What's the NHC excuse this time?

[HouTXmetro]

I know we all have been caught up in the hoopla and have been singing praise about recent NHC forecast. They have been for the most part deserving of such praise. However, how come they didn't anticipate the sof west movement of Emily. With Cindy, the excuse was LLC relocation in a weak system. What's their excuse for Emily?

[Derecho]

There's next to no data from the region the storm is in. There is no AF recon out that far, almost no air traffic in that location; there is no land north of where this system is, thus nobody launching weather balloons there; thus basically no upper air data on the strength of ridging north of the system.

What, did Bastardi psychically call for Emily to jog SW in this location?

[MGC]

Drecho is right, there is limited data about the ridge. It is obviously stronger than forecast.....MGC

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, just wondering. Thanks

[Stratosphere747]

I know we all have been caught up in the hoopla and have been singing praise about recent NHC forecast. They have been for the most part deserving of such praise. However, how come they didn't anticipate the sof west movement of Emily. With Cindy, the excuse was LLC relocation in a weak system. What's their excuse for Emily?

HouTx...

This is where the NHC has their limits. They can only go by sat and the rouge ship report. Give them a chance and once recon gets in there, they will go to work.

[HouTXmetro]

I know we all have been caught up in the hoopla and have been singing praise about recent NHC forecast. They have been for the most part deserving of such praise. However, how come they didn't anticipate the sof west movement of Emily. With Cindy, the excuse was LLC relocation in a weak system. What's their excuse for Emily?

HouTx...

This is where the NHC has their limits. They can only go by sat and the rouge ship report. Give them a chance and once recon gets in there, they will go to work.

When is recon scheduled to go out there?

[SkeetoBite]

I know we all have been caught up in the hoopla and have been singing praise about recent NHC forecast. They have been for the most part deserving of such praise. However, how come they didn't anticipate the sof west movement of Emily. With Cindy, the excuse was LLC relocation in a weak system. What's their excuse for Emily?

I've grown weary of people being so critical of the most accurate weather forecasting agency in the history of the world. Three days out the point of landfall for Dennis was well within, if not dead center of the cone of uncertainty (I have the maps to prove it), while a certain commercial outlet that is hyper critical of the NHC continued calling for a New Orleans landfall up to 24 hours prior to landfall in Florida. This same weather outlet was forecasting Frances-2004 to hit the Outer Banks up to 12 hours prior to landfall on the Florida East coast.

Please accept this post in the spirit intended. This is the best we have, and they are the best there is. Guess-casting and wish-casting in these forums is a fun hobby, but there are no more than a handful of folks using this or any other forum that are even remotely capable of performing the job that the folks at the NHC perform every season. ALL other weather outlets, commercial or government, get their tropical system information from the NHC, perform their own analysis and present their own opinions or forecasts, even Accuweather.

So go ahead, sit back without a single life at risk by your decisions and forecasts, and continue to ridicule the very people who have saved countless lives.

[Skywatch_NC]

I know we all have been caught up in the hoopla and have been singing praise about recent NHC forecast. They have been for the most part deserving of such praise. However, how come they didn't anticipate the sof west movement of Emily. With Cindy, the excuse was LLC relocation in a weak system. What's their excuse for Emily?

HouTx...

This is where the NHC has their limits. They can only go by sat and the rouge ship report. Give them a chance and once recon gets in there, they will go to work.

When is recon scheduled to go out there?

Tomorrow afternoon from what I read elsewhere here at the forum.

[Stratosphere747]

I know we all have been caught up in the hoopla and have been singing praise about recent NHC forecast. They have been for the most part deserving of such praise. However, how come they didn't anticipate the sof west movement of Emily. With Cindy, the excuse was LLC relocation in a weak system. What's their excuse for Emily?

HouTx...

This is where the NHC has their limits. They can only go by sat and the rouge ship report. Give them a chance and once recon gets in there, they will go to work.

When is recon scheduled to go out there?

Early Wednesday...

[vbhoutex]

I know we all have been caught up in the hoopla and have been singing praise about recent NHC forecast. They have been for the most part deserving of such praise. However, how come they didn't anticipate the sof west movement of Emily. With Cindy, the excuse was LLC relocation in a weak system. What's their excuse for Emily?

