Emily Advisorys

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also it did that to Jeanne.

[sprink52]

I looked at the topographical map of Hispanola & the mountains in the center of the island get up to over 5000 ft. Thats like higher than any thing in our country east of the Mississippi. I don't know if that type of data is fed into the models. Any storm will have to thread the needle thru PR, Hispanola & Cuba to stay together. Now if Emily follows a track near that of Frances, then we have a problem.

[Derek Ortt]

there are 10,000 ft mountains in the center of Hispaniola. The ones that Stewart has Emily tracking over are about 5-7

Not all storms weaken over mountains though for reasons that I have no clue about. Gilbert tracked the entire length of jamaica, which has 7-8K mountains, yet it intensified. Joan, later in the eya, rapidly intensified into a 3 over a <b>20,000 FT</b> mountain

[gkrangers]

Where are those 20,000 foot mountains?

[T'Bonz]

Aw man.....couldn't wait til month-end when my shutters are installed?

[/img]

[texasheat]

new models.. most south of islands which will allow quicker and better devolpment[/list]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number 6


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on July 12, 2005


...Emily moving westward over the tropical Atlantic...
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Emily.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located
near latitude 11.4 north... longitude 48.6 west or about 845
miles...1360 km... east of the Windward Islands.
Emily is moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and a
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles
... 55 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...11.4 N... 48.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am AST.
Forecaster Pasch

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 6


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 12, 2005


There has not been much change in the overall organization of the
storm as perceived from satellite images. Dvorak intensity
estimates from AFWA...TAFB...and SAB range from 35 to 45 kt...but
the convective banding features are not very prominent at this
time. Emily's intensity is held at 40 kt for this package. The
global models are forecasting an upper-level anticylone over the
tropical cyclone during the forecast period...and this scenario
would appear to be favorable for strengthening. The official wind
speed forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory...
although SHIPS and the GFDL model suggest that Emily could
strengthen at a somewhat faster rate than shown here.
There is considerable spread in center position estimates...but my
best guess is that the storm is now moving at a slightly faster
forward speed...280 at 13 kt. For the next few days...Emily will
continue to be steered by the flow on the southern periphery of a
subtropical ridge. Dynamical track guidance for this package has
shifted southward somewhat. This shift is consistent with the
global model's prediction of the formation of a rather strong
mid-tropospheric high over the southeastern U.S. Late in the
forecast period. The official track forecast is adjusted southward
in this advisory...however it is north of the latest consensus
model track.
It is notable that...with Emily's formation...this is the earliest
date on record for the formation of five named cyclones.

Forecaster Pasch


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/0900z 11.4n 48.6w 40 kt
12hr VT 12/1800z 12.0n 50.5w 45 kt
24hr VT 13/0600z 12.9n 53.5w 55 kt
36hr VT 13/1800z 13.6n 56.4w 65 kt
48hr VT 14/0600z 14.4n 59.6w 75 kt
72hr VT 15/0600z 16.5n 66.0w 80 kt
96hr VT 16/0600z 18.5n 71.5w 85 kt
120hr VT 17/0600z 20.0n 77.0w 85 kt...inland

[Zadok]

The official track forecast is adjusted southward
in this advisory...however it is north of the latest consensus
model track.

Is there a graphic with this? I can't take the suspense.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm not sure if this is possible, or if maybe we have entered the "twilight zone" but note the projected landfall of Emily.

http://www.terraserver.com/imagery/imag ... der_id=370

[Zadok]

Here we go. Looks better than last night.

[cycloneye]

Well a little relieve as it has not taken a more northward component taking the track a bit far south of here.But any change in the motion more north will bring Emily very close.

[caribepr]

I imagine we have a few more roller coaster highs and lows to go, Cycloneye.

[AussieMark]

if this verifies 5/5 Tropical Systems this year would of made landfall

has there ever been a year where the first 5 tropical systems to start a year made landfall

[Wacahootaman]

Lordy! It looks like it is heading fer Gitmo!

Hope none of them Korans gets wet or there will be hell to pay in Congress!

[JenBayles]

Lordy! It looks like it is heading fer Gitmo!

Hope none of them Korans gets wet or there will be hell to pay in Congress!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z TUE JUL 12 2005

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST.
LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 51.3W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 51.3W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 50.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 11.4N 53.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 11.9N 57.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.8N 60.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 51.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

Track much more to the left.

[cycloneye]

502
WTNT35 KNHC 121443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST.
LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT
575 MILES... 925 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[logybogy]

This is a very bad track. It won't go over Hispanola and weaken. NHC has it at a Cat 3.