Looks like LA failed the first test of "phased evacuati

[sunny]

Can you imagine what it will be like when Louisiana is REALLY threathened?

wwltv.com

Broussard defends early evacuation in letter to Governor

03:49 PM CDT on Tuesday, July 12, 2005


WWLTV.com

Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard threatened to rescind his support of the state’s evacuation plan in a letter he sent to Governor Kathleen Blanco Tuesday, following a disagreement over his decision to supersede that plan during Hurricane Dennis.

In a lengthy letter to the governor, Broussard defended his call for a voluntary evacuation of Jefferson Parish by stating that he was concerned that the phase-in time for Jefferson to evacuate would be the middle of the night, making it less than feasible.

Broussard has come under some fire for his decision with Blanco saying in a television interview shortly after Broussard’s call that, “We can’t have one parish going out on their own.”

Two parishes at Louisiana's southeastern tip, St. Bernard and Plaquemines, both lie within the Phase 1 evacuation area. Both called voluntary evacuations later Friday afternoon. St. Bernard officials have been openly critical of the call for a full Jefferson evacuation. Plaquemines Parish president Bennie Rouselle has declined to criticize Broussard but did say Friday that the Jefferson evacuation call forced him to call his own evacuation when he had hoped to wait and see the hurricane's Friday evening track.

Broussard hasn’t backed down from his position in light of the criticism, saying at one point that he didn’t want to be the parish president needing the most body bags.

In the letter to Governor Blanco, Broussard wrote, “If you interpreted my signature of support of your (evacuation) plan to be an abrogation of my elected responsibilities, then I will withdraw my signature from your plan...because I can no longer in good faith support it."

Blanco, during a news conference Tuesday, said she hadn't yet had a chance to review Broussard's letter, but she said it is important to have coordinated evacuation efforts when hurricanes threaten Louisiana.

"I've told Aaron if he had concerns about the process that he could bring them up to the group," Blanco said Tuesday.

Blanco said the statewide plan dictates that Orleans and Jefferson parishes must both issue evacuation orders before the state can enact contra-flow. New Orleans chose not to evacuate.

The governor did not criticize Broussard and refused to say if her preference would be for the state to control evacuation orders.

Blanco said she wants to respect the authority of parish presidents, mayors and local officials who are on the ground and know what's going on in their region during a hurricane threat.

"I think this will all work out in the long run, but I think right now emotions are high and everybody's justifying their decisions," Blanco said.

Written with AP contributions.

[LSU2001]

Looks like typical CYA to me. Jefferson Parish president handled the evac well I thought. He came on the radio (WWL) and outlined his reasons and it sounded well thought out and the scary thing is that it made sense. He wanted to call for evac. before nightfall and to me that is sensible.
TIM

Oh yeah, I hope you did not think it was really gonna work

[sunny]

I agree, Tim. But with the bickering going on now because of Broussard calling for the voluntary evacuation, I wonder if the state plan will now go out of the window and we go back to square one.

And no, I didn't think it would really work. But after last year, I was willing to give it a shot. How 'bout you?

[duris]

Looks like typical CYA to me. Jefferson Parish president handled the evac well I thought. He came on the radio (WWL) and outlined his reasons and it sounded well thought out and the scary thing is that it made sense. He wanted to call for evac. before nightfall and to me that is sensible.
TIM

Oh yeah, I hope you did not think it was really gonna work

Personally, I think it was actually political grandstanding on Broussard's part and has made a political career in part related to disasters. But, you are right that he laid out good reasons for it, including the state's own required timeline for doing things. And there ain't now way its gonna work.

[wx247]

Oh, this is horrible. I am not up with the details of the plan, but I assume that this has been very emotional for Louisiana. It is easy for people to complain now, but if it had made a turn for Louisiana... he would have been a hero.

[micktooth]

Look at some other responses on this other thread. I think calling for contra flow at the time was the biggest problem
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=67758

[LSU2001]

I was willing to wait and see if it would work mainly because I am in the Baton Rouge area so a NO evac really won't affect me. However, I really think that the 50 hour timeline is crazy. very few will evac that far out and now even less. I was really scared for NO there for a few hours sat with the models trending west. I think that this storm proves one thing. In Louisiana everything is political period. If the storm had veered west Broussard would have been a hero and Nagin would have been finished, not to mention the lives that would have been lost. So now that the storm did not make a west turn Broussard is coming under fire and Nagin looks like the really smart one. I think the important thing to remember is that this was a VOLUNTARY evac. On Sat. if the storm had moved west there was no way NO could have evacuated and many would have probably died. I think that the politics need to be left for other fights and that they need to find some way to evac without all of the political BS.
TIm

[MGC]

You can plan all you want. But, when people decide it is time to go they will go no matter what phase of the evacuation has been ordered. People will act in their own self interest......MGC

[djtil]

the NOLA mythical/theoretical/miniscule chance doomsday scenario has taken on such a life of its own that now its a runaway paranoia train. NOLA wouldve likely handled Dennis just fine.

if the idea is to subscribe to the theory that every hurricane that enters the gulf has a real potential to wipe out new orleans on a moments notice then the city should be evacuated from June to October.

this idea of a controlled evacuation days in advance is ridiculous......if a cat 5 is really projected to hit within 24-36 hours than its going to be madness but those that choose will get out in time.....creating this madness for every storm that enters the gulf (or in jeff parish case BEFORE it enters the gulf) is what has to change.

