Is this the real deal? 00:00z Models header TS,35 kts,1005

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This year is going to put 1995 over its leg in beat it. Come on Emily all you need to do is become a weak tropical storm. Wahoo...

[HURAKAN]

[johngaltfla]

Thank you very much. I guess I can never have too many bookmarks. USN website has it at 35 kt also.

Here we go again!!!!

[deltadog03]

if it goes over land wont that hurt her badly

yep especially hispanola and eastern cuba

I'm not convinced it's going that far north. My guess is close to Jamaica.

i agree brent, i think she is going under the islands...and near jamaica....

[Josephine96]

1995 has just been dealt a low blow lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think if the ridge is strong enough. It could head the way of Iris of a few years ago.

[HURAKAN]

Emily becomes the earliest that the fifth system reaches tropical storm strenght.

[Josephine96]

Matt.. I don't entirely remember the track of Iris.. do ya got a link for me sir..?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[HURAKAN]

And the WPAC though the were going to have the lead for very long, sorry.

By the way, take that EPAC!

[Brent]

NRL still calls it NONAME but has the intensity at 35 kt and the pressure at 1005 mb, just like the 0z models. After you pull her page up, put your cursor over the satellite imagery and you'll see it.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

if it goes over land wont that hurt her badly

well then put some some med. on a bandaid and slap it on the the boo boo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

NRL still calls it NONAME but has the intensity at 35 kt and the pressure at 1005 mb, just like the 0z models. After you pull her page up, put your cursor over the satellite imagery and you'll see it.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

I guess that we will have to wait for the official advisory but based in the indicators of the T numbers and the models it should be upgraded.

[HURAKAN]

No surprise this historical fact,

The last time the fifth named storm of the season in the Atlantic formed before the one in the EPAC was in 1995. Erin formed July 31 and Erick was named on August 4.

[caribepr]

I must be missing something. The new catch phrase trend among some seems to be *bring her/him on*. Am I rather obsessively watching? Yep. Is it exciting to me? Yep. But I don't quite get the bring her/him on thing... Ok, I don't get it at all...and would be happy to have it explained?

[texasheat]

Models are trending south again, if this keeps up probably will not be a DR hit anyway.

it will go into the gulf one way or the other.. i also think texas/la will get this storm. my guess yall

[zeusman]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

As I posted earlier it is clearly evident that the ridge west of TD5 appeared to intensify more rapidly and sharply than forecast in this morning 12z run. I think we have a southern tracking storm folks. My educated bet is a track that will take it just south of Jamaica.
We shall see

[millibar]

...in the south Carib., a ULL off Venezuela and the typical "blowoff" from South America, I have my doubts about this system making it through the Carib. Sea if it keeps its due W component.

Regards,
Millibar

[gkrangers]

...in the south Carib., a ULL off Venezuela and the typical "blowoff" from South America, I have my doubts about this system making it through the Carib. Sea if it keeps its due W component.

Regards,
Millibar

Yep, noticed the ULL. Just gonna have to see what the ULL does and where it goes. Because I do think Emily will be tracking through the northern Carribbean sea.

[jkt21787]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

As I posted earlier it is clearly evident that the ridge west of TD5 appeared to intensify more rapidly and sharply than forecast in this morning 12z run. I think we have a southern tracking storm folks. My educated bet is a track that will take it just south of Jamaica.
We shall see

Hey, I'm pretty sure you don't need the disclaimer if you're just giving a short opinion. Its for people who issue their own forecasts like the NHC.

I'll let the mods make that clear though.

Also, millibar, good observation with the ULL. We'll have to see if anything comes out of it. I don't think it will be huge but who knows. This of course would be good news if it could happen.