emily and the hebert box

[weatherwindow]

just an aside......paul hebert, a retired forecaster at the nhc, noted that nearly every major hurricane making landfall in southeast fla, from an easterly quadrant, passed thru a 5deg latitude and longitude box southeast of puerto rico. the hebert box, as it is called, enclosed an area located between 15 and 20 deg north and between 60 and 65 deg west. since 1900, every major hurricane which landfell southeast fla, from an easterly quadrant, passed thru this box, save two: andrew and the labor day storm of 1935. obviously, not every major storm passing thru the box has reached florida. but as paul says "if a storm passes thru the box, south florida should pay attention"........emily is forecast to pass thru the box in 72 hours...............................rich

[mvtrucking]

Interesting.

[MysticOne]

Very Interesting material indeed. Thanks for sharing.

[wzrgirl1]

yes it is interesting that in 72 hours it is forecast to go through the Hebert Box and in 9 out of 10 cases it verifies that S. Florida better watch out, however the stats only verify if it is a major hurricane when it passes through and Emily is not forecasted to be a major....but it will make for an interesting few days won't it?

[flyingphish]

Hebert's Box usually verifies for Fl. impact. The question after Hebert is usually intensity. That is the question.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Andrew just barely missed it. It was close enough.

[weatherwindow]

yes it is interesting that in 72 hours it is forecast to go through the Hebert Box and in 9 out of 10 cases it verifies that S. Florida better watch out, however the stats only verify if it is a major hurricane when it passes through and Emily is not forecasted to be a major....but it will make for an interesting few days won't it?

the storm doesnt have to be a major when it passes thru the box only that it landfell sfla as a major

[flyingphish]

Agreed on Andrew. That is the scariest situatiun for Fl. A storm that bears due west(after short weakness ) under a relentless high dome. Andrew missed the altitude islands that most of the Hebert's Square storms get washed into by the same high. this is why future intensity for box storms is an issue whereas..andrew kicked our butt.

[mtm4319]

This is certainly interesting, but perhaps a more relevant question would be, "Out of the hurricanes that passed through Hebert's box, what percentage of them eventually made landfall in southeastern Florida?"

[wzrgirl1]

The HebertBox was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert (pictured at left). This former nws & nhc forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricanes that devestated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.
This image shows the two Hebert boxes. If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on what passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties.

Found this info on another site and thought I would share!!

[gilbert88]

Jeanne passed through the box, right?

[HurricaneJoe22]

Jeanne and Frances passed through it last year.

[CA _Tracker]

I never knew it had an official name.
I used to call it "The Bahamian Quadrangle"...

[THead]

mtm4319 said:

This is certainly interesting, but perhaps a more relevant question would be, "Out of the hurricanes that passed through Hebert's box, what percentage of them eventually made landfall in southeastern Florida?"

Good point. Anyone find any stats on that yet?

[weatherwindow]

This is certainly interesting, but perhaps a more relevant question would be, "Out of the hurricanes that passed through Hebert's box, what percentage of them eventually made landfall in southeastern Florida?"

a very good question.....i will try to contact paul today. he most likely has that info.........................richl

[Scott_inVA]

Sometimes you read about The Benchmark: 20°|60°. Same concept.

Most TCs that pass south and west of The Benchmark (don't cross -60°N north of 20°) make landfall or are a near miss. Many storms that make it past The Benchmark and enter the Carib get ripped by Hispaniola so passing this mark doesnt guarantee a hit, but significantly increases the odds of a landfall somewhere.

Scott

[Hurrilurker]

The HebertBox was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert (pictured at left).

Wow! That guy has a head shaped like a lava lamp!!

[crazycajuncane]

The HebertBox was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert (pictured at left).

Wow! That guy has a head shaped like a lava lamp!!

[wzrgirl1]

oops sorry...should have taken that line out....lol

[BocaGirl]

just an aside......paul hebert, a retired forecaster at the nhc, noted that nearly every major hurricane making landfall in southeast fla, from an easterly quadrant, passed thru a 5deg latitude and longitude box southeast of puerto rico. the hebert box, as it is called, enclosed an area located between 15 and 20 deg north and between 60 and 65 deg west. since 1900, every major hurricane which landfell southeast fla, from an easterly quadrant, passed thru this box, save two: andrew and the labor day storm of 1935. obviously, not every major storm passing thru the box has reached florida. but as paul says "if a storm passes thru the box, south florida should pay attention"........emily is forecast to pass thru the box in 72 hours...............................rich

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... rberts+box

The Herbert Box was discussed here last year. The link to the Palm Beach post article in the thread doesn't work anymore, but there's a good picture of the box for folks (like me) who need visual aids.

BocaGirl
Barbara