Tropical Storm Emily
Unofficial Forecast # 3
Tuesday July 12, 2005 11:30pm Eastern
USE NHC FOR OFFICIAL INFO
Tropical Storm Emily has continued to strengthen, and is currently up to 50 kt. The storm is moving just south of due
west, and should begin a west-northwest movement in the next 6-12 hours. After that, the storm should continue to
move west-northwest due to a ridge of high pressure to the north. After 120 hours, there is doubt on where Emily may
go, although I would be most concerned about Northern Mexico, and Southern Texas. All interests in the Caribbean, and
the Gulf of Mexico should monitor Emily.
My intensity forecast is basically the same, still calling for a Category Four hurricane, but is a little slower, calling for
115 kt in 120 hours rather than 96 hours like my previous forecast. The favorable wind shear, warm waters, and moist
environment Emily will have in the Caribbean tend to draw my thinking towards Category Four. However, should the
inner core develop more rapidly than currently forecast, the intensity may be too conservative. However, on the other
hand, should Emily fail to develop a sufficent inner core, the intensity forecast may be too liberal.
12 Hours: 11.2 N/ 57.8 W - 60 kt
24 Hours: 12.1 N/ 61.2 W - 65 kt
36 Hours: 13.0 N/ 64.2 W - 75 kt
48 Hours: 14.0 N/ 67.7 W - 85 kt
72 Hours: 15.6 N/ 73.1 W - 95 kt
96 Hours: 17.7 N/ 79.7 W - 105 kt
120 Hours: 19.7 N/ 85.8 W -115 kt
