25 mi NW (325°)
Maximum flight level wind: NE (56°) @ 47 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 23 mi NW (324°)
Sea level pressure: 1003 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 63°F at 5000 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 66°F at 4990 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 63°F
Eye character: NA
Eye shape: NA
Eye diameter: NA
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 850 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.31 / 6 nm
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NW QUAD 11:41:40 Z
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION
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#28 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:17 am

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: OB 08 (ILL)
Mission Number: EM
Flight ID: 0105A
Observation Number:
Time: 1200Z
Latitude: 11.2°N
Longitude: 57.4°W
Location: 192 mi SE of Bridgetown, Barbados
Surface: 1003 mb; Temp: 79°F; Dewpt: 57°F; S (180°) @ 14 mph
1000mb height: 89 ft; Temp: 79°F; Dewpt: 57°F; S (180°) @ 14 mph
925mb height: 2343 ft; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 68°F; S (190°) @ 16 mph
850mb height: 4760 ft; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 72°F; S (180°) @ 7 mph
EYE SPL 1120N05740W 1150 MBL WND 18013 AEV 20507 DLM WND 18
512 002888 WL150 18012 081
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#29 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:17 am

Will they downgrade?
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#30 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:17 am

Pressure is much higher than estimated. :eek:
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#31 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:17 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 19
Ob #01 Location: 335 mi ESE of Bridgetown, Barbados
Ob #01: Time: 12:06:30Z; Position: 10.5°N 56.7°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 53 ft; Wind: S (190°) @ 20 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #02: Time: 12:07:00Z; Position: 10.5°N 56.7°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 54 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 22 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 35°F
Ob #03: Time: 12:07:30Z; Position: 10.5°N 56.7°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 55 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 28 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #04: Time: 12:08:00Z; Position: 10.5°N 56.7°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 55 ft; Wind: S (176°) @ 29 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #05: Time: 12:08:30Z; Position: 10.4°N 56.6°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: S (172°) @ 30 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 37°F
Ob #06: Time: 12:09:00Z; Position: 10.4°N 56.6°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: S (170°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #07: Time: 12:09:30Z; Position: 10.4°N 56.6°W; PA: 5007 ft; D-Value: 57 ft; Wind: S (169°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #08: Time: 12:10:00Z; Position: 10.4°N 56.6°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 58 ft; Wind: S (173°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #09: Time: 12:10:30Z; Position: 10.4°N 56.6°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 58 ft; Wind: S (175°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #10: Time: 12:11:00Z; Position: 10.4°N 56.6°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 38°F
Ob #11: Time: 12:11:30Z; Position: 10.3°N 56.5°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 41 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #12: Time: 12:12:00Z; Position: 10.3°N 56.5°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 60 ft; Wind: S (178°) @ 48 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #13: Time: 12:12:30Z; Position: 10.3°N 56.5°W; PA: 5007 ft; D-Value: 59 ft; Wind: S (179°) @ 47 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #14: Time: 12:13:00Z; Position: 10.3°N 56.5°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 60 ft; Wind: S (187°) @ 51 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #15: Time: 12:13:30Z; Position: 10.3°N 56.5°W; PA: 4990 ft; D-Value: 61 ft; Wind: S (181°) @ 54 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #16: Time: 12:14:00Z; Position: 10.3°N 56.5°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 62 ft; Wind: S (183°) @ 58 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #17: Time: 12:14:30Z; Position: 10.2°N 56.4°W; PA: 5000 ft; D-Value: 63 ft; Wind: S (175°) @ 55 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #18: Time: 12:15:00Z; Position: 10.2°N 56.4°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 64 ft; Wind: S (174°) @ 53 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #19: Time: 12:15:30Z; Position: 10.2°N 56.4°W; PA: 4997 ft; D-Value: 64 ft; Wind: S (175°) @ 53 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #20: Time: 12:16:00Z; Position: 10.2°N 56.4°W; PA: 5003 ft; D-Value: 65 ft; Wind: S (175°) @ 51 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 40°F
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#32 Postby wxwatcher91 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:18 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 131212
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/11:47:50Z
B. 11 deg 12 min N
057 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1458 m
D. 45 kt
E. 325 deg 022 nm
F. 056 deg 041 kt
G. 324 deg 020 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 17 C/ 1524 m
J. 19 C/ 1521 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.31 / 6 nm
P. AF304 0105A EMILY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NW QUAD 11:41:40 Z
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION
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#33 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:18 am

cycloneye wrote:Will they downgrade?


I doubt it. We'll see what they find in the NE quad...

As for now, recon is headed for the SE side.
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#34 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:18 am

Doe's not impress me at all... :x
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#35 Postby wxwatcher91 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:19 am

gosh and the NHC is STILL forecasting a major out of this
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#36 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:20 am

They found winds at flight level of 58mph, so it's still a TS, but maybe not 60mph.
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#37 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:25 am

Interesting location of the center...
(denoted by the yellow flag labeled 05L.EMILY)

Image
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#38 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:28 am

This might be because of that outflow boundry, a hour or so ago. That came out of the Eastern side?

I say 45 mph tropical storm.
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#39 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:31 am

Supplementary Vortex Data Message
Inbound Ob #1: 12.3°N 058.4°W; 850mb height: 5000 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Flt level wind: ENE (70°) @ 38 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 12.1°N 058.3°W; 850mb height: 5000 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Flt level wind: ENE (70°) @ 37 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 12.0°N 058.1°W; 850mb height: 5000 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Flt level wind: ENE (70°) @ 36 mph
Inbound Ob #4: 11.8°N 057.9°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Flt level wind: ENE (70°) @ 38 mph
Inbound Ob #5: 11.6°N 057.7°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: ENE (60°) @ 41 mph
Inbound Ob #6: 11.4°N 057.6°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Flt level wind: ENE (60°) @ 46 mph
Max flight level wind (Inbound): 47 mph at 11.5°N 057.6°W
First inbound ob surface wind: E (70°) @ 35 mph

Outbound Ob #1: 11.0°N 057.2°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: SW (230°) @ 17 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 10.8°N 057.0°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Flt level wind: SSW (200°) @ 17 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 10.7°N 056.9°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Flt level wind: S (180°) @ 25 mph
Outbound Ob #4: 10.5°N 056.7°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Flt level wind: S (180°) @ 22 mph
Outbound Ob #5: 10.3°N 056.5°W; 850mb height: 5000 feet; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Flt level wind: S (180°) @ 50 mph
Outbound Ob #6: 10.1°N 056.3°W; 850mb height: 5000 feet; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Flt level wind: S (180°) @ 51 mph
Max flight level wind (Outbound): 59 mph at 10.2°N 056.4°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: S (170°) @ 35 mph
Storm Name: EMILY (05L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 10
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#40 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:32 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This might be because of that outflow boundry, a hour or so ago. That came out of the Eastern side?

I say 45 mph tropical storm.


Well... 59 mph at flight level on the SE side... I'd expect them to find higher in the NE quad, so the original estimate may not be too far off.

Recon is in the progress of banking left for a run at the NE quad.
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