#117 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:44 pm
120239
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND THE EARLIER EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE EAST
SIDE THAT HAD BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION
HAS WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS
T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBER IS 3.0/45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND
THE MUCH IMPROVED INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED TO 35 KT ON THE SYNOPTIC TIME AND 40 KT FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EMILY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS SMALL BUT SYMMETRICAL...AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. DUE TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEPER CONVECTION...THE
FORECAST TRACK HAD TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH...OR RIGHT...OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
JUST PARALLEL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
UNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...NEAR PUERTO
RICO IN 72-84 HOURS...AND THEN PASSING OVER OR NORTH OF EASTERN
HISPANIOLA IN 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SO TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...NOW THAT THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS COME INTO THE FOLD...THE
MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN 120 HOURS IS LESS THAN 120 NMI. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND CLOSE TO THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE OR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24-36 HOURS WHEN EMILY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A SMALL 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AS
DEPICTED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER
...IF EMILY DOES NOT INTERACT MUCH WITH PUERTO RICO AND/OR
HISPANIOLA...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AT 120 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 11.3N 47.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 11.8N 48.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 12.6N 51.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 13.5N 54.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 80 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 69.5W 85 KT...NEAR PUERTO RICO
120HR VT 17/0000Z 21.5N 75.5W 85 KT...NEAR ERN HISPANIOLA
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