I've grown weary of people being so critical of the most accurate weather forecasting agency in the history of the world. Three days out the point of landfall for Dennis was well within, if not dead center of the cone of uncertainty (I have the maps to prove it), while a certain commercial outlet that is hyper critical of the NHC continued calling for a New Orleans landfall up to 24 hours prior to landfall in Florida. This same weather outlet was forecasting Frances-2004 to hit the Outer Banks up to 12 hours prior to landfall on the Florida East coast.

Please accept this post in the spirit intended. This is the best we have, and they are the best there is. Guess-casting and wish-casting in these forums is a fun hobby, but there are no more than a handful of folks using this or any other forum that are even remotely capable of performing the job that the folks at the NHC perform every season. ALL other weather outlets, commercial or government, get their tropical system information from the NHC, perform their own analysis and present their own opinions or forecasts, even Accuweather.

So go ahead, sit back without a single life at risk by your decisions and forecasts, and continue to ridicule the very people who have saved countless lives.

[mf_dolphin]

I know we all have been caught up in the hoopla and have been singing praise about recent NHC forecast. They have been for the most part deserving of such praise. However, how come they didn't anticipate the sof west movement of Emily. With Cindy, the excuse was LLC relocation in a weak system. What's their excuse for Emily?

I've grown weary of people being so critical of the most accurate weather forecasting agency in the history of the world. Three days out the point of landfall for Dennis was well within, if not dead center of the cone of uncertainty (I have the maps to prove it), while a certain commercial outlet that is hyper critical of the NHC continued calling for a New Orleans landfall up to 24 hours prior to landfall in Florida. This same weather outlet was forecasting Frances-2004 to hit the Outer Banks up to 12 hours prior to landfall on the Florida East coast.

Please accept this post in the spirit intended. This is the best we have, and they are the best there is. Guess-casting and wish-casting in these forums is a fun hobby, but there are no more than a handful of folks using this or any other forum that are even remotely capable of performing the job that the folks at the NHC perform every season. ALL other weather outlets, commercial or government, get their tropical system information from the NHC, perform their own analysis and present their own opinions or forecasts, even Accuweather.

So go ahead, sit back without a single life at risk by your decisions and forecasts, and continue to ridicule the very people who have saved countless lives.

Very well said and right on point!

[mobilebay]

I know we all have been caught up in the hoopla and have been singing praise about recent NHC forecast. They have been for the most part deserving of such praise. However, how come they didn't anticipate the sof west movement of Emily. With Cindy, the excuse was LLC relocation in a weak system. What's their excuse for Emily?

I've grown weary of people being so critical of the most accurate weather forecasting agency in the history of the world. Three days out the point of landfall for Dennis was well within, if not dead center of the cone of uncertainty (I have the maps to prove it), while a certain commercial outlet that is hyper critical of the NHC continued calling for a New Orleans landfall up to 24 hours prior to landfall in Florida. This same weather outlet was forecasting Frances-2004 to hit the Outer Banks up to 12 hours prior to landfall on the Florida East coast.

Please accept this post in the spirit intended. This is the best we have, and they are the best there is. Guess-casting and wish-casting in these forums is a fun hobby, but there are no more than a handful of folks using this or any other forum that are even remotely capable of performing the job that the folks at the NHC perform every season. ALL other weather outlets, commercial or government, get their tropical system information from the NHC, perform their own analysis and present their own opinions or forecasts, even Accuweather.

So go ahead, sit back without a single life at risk by your decisions and forecasts, and continue to ridicule the very people who have saved countless lives.

post of the year in my opinion.

[HouTXmetro]

Wait one minute, I was not bashing the NHC. I just asked why they were not able to get the WSW motion correct. Somebody answered the question. (Lack of data).

Thanks

[SkeetoBite]

What's the NHC excuse this time?

Edited to add: And they are here right now reading your remarks:

mlb-resource2.mlb.noaa.gov

(My server shows when they pull up my avatar at this site)

[MWatkins]

I know we all have been caught up in the hoopla and have been singing praise about recent NHC forecast. They have been for the most part deserving of such praise. However, how come they didn't anticipate the sof west movement of Emily. With Cindy, the excuse was LLC relocation in a weak system. What's their excuse for Emily?

