Global Warming advocates will use this season

[MGC]

as proof that global warming is causing the world's climate to shift and the record number of named storms is a consequence of humanity's mismanagement of the environment. So, how will they explain 1933?....MGC

[Anonymous]

I interviewed Dr. William Gray, and he even asked himself the question, and answered his own. NO. Global warming does not cause hurricanes. It is a cycle.

[Hyperstorm]

How will they explain 1933?....How will they explain the lull in activity in the Eastern Pacific?....How will they explain the global reduction of hurricanes over the past decade or so?.....

Although I believe global warming is happening (there is proof of the global temperatures being warmer), I don't think this is a result of the humanity. Rather, it is most likely a result of global cycles.

In ANY case, this is NOT resulting in more activity in the Tropics...

[Andrew92]

How about they also explain the quiet 1997 season? Or will their excuse be that it was nearly 10 years ago?

-Andrew92

[Steve]

There are enough other issues they can be looking at that they don't need to be looking at oceanic warming cycles. As someone put on another forum, slowing of the Gulf stream and loss of salinity in the northern Atlantic are far greater indicators that should be dealt with.

Having said that, if we had 3 or 4 1933's in a row, then I think the question should be raised.

Steve

[feederband]

Egypt didn't always used to be a dessert...I wonder if global warming was brought up then... I don't think there are any global warming heiroglyphics?

[wlfpack81]

Honestly it'd be nice to see what political sides those who are for and against Global Warming fall into. In fact most can guess at that easily. No doubt most of the big oil men (who usually are conservative) would be against the claims of Global Warming and it'd be easy to see why. Liberals (often called tree huggin' hippies by conservatives) are normally for the idea of Global Warming. I'll end my rant there b/c I don't want to turn this into a flame war..this is better served on a political board.

For the record history (using scientific data mainly collected from ice cores) has shown that the earth has cooled and warmed in the past. So to say Global Warming is a lie is stupid if you ask me b/c it has been shown it is indeed a natural cycle. The question is whether or not we as humans have altered this process in any way since the industrial revolution. However, most people fail to address the issue of Global Warming in this way and it leads to stuipd BS arguments from both ends of the political spectrum.

[drudd1]

I find this whole argument reminiscent of all the arguments past and present about where a hurricane will go five to seven days out. Nobody knows, but they will debate none-the-less.

[SFloridaGirl]

i believe global warming has a effect on sea tempretures causing more hurricanes..

[Windy]

Global warming is real and has been empircally proven beyond reasonable doubt. Even multinationals are beginning to look at mitigation strategies.

However, this spate of hurricanes should not in any way be tied to global warming. There is no research that would suggest that global warming has anything to do with it. Of course, if extensive research were to show otherwise, that'd be a different story.

[Huckster]

Honestly it'd be nice to see what political sides those who are for and against Global Warming fall into. In fact most can guess at that easily. No doubt most of the big oil men (who usually are conservative) would be against the claims of Global Warming and it'd be easy to see why. Liberals (often called tree huggin' hippies by conservatives) are normally for the idea of Global Warming. I'll end my rant there b/c I don't want to turn this into a flame war..this is better served on a political board.

For the record history (using scientific data mainly collected from ice cores) has shown that the earth has cooled and warmed in the past. So to say Global Warming is a lie is stupid if you ask me b/c it has been shown it is indeed a natural cycle. The question is whether or not we as humans have altered this process in any way since the industrial revolution. However, most people fail to address the issue of Global Warming in this way and it leads to stuipd BS arguments from both ends of the political spectrum.

This is the most intelligent post I've read on this subject in quite a while. Thanks

[jkt21787]

i believe global warming has a effect on sea tempretures causing more hurricanes..

Sorry, but the increase in SSTs is all part of the cycle we're in right now. It has nothing to do with global warming. The warming of the SSTs is a characteristic that is seen with these peak cycles in tropical cyclone activity.

Like others have said, If global warming was a real cause in this, the Pacific would be acting up as well, they are well below normal. THIS is not being caused by global warming.

However, global warming is real. I don't think we know enough about it yet to determine whether its a true cycle or something man and technology caused or exacerbated. But, it does exist and we're seeing it. This hurricane season is not an effect of it though.

[Aslkahuna]

The quiet 1997 season is very easy to explain. The second most intense ENSO Warm Phase event (El Niño) was in its early stages during the ATL hurrican season. Likewise, the low level of activity in EPAC is tied to the multidecadal mode phase that's giving the ATL its increased activity. Post Niño season is WPAC also tend to be less active than normal.

Steve

[Stratosphere747]

Honestly it'd be nice to see what political sides those who are for and against Global Warming fall into. In fact most can guess at that easily. No doubt most of the big oil men (who usually are conservative) would be against the claims of Global Warming and it'd be easy to see why. Liberals (often called tree huggin' hippies by conservatives) are normally for the idea of Global Warming. I'll end my rant there b/c I don't want to turn this into a flame war..this is better served on a political board.

