About WSW movement of Emily and trending (or not), etc.

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ncweatherwizard
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About WSW movement of Emily and trending (or not), etc.

#1 Postby ncweatherwizard » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:26 pm

Some of you might be getting antsy about the WSW movement. :D
Well this is not an uncommon occurrence in this part of the Atlantic basin (for whatever reason i.e. weaker storm, strengthening ridge). The trend will definitely not be WSW, and it's not really going to South America. Outflow and banding have improved, and it shouldn't be long before the LLC really gets its act together. Consequence, it moves WNW.
Second thing, as for ridging building back to the west toward the end of the forecast period...very probable. But what remains uncertain is...how far west will it build. If something stops the progress of the ridge and insteads forms a weakness in it, then we could see a turn to the north. So don't anybody be crying out Texas/Mexico just yet. Although Yucatan looks like a viable possibility, if it's off by 100 miles in 72 to 96 hours, it's a significant change. Anything after that is just too unclear to be certain. So like one of our local TV guys says..."Don't get your pants into a bunch just yet." :D

I think I'm going to take tomorrow morning to sleep in a little longer. Between what I've been working, and then this, which is like another job altogether, I'm dragging; be back around lunchtime. Goodnight.

Scott
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#2 Postby fci » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:40 pm

I think it is a sign that this one is going to weaken and die.
I see a repeat of Earl last year.
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#3 Postby Swimdude » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:45 pm

fci wrote:I think it is a sign that this one is going to weaken and die.
I see a repeat of Earl last year.


Good analysis. I'm no expert, but Emily is already stronger than Earl; and better organized.
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#4 Postby fci » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:06 am

Swimdude wrote:
fci wrote:I think it is a sign that this one is going to weaken and die.
I see a repeat of Earl last year.


Good analysis. I'm no expert, but Emily is already stronger than Earl; and better organized.


Emily is stronger but if you recall; models had Earl to become a Hurricane and then it just fizzled in an area that Emily looks to be headed.

Maybe it is just wishful thinking on my part but the SE Carib can be a difficult area for storms to develop; at times.... (I know we have had several that have developed in the SE Carib... but remember back to those which just fizzled out.)
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#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:12 am

One big differents...Emily has formed a tightly packed LLC. under a well formed cdo tonight. This system also has classic banding over all quads...I'm thinking the nhc idea is a good one. It will likely stay just north of the north coast of south America. No my friend this is no Earl.

If current trends keep up don't be suprized to see a hurricane by tomarrow night/eary Thursday morning.
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#6 Postby fci » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:15 am

Hey I'm just an amateur giving my take on it.
Been wrong before, been right before..... lets just see.
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#7 Postby Sanibel » Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:17 am

No comparison to Earl, forget that notion.


What interests me is a low-tracker possibly hitting Belize or Cancun.
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