OK I am gonna call it

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jabber
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OK I am gonna call it

#1 Postby jabber » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:56 pm

Emily is a goner.... look at the sat and she is way to far south to pull out ... Rest In Peace.

I still think she will not make it....
Last edited by jabber on Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: OK I am gonna call it

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:57 pm

jabber wrote:Emily is a goner.... look at the sat and she is way to far south to pull out ... Rest In Peace.


Go to Advisory thread and read the 11 PM one.
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Anonymous

#3 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:58 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MOVING WESTWARD...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:58 pm

Hardly this thing is becoming quickly better oreganized. The LLC has moved under the ball of convection. In is wraping fast. Outflow is perfect/banding. Hardly a goner! :x
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#5 Postby perk » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:59 pm

Jabber i think you should have waited until the 11:00pm update from the NHC before making such a statement.
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#6 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:00 pm

It's not dead but it's GOT to stop losing latitude and needs to start gaining slightly or it will be a goner. Land always kills.

I was quite surprised to see the NHC increase intensity though...
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#7 Postby rtd2 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:02 pm

perk wrote:Jabber i think you should have waited until the 11:00pm update from the NHC before making such a statement.



I agree to a Point but the Poster didnt Imply His/her statement was OFFICIAL ..That said..Emily better PULL UP NOW!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#8 Postby Derecho » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:02 pm

Brent wrote:It's not dead but it's GOT to stop losing latitude and needs to start gaining slightly or it will be a goner. Land always kills.

I was quite surprised to see the NHC increase intensity though...



Care to list all the strengthening tropical cyclones that have been killed by running into South America?
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#9 Postby jabber » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:03 pm

Brent wrote:It's not dead but it's GOT to stop losing latitude and needs to start gaining slightly or it will be a goner. Land always kills.

I was quite surprised to see the NHC increase intensity though...


I do not see it. She looked better last night and she needs to go up if she has any chance.
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#10 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:04 pm

The LLC is under the convection which is fastly becoming a Cdo. The nhc is right...Its moving just south of west.
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#11 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:04 pm

Derecho wrote:
Brent wrote:It's not dead but it's GOT to stop losing latitude and needs to start gaining slightly or it will be a goner. Land always kills.

I was quite surprised to see the NHC increase intensity though...



Care to list all the strengthening tropical cyclones that have been killed by running into South America?


I don't think there are any... which is why I think it's unlikely, but it's headed that way now. Any blind person can see that.
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Classic

#12 Postby Clint_TX » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:05 pm

Der...that was classic
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#13 Postby jabber » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:06 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The LLC is under the convection which is fastly becoming a Cdo. The nhc is right...Its moving just south of west.


South of west is into a large land mass... not good for tropical storms
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#14 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:08 pm

This storm has gotten more dangerous because it will now likely go over all water before Yucatan...
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#15 Postby jabber » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:10 pm

Sanibel wrote:This storm has gotten more dangerous because it will now likely go over all water before Yucatan...


Perhaps.. but many a storm have not made it this low. Lets see. Maybe I called it to soon, we will see. BTW I kinda like Crow.
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#16 Postby shortwave » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:10 pm

Derecho wrote:
Brent wrote:It's not dead but it's GOT to stop losing latitude and needs to start gaining slightly or it will be a goner. Land always kills.

I was quite surprised to see the NHC increase intensity though...



Care to list all the strengthening tropical cyclones that have been killed by running into South America?

Care to list all the tropical seasons identical to this one?
yea there arn't many even remotely close.
have a nice day.
p.e. ok ok ill be fair maybe 2.
Last edited by shortwave on Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#17 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:11 pm

Remember Ivan?
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Derek Ortt

#18 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:15 pm

even if this were to hit C America like Cesar, Joan, or Bret, it would survive. The 20,000 ft mountain is far to the west and all guidance turns this to the WNW well before moving over that mountain

That said, I think the NHC center position is slightly too far west. Placing it there would result in a wind speed increase
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#19 Postby cccmachine » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:17 pm

I think he took a little jog south roughly in the same area.
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#20 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:20 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:even if this were to hit C America like Cesar, Joan, or Bret, it would survive. The 20,000 ft mountain is far to the west and all guidance turns this to the WNW well before moving over that mountain


True... but wasn't it supposed to turn WNW long before now??? What happened???
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