For the record history (using scientific data mainly collected from ice cores) has shown that the earth has cooled and warmed in the past. So to say Global Warming is a lie is stupid if you ask me b/c it has been shown it is indeed a natural cycle. The question is whether or not we as humans have altered this process in any way since the industrial revolution. However, most people fail to address the issue of Global Warming in this way and it leads to stuipd BS arguments from both ends of the political spectrum.

This is the most intelligent post I've read on this subject in quite a while. Thanks

I will 2nd that....

[Steve]

Good post wlfpack. But we can see it in cities like Phoenix where the urbanization has caused temperatures in the city to climb 'x' per decade. It only makes sense that concrete is going to be pretty hot. But nature always follows conservation of mass and conservation of energy. So if it's getting hot in one place, it's likely getting colder in another rather than global-wide.

The problem is the modeling that shows certain lush/subtropical vegetation can migrate over time. But there are some temperate and more sensitive trees and such that will not be able to move as easily into the northern climates and may become extinct. I don't think we want an entire country that mirrors our interstate system with a few rows of pine trees, some generic birds and scrub bushes. JMO that we should protect bio-diversity for future generations whereever possible.

I'm a fence sitter on global warming but I always maintain that we need to step as lightly on the earth as possible. We inherited a pretty nice place to live. We need to make sure that we can pass that on whether that means stiffling a few bottom lines or not.

Steve

[InimanaChoogamaga]

as proof that global warming is causing the world's climate to shift and the record number of named storms is a consequence of humanity's mismanagement of the environment. So, how will they explain 1933?....MGC

Do you actually still require proof that humanity has mismanaged the environment? Global warming aside -- how much pollution in the world should there be? It seems as if it is you who are trying to use 1933 to prove that humanity has not mismanaged the environment.

[Derecho]

How about they also explain the quiet 1997 season? Or will their excuse be that it was nearly 10 years ago?

-Andrew92

The other issue is that the Atlantic is only one of many tropical basins around the world, and overall there's been no increase in activity or strength of TCs.

[xraymike1]

Wlfpack, great post. History tells us we are in the warm period of an ice age! The desert in Ca,Az and NM were an ocean at one time, the earth changes and if you believe that cows breaking wind in Brazil is causing global warming and the ozone layer being depleted then what do you say when Mount Pinatubo sent more ash and gasses skyward than man has in known history. Yes climates change and do we have enough ego to say we did it. Only Mother Nature knows and right now she isn't telling.

[Steve]

Uhm, not to be nitpicky or anything, but the ozone layer is pretty fried. You might want to disassociate that from global warming and look at it for what it is. We know skin cancer is at an all time high. We know livestock in Chile and other parts of southern South America have been showing increasing blindness, etc. I don't know, sounds like a real issue to me when a protective shield is about 1/8" thick and it serves to block most of the UV rays the sun gives off, I'd rather not take chances with depleting it. You know, maybe it's just me but I think I'm happier without skincancer and unnecessary blindness. Of course I could be wrong....

Steve

[arcticfire]

I'll say this , and it's not directed at anyone in paticular. It would be a mistake to blindly assume that increased hurricane activity is not a result or symptom of global warming. Just because no one has bothered to do a study on it yet does not mean it's not happening.

Granted my view is slightly skewed on the matter. I live in alaska , by all means trot on up here and try and convince alaskan residents that global warming is not happening. Alaska is probly one of the most coservative states around (not suprising since our economy is based on oil) , Global warming is still paramount on many peoples minds up here.

Of course this was not the case 5+ years ago. 10 years ago I laughed at the notion of global warming. There was nothing then or even before that when I went threw school that made me belive it was even happening. That is not the case anymore.

I can remember the exact moment it dawned on me something was truly wrong. I walked outside of my apratment with my roomate to a downpour of rain. The reason we took notice was this was the middle of Febuary , normally our coldest month. It had not snowed except for one light dusting that melted off in nov that year all winter long. (normally our winters used to be from Sept/Oct -> May)

That might not seem to terribly off to many of you but belive me , when it fails to snow all winter in alaska people take notice. Our weather has not suddenly reverted back to "normal" since then. Our winters are markedly shorter and much much milder then they used to be. Our summers are becomming down right intollerable at times , I wouldn't be suprised to see 100deg temps this summer at some point.

I can't say for sure if more hurricanes are a result of a hotter earth or not , but I can tell you global warming is very real and the changes you experince because of it are going to shock the hell out of you if what we are going threw up here is any indication at all. Peronsally I wouldn't be suprised if hurricane seasons just get worse and worse , because our weather sure has not settled down.

Maby just like me 5 years ago ya'll are standing outside going "well this is really wierd", and if your experince ends up similar to mine I wouldn't hold on to much to the idea of things just "going back to normal" next year.