[rightbayou]

Bob Breck has officially gone out of his mind. On the 5:00 news his just said that A) He doesn't agree with the NHC track at all and B) "It's not coming here" (New Orleans) How can he be so irresponsible when this storm isn't even in the Lesser Antilles yet? What a buffoon...

[duris]

You can plan all you want. But, when people decide it is time to go they will go no matter what phase of the evacuation has been ordered. People will act in their own self interest......MGC

You're right, no phased thing is ever going to work. For that matter, I'm well-educated and had trouble following what Broussard was saying for the different areas of Jefferson to do to evacuate, and if you combine that with the contraflow directions and a bunch of less educated people.... The best that we can hope for is that when contraflow opens it will open things up enough that it won't be mass chaos.

[djtil]

that is ridiculous.......storms curve right in this hemisphere more times than not for a reason...saying thats NOT going to happen this far out is moronic.

what does Breck say? mexico for sure?

[LSU2001]

djtil,
How can you call it a myth, cat3 Betsy Killed yes killed people in NO. How from flooding. People died in their attics after climbing up there to try and escape the flood waters. I understand the frustration at all of the hype but New Orleans would not have "handled Dennis just fine" while it may not have been the doomsday scenario people would have certainly died. IMHO that is reason enough to act far enough in advance to protect peoples lives. I sure would like to see where you get the idea that it is a myth, for the life of me I cannot see where it is.
TIM

[rightbayou]

Breck says Emily will cross over the Yucatan and continue into Northern Mexico or South Texas.He allowed for NO possibility that the high would retreat at all.He alternates between total panic and nonchalance, and we deserve better.

[zoeyann]

Bob is nuts this is the second storm that he has called an all clear for before it even got in the gulf. Granted he was right with Dennis. He might be a little full of himself with that, but it is just too early to tell people where this storm will or will not go. No one knows that yet

[LSU2001]

If breck really said that then he needs to find a new line of work. You simply cannot predict tropical cyclones this far out. what an idiot
TIm

[duris]

djtil,
How can you call it a myth, cat3 Betsy Killed yes killed people in NO. How from flooding. People died in their attics after climbing up there to try and escape the flood waters. I understand the frustration at all of the hype but New Orleans would not have "handled Dennis just fine" while it may not have been the doomsday scenario people would have certainly died. IMHO that is reason enough to act far enough in advance to protect peoples lives. I sure would like to see where you get the idea that it is a myth, for the life of me I cannot see where it is.
TIM

Not sure how to put this, but I'll try.

You're right, it's not a myth. There are real dangers, but they have reached mythical proportions, the scenario has been hyped so much. If you read the Times-Picayune article, it even mixes various doomsday scenarios, not just the slow moving mouth of the river, etc., but a number of others. So there's something to what djtil is saying as well.

Bottom line, is it possible? Yes. Likely? Historical indications are, no. Either way, no one wants to be here if it happens.

[coco]

Think about it, aren't we [i]always[/i] under a voluntary evacuation? Duh! I mean, can't you leave your home/parish/state at any time you wish? You don't need an elected official telling you now is the time for a voluntary evacuation. Duh. While I was pleased that Mr. Broussard and Mr. Mastri were both so visible during the time leading up to the landfall of Dennis. However, what did get under my skin was Mr. Broussard and Mr. Mastri telling people to just make a 3 day vacation of the evacuation, go to Memphis, Nashville and listen to the music, go to HotSprings and enjoy the Springs... ugh!!!! Mr. Broussard and Mr. Mastri, some people including your constituents don't have the money for a 3 day vacation. In fact, your calling for the early evacuation cost people money. Lots of money. Even if you are calling for a voluntary evacuation, [i]suggest[/i] the voluntary evacuation don't make it sound mandatory.

[LSU2001]

djtil,
How can you call it a myth, cat3 Betsy Killed yes killed people in NO. How from flooding. People died in their attics after climbing up there to try and escape the flood waters. I understand the frustration at all of the hype but New Orleans would not have "handled Dennis just fine" while it may not have been the doomsday scenario people would have certainly died. IMHO that is reason enough to act far enough in advance to protect peoples lives. I sure would like to see where you get the idea that it is a myth, for the life of me I cannot see where it is.
TIM

Not sure how to put this, but I'll try.

You're right, it's not a myth. There are real dangers, but they have reached mythical proportions, the scenario has been hyped so much. If you read the Times-Picayune article, it even mixes various doomsday scenarios, not just the slow moving mouth of the river, etc., but a number of others. So there's something to what djtil is saying as well.

Bottom line, is it possible? Yes. Likely? Historical indications are, no. Either way, no one wants to be here if it happens.

What you say makes good sense to me and I tend to agree that there is way way too much hype but just because it is hyped does not mean that storms should not be taken very seriously by NO residents. It is the outright rejection of the notion that NOLA is a deathtrap that really gets me. Do I think it likely? NO. Do I think that it will happen someday? Yes so I think it is better to err on the side of caution.
TIm

[HollynLA]

Let's face it, the biggest problem the city faces is that it is several feet BELOW sea level. If it weren't for that one fact, the evacuations wouldn't be such an ordeal. Look at other cities, they don't have this problem, but that's because they are not a big freaking gumbo bowl. Mississippi river to the south, river level sits (is it 10' above the ground floor) and lake Ponchatrain to it's north is 15' above New Orleans ground floor, and the ground floor of New Orleans sinks one inch per year. Yep, you didn't know that, did you? This town will eventually be part of the GOMEX.