There is no need for an excuse.

What, exactly, do you expect form the NHC? This type of situation is extraordinary for several reasons:

1. How much experience does anyone have with westward moving tropical storms in the Central Atlantic in early July?

2. The center has been very difficult to fix since day one..in a data-void region with satellite estimates spread out all over creation.

3. They don't have the freedom that some on this message board and elsewhere tend to employ...to flip willy-nilly from track to track. My goodness...accuweather was calling for an EAST COAST rider Sunday.

The models started out north but have been trending west. Remember we are only 9 advisories deep with Emily. The biggest track erros happen in 2 places....early with a system when there is little history...and near the recurve point.

My $ is firmly on the NHC track verifying better than any other forecast track with this system. They don't need an excuse...they are...without question...the best in the WORLD at this.

MW

[MWatkins]

Wait one minute, I was not bashing the NHC. I just asked why they were not able to get the WSW motion correct. Somebody answered the question. (Lack of data).

Thanks

A subject header:
Why was the WSW motion missed?

Is orders of magnitude different than:
What is the NHC's excuse this time?

The NHC...quite honestly...makes verifiable forecasts. They don't make excuses.

This is not, afterall, a pro NHC board, or a NWS board, or anything else like that, specifically. But a headline like that one is going to draw responses regardless of the content of the post.

MW

[HouTXmetro]

Many people on here are not experts. No harm in asking questions. My question was answered. I didn't know people associated such a negative conotation with the word excuse. I'll use a better choice of words next time.

Thanks

[gkrangers]

Many people on here are not experts. No harm in asking questions. My question was answered. I didn't know people associated such a negative conotation with the word excuse. I'll use a better choice of words next time.

Thanks

Well...those who speak/read/write the English language do.

NHC's excuse for Cindy was the center reformation further north? How is that an excuse? That can't be forecasted. It happened, they were on it, and got the track right after that. When the center reforms like that its practically like tracking a new system.

Just try not to make threads/posts that sound like NHC bashing. That probably wasn't your intent, just word it more clearly from now on.

[MWatkins]

Many people on here are not experts. No harm in asking questions. My question was answered. I didn't know people associated such a negative conotation with the word excuse. I'll use a better choice of words next time.

Thanks

Perhaps...we are all a bit defensive as a result of the continued barrage of unsupported claims from Accuweather assailing the NHC. Perhaps you intended no harm at all with your question. I went back and read it again after this post...INHO there isn't much ambiguity there.

Regardless...it is not an easy deal when you have to put your forecast out there...4 times per day.

Afterall...this is a discussion board...and your topic is clearly driving discussion. Hey we are all a bit stressed out...no one planned to have 5 named storms by now and a 6th waiting in the wings. Sleep deprivation is not fun.

That reminds me I should already be in bed.

MW

[jabber]

I know we all have been caught up in the hoopla and have been singing praise about recent NHC forecast. They have been for the most part deserving of such praise. However, how come they didn't anticipate the sof west movement of Emily. With Cindy, the excuse was LLC relocation in a weak system. What's their excuse for Emily?

There is no need for an excuse.

What, exactly, do you expect form the NHC? This type of situation is extraordinary for several reasons:

1. How much experience does anyone have with westward moving tropical storms in the Central Atlantic in early July?

2. The center has been very difficult to fix since day one..in a data-void region with satellite estimates spread out all over creation.

3. They don't have the freedom that some on this message board and elsewhere tend to employ...to flip willy-nilly from track to track. My goodness...accuweather was calling for an EAST COAST rider Sunday.

The models started out north but have been trending west. Remember we are only 9 advisories deep with Emily. The biggest track erros happen in 2 places....early with a system when there is little history...and near the recurve point.

My $ is firmly on the NHC track verifying better than any other forecast track with this system. They don't need an excuse...they are...without question...the best in the WORLD at this.

MW

Nice quote Mike... I am sure the folks at the NHC are amazed at this season already. NHC is the best in the world and should be the only ones who give guidance to storms. Everybody has opinions... look at me I called her dead last night.... I am not quite eating crow for breakfast.... I will have it at lunch.

John