If the UKMET and GFDL are right, Emily is done for.

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gilbert88
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#21 Postby gilbert88 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:27 pm

Right... lets just forget about Emily. We know there won't be any damage or casualties in Hispaniola because, well, nobody lives there!

Emily is done for. CASE CLOSED.
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#22 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:30 pm

The models are wacked. It's lifting towards the islands.


I'm shocked GFDL keeps it below hurricane when it normally spins everything up to 180mph...
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#23 Postby The Big Dog » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:34 pm

Sanibel wrote:The models are wacked. It's lifting towards the islands.


I'm shocked GFDL keeps it below hurricane when it normally spins everything up to 180mph...

Yeah, I was surprised too, considering they had it over 120 kts earlier today. Normally, GFDL would turn the steam over my coffee into at least a Cat 3.
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#24 Postby bayoubebe » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:34 pm

My geography is not very good.

Can someone please tell me where Hispaniola is exactly? Thank you.
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#25 Postby The Big Dog » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:35 pm

bayoubebe wrote:My geography is not very good.

Can someone please tell me where Hispaniola is exactly? Thank you.

Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The big island east of Cuba.
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#26 Postby ericinmia » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:36 pm

bayoubebe wrote:My geography is not very good.

Can someone please tell me where Hispaniola is exactly? Thank you.

Haiti and Dominican Republic... Big island west of Puerto Rico

EDIT: Big Dog... That was erie how close we were thinking...
Last edited by ericinmia on Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#27 Postby bayoubebe » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:36 pm

Thanks.
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#28 Postby The Big Dog » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:38 pm

ericinmia wrote:EDIT: Big Dog... That was erie how close we were thinking...

I was just thinking that. Figured we had it covered either way. :-)
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#29 Postby bayoubebe » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:42 pm

Refresh my memory please. Did Dennis go through there? I don't recall.
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#30 Postby The Big Dog » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:43 pm

bayoubebe wrote:Refresh my memory please. Did Dennis go through there? I don't recall.

No, Dennis went through Cuba.
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#31 Postby bayoubebe » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:46 pm

The Big Dog wrote:
bayoubebe wrote:Refresh my memory please. Did Dennis go through there? I don't recall.

No, Dennis went through Cuba.


Yea. I recall that. :)

And.....the mountains there.

Thanks for the info.
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#32 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:57 pm

I would like to see the 06Z models for real. Maybe they will have the center relocation to the north taken into account. I dont really expect such a drastic change in the next run but it will be a bit interesting to see what they come up with.

<RICKY>
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#33 Postby The Big Dog » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:04 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:I would like to see the 06Z models for real. Maybe they will have the center relocation to the north taken into account. I dont really expect such a drastic change in the next run but it will be a bit interesting to see what they come up with.

<RICKY>

Well, according to what cycloneye posted in http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=67618, at least some of the models were initialized at the higher latitude.
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#34 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:10 pm

The Big Dog wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:I would like to see the 06Z models for real. Maybe they will have the center relocation to the north taken into account. I dont really expect such a drastic change in the next run but it will be a bit interesting to see what they come up with.

<RICKY>

Well, according to what cycloneye posted in http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=67618, at least some of the models were initialized at the higher latitude.
The 00z suite was initialized at 11.2N. The 11PM advisory was for 11.3N. Pretty close...
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#35 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:12 pm

hurricanes usually find a way to avoid going over islands for too long. I think this one will not be any different.
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#36 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:20 pm

If the NHC track is just a tad too far south it misses Hispanola to the north after going directly over Puerto Rico(PR isn't going to weaken storms more than 5-10 mph), especially with this going to be moving at near 15 mph...
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#37 Postby The Big Dog » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:24 pm

boca_chris wrote:hurricanes usually find a way to avoid going over islands for too long. I think this one will not be any different.

Well, I don't know about that. Jeanne was all but dead after her trip through Haiti -- stayed there much longer than anyone figured she would. In fact, most people here wrote her off.

Debby couldn't find her way off the islands and died after being forecast to go into Miami as a Cat 2.
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#38 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:25 pm

gkrangers wrote:
The Big Dog wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:I would like to see the 06Z models for real. Maybe they will have the center relocation to the north taken into account. I dont really expect such a drastic change in the next run but it will be a bit interesting to see what they come up with.

<RICKY>

Well, according to what cycloneye posted in http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=67618, at least some of the models were initialized at the higher latitude.
The 00z suite was initialized at 11.2N. The 11PM advisory was for 11.3N. Pretty close...


so, the models did a pretty good job intializing tonight then huh??
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#39 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:26 pm

Those models are way too clustered and in the 11pm advisory you can tell the NHC was very surprised how close the models were...I predict this storm will move very close to this guidance.
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#40 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:28 pm

boca_chris wrote:Those models are way too clustered and in the 11pm advisory you can tell the NHC was very surprised how close the models were...I predict this storm will move very close to this guidance.


who's?....NHC or the others on the southern route?? pretty big difference
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