Emily Advisorys

[Sanibel]

