Models show Yucatan Channel shot, or extreme West Cuba

Horatio 'Cane · #1 Postby **Horatio 'Cane** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:58 pm

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Looks like a W. Gom storm??? Mexico or possibly Texas, unless there's a radcal course change? Extreme tight cluster of models.

Comments?

jax · #2 Postby **jax** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:00 pm

very tight...

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:00 pm

More bad days ahead for my fellow northwestern Caribbean people. As I said before, when things go wrong, they sure do!!

Horatio 'Cane · #4 Postby **Horatio 'Cane** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:04 pm

Hopefully, our Carribbean Island friends will be spared with a Southerly track---possibly avoiding Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and possibly South of Jamaica? It would be nice if Cuba were spared, but doesn't look too likely for the tip, West of Havana. Hope for a Yucatan channel shot, to minimize Cuba impact????

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:04 pm

You meant Yucatan Channel right? Because Mona Passage is between Puerto Rico And Dominican Republic.

Horatio 'Cane · #6 Postby **Horatio 'Cane** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:06 pm

I stand corrected. You are right---Yucatan channel--sorry.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:07 pm

Horatio 'Cane wrote:I stand corrected. You are right---Yucatan channel--sorry.

I am going to change the title to say Yucatan Channel.

Horatio 'Cane · #8 Postby **Horatio 'Cane** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:09 pm

Edited my posts to reflect my error in Geography--sorry, and I do hope it doesn't come close to Puerto Rico---many friends in San Juan and Ponce.

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:11 pm

Horatio 'Cane wrote:Edited my posts to reflect my error in Geography--sorry, and I do hope it doesn't come close to Puerto Rico---many friends in San Juan and Ponce.

Thank you.No I dont think it will near the island as long the ridge to the north stays.

gkrangers · #10 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:13 pm

Also...I think you might mean Extreme WEST Cuba....

Horatio 'Cane · #11 Postby **Horatio 'Cane** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:15 pm

Yes, I am on a roll. I do mean WEST Cuba. Too little sleep, and too many storms.

#12 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:22 pm

With the models that tightly clustered this far out it is disconcerting for those of us who live along the W GOM. I can only hope the ridge holds strong and another reinforcing one comes in and helps push Emily further South into some unpopulated area where she can do little damage. If that does not happen, we all know what the possible scenarios are and most are not good!

Horatio 'Cane · #13 Postby **Horatio 'Cane** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:35 pm

I am hoping for an unpopulated area in the Yucatan, hopefully.

#14 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:37 pm

The HPC medium range discussion...just out seems to support the idea of a Mexico problem in 6 to 7 days:

TROPICAL STORM EMILY SHOULD BE TRACKING GENERALLY WNW OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. BY DAY FIVE...ECWMF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS A WEALTH OF OTHER MODEL DATA...ARE HINTING AT A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. TELECONNECTIONS USED PREVIOUSLY FOR THIS PACKAGE...ALSO INDICATE A TENDENCY FOR RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS...ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSIVITY AND
WEAK AMPLITUDE OF THE TROF OVER EAST CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD..SUGGEST MORE RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF/N CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS THE CASE...HPC KEEPS A MORE WRLY TRACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN OR NE MEXICO ON DAYS 6 AND 7. PLEASE CONSULT TPC FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONCERNING THE FUTURE TRACK OF EMILY.

Full forecast here:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

MW

Sanibel · #15 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:37 pm

GFDL takes a 135mph storm just off the west tip of Haiti...

Models show Yucatan Channel shot, or extreme West Cuba

Models show Yucatan Channel shot, or extreme West Cuba

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