Emily looking worse on satellite...

dwg71 · #41 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:43 pm

That might be, but there are not 50MPH sustained winds anywhere in this system... NHC doesnt like to jump too far in either direction, quickly.

#42 Postby **LSU2001** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:49 pm

Brent wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I'm praying for her.

Me too.

Please don't be as lame as the last time you were Emily:

Maybe not as lame Brent but I sure do like the track, :lol:

TIm

#43 Postby **LSU2001** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:53 pm

Looks like convection may be trying to refire IMHO.
TIm

margaritabeach · #44 Postby **margaritabeach** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:54 pm

Interesting comment by Derek in the TA Forum:

"not only is there sal, but as usual, the models screwed up yet another upper wind forecast... look at the very strong trough dropping into the carib. There is no deep layered ridging that the models guaranteed"

#45 Postby **Dave C** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:07 pm

Emily's biggest problem may be thirst :lol:

Look at dry air she'll be fighting for a couple days
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

Thunder44 · #46 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:10 pm

Why do people think this storm is dying? Convection dying is probably more due to dinural effects than anything else.

stormie_skies · #47 Postby **stormie_skies** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:36 pm

I don't get it either, Thunder. Seems to me it is common for tropical storms to have convection pulses ....she certainly has a nice structure...

.....then again, what do I know?

:hmm:

#48 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:38 pm

A COMEBACK IN SIGHT!

jkt21787 · #49 Postby **jkt21787** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:40 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

A COMEBACK IN SIGHT!

No, I thought it was dead!

People have been writing off Emily too quickly. This isn't an Earl. WE have to realize we are in the convective minimum, if we don't see convection overnight then we *could* have a problem. However this may the first sign its not happening.

#50 Postby **LSU2001** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:40 pm

Maybe we need to save this thread so if she lives and becomes a major we can look back and harass those who prematurely penned her obituary.
:lol:

dwg71 · #51 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:43 pm

you need to look at the entire loop to make a statement about whether or not its restrengthening.

I need to see more, it looks pretty pathetic right now (as far as deep convection near the core), this is the time of day that it should start firing, we shall see. One thing that is not disputable is the track has not budged off of due west.

Website · #52 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:49 pm

jkt21787 wrote:People have been writing off Emily too quickly. This isn't an Earl. WE have to realize we are in the convective minimum, if we don't see convection overnight then we *could* have a problem. However this may the first sign its not happening.

Exactly.

People do this everytime a storm's convection weakens. :roll:

#53 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 5:26 pm

Brent wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:People have been writing off Emily too quickly. This isn't an Earl. WE have to realize we are in the convective minimum, if we don't see convection overnight then we *could* have a problem. However this may the first sign its not happening.

Exactly.

People do this everytime a storm's convection weakens.

I think Emily is finally starting to gain latitude....if you look at the IR loop the center looks to be finally heading a little northward...or n of due west...convection is starting to fire...we will see

baitism · #54 Postby **baitism** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 5:35 pm

Maybe im being decieved but I swear its going a little south of west.

dwg71 · #55 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 5:38 pm

I agree with the W or slightly S of west headig, Im not sure what Deltadog is seeing.

#56 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 5:43 pm

if you look at it closely...you can see the center is just on the north of that latest burst....you are seeing the old stuff push south...imo

Derek Ortt · #57 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 5:46 pm

doesnt seem to have become any better organized at all.

This has the look of Chantal, no LLC but a vigorous MLC, which would explain why convection has weakened today, no LLC means less convergence and less vertical velocity (mass continuity). Tomorrows recon flight will be very important

dwg71 · #58 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 6:00 pm

Its becoming increasingly more ragged and infiltrated with dry air. Its not doing well. Lets all hope it goes poof.

Hyperstorm · #59 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 6:10 pm

Just as Derek mentioned, the lack of continued convection is indicative of LITTLE forcing anywhere in the system. It very much reminds me of "Tropical Storm" Chris in 2000. That system had a VIGOROUS MLC, but a very poorly defined LLC. NHC upgraded it because of a HUGE burst of deep convection, but when recon went out to investigate it, they couldn't close a LLC. Oops!

Although the storm is surrounded by dry air, there are indications that the dry air has not entrained into the system just yet and as long as that remains the case, the system will remain alive.

One sign I can give is the following: Watch for an explosion of thunderstorms overnight. If that doesn't happen, Emily might be declared on life support. If we see an increase in the thunderstorm activity (which I expect), Emily will be with us for the days to come.

Remember, that this was also mentioned by the NHC a few discussions ago...this pulsing of thunderstorms (on/off) while dry air remains around. Each one of these thunderstorm explosions will only strengthen the circulation center.

This one is not yet done with...

Sanibel · #60 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 6:34 pm

PULL UP - OOOAAA OOOAAAA!

PULL UP - OOOOAAAA OOOOAAAA!

Emily looking worse on satellite...

bigest problem

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