If the UKMET and GFDL are right, Emily is done for.

[Nimbus]

With the new southern guidance the models could swing as far left as Cozumell.
What sometimes happens with these west moving low latitude storms is that a ULL forms to the west of their track.
As the storms catch the ULL they get kicked up through the Yucatan channel or over Cuba.
Loon may have been on to something talking about a Texas landfall but it will probably only be northeast corner of the state.

[wxwatcher91]

The models are wacked. It's lifting towards the islands.


I'm shocked GFDL keeps it below hurricane when it normally spins everything up to 180mph...

Yeah, I was surprised too, considering they had it over 120 kts earlier today. Normally, GFDL would turn the steam over my coffee into at least a Cat 3.

uh... the last GFDL model run (last night at 8pm edt) had Emily a major hurricane within 42 hours. thats 2pm tomorrow.
and it has Emily at 127kt within 60hours.
then it has Emily weaken some and then has it at 131kt by 84hours.
and weakens it only down to 91kts at 114hours because of hispaniola.
I know thats rediculous but I'm just saying it isnt keeping anything below hurricane strength.

[Agua]

I don't know what those models on the graphic are following but it is not Emily. NHC puts Emily around 11.4 N 48 W, while none of the initiailizations in that graphic are further east than 65 W.

[cajungal]

It could possibly take a similar track to Lili and recurve into western Louisiana.