Unofficial Emily Forecast #2

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Storm Emily
Unofficial Forecast # 2
Tuesday July 12, 2005 5pm Eastern
USE NHC FOR OFFICIAL INFO

Emily is looking nice at this time. While the cloud tops are not as cold as they were late last night
and early this morning, it is showing nice curvature and good outflow, so it appears to be holding it's
own at 45 kt. With the ridge of high pressure in place, a west-northwesterly track should continue
for 120 hours or so. While I do not expect Emily to make landfall in Jamaica, I do expect an impact
for the island. However, any little wobble north of my track, could put the intense core over the island.
After 120 hours, time will tell whether or not a trough comes in to pull Emily up towards the North Gulf
Coast after five days, or if the ridge holds allowing Emily to continue west-northwest towards
Texas/Mexico. Time will tell. In any case, people in the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico should
carefully monitor the progress of Emily, as it has the potential to be an extremely dangerous hurricane.

As for intensification, all factors needed....warm oceanic heat content, low wind shear, favorable outflow
pattern, and a moist environment should allow Emily to become a hurricane in 12-24 hours, and then a
major hurricane in 48-60 hours. I am now forecasting Tropical Storm Emily to be a Category Four hurricane
in 96 hours.

The reasoning behind this rather liberal forecast is due to the fact of Dennis bombing from a
Category One to a Category Four in less than 24 hours last week, due to a very favorable upper level pattern.
With Emily having such a favorable upper level pattern, I would not be surprise to see such rapid increases
in intensity along the track through the Caribbean Sea. Should a landfall in Jamaica occur, the land should not effect this
intensity forecast much, since Emily would move across the island in due time.

12 Hours: 11.9 N/ 55.1 W - 60 kt
24 Hours: 12.8 N/ 58.1 W - 70 kt
36 Hours: 13.5 N/ 61.2 W - 85 kt
48 Hours: 14.3 N/ 65.1 W - 95 kt
72 Hours: 15.7 N/ 71.1 W - 105 kt
96 Hours: 17.7 N/ 77.3 W - 115 kt
120 Hours: 20.1 N/ 83.0 W -115 kt

Mike Naso

[EDR1222]

I realize Dennis was moving fairly quick, but is there a chance that any temporary cold water upwelling is in the area where he passed through that might inhibit Emily somewhat if she approaches the same general area?

[jkt21787]

I realize Dennis was moving fairly quick, but is there a chance that any temporary cold water upwelling is in the area where he passed through that might inhibit Emily somewhat if she approaches the same general area?

The NHC made it very clear that Dennis has made it MORE favorable than it was before, heat content has increased significantly.

WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

[Anonymous]

The discussion earlier stated that Dennis made the water actually warmer.

[Huckster]

Floyd,
I think you might be being too generous with the northward component. This thing is still barrelling due west.

[Anonymous]

It gains latitude due to the intensification.

[EDR1222]

The NHC made it very clear that Dennis has made it MORE favorable than it was before, heat content has increased significantly.

WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

That is interesting. I wasn't aware of that. Thanks for the information JKT. I learn something new on here everyday

[Ivanhater]

mike,
i to am studying to be a meteorologist and i just wanted to say thank you for your very informative updates, my family was hit hard during dennis, not as bad as ivan but still hit hard, you have been great leading up to dennis as i watch your updates and listen to you on the radio, keep up the good work and i will be listening to you.

p.s, very glad to hear you are conservative!

[Swimdude]

The discussion earlier stated that Dennis made the water actually warmer.

Which, to me, seems quite strange. But nevertheless, it's true, and should help Emily intensify just as Dennis did: rapidly, once she gets just a tad more organized.

[jkt21787]

The NHC made it very clear that Dennis has made it MORE favorable than it was before, heat content has increased significantly.

WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

That is interesting. I wasn't aware of that. Thanks for the information JKT. I learn something new on here everyday

I know, just another reason why this season may be one of the craziest ever. NHC has admitted it too given the last line of their 5 pm discussion this afternoon.

[Anonymous]

Crazy indeed.

[Anonymous]

mike,
i to am studying to be a meteorologist and i just wanted to say thank you for your very informative updates, my family was hit hard during dennis, not as bad as ivan but still hit hard, you have been great leading up to dennis as i watch your updates and listen to you on the radio, keep up the good work and i will be listening to you.

p.s, very glad to hear you are conservative!

Glad I can help.

[canegrl04]

Now that just seems to defy logic Dennis made the water WARMER in his wake?

[texasheat]

Floyd,
I think you might be being too generous with the northward component. This thing is still barrelling due west.

isnt it true that a stronger hurricane tends to move more WNW than W. if thats the case it would be predicted a 3 when he has it turning WNW

[deltadog03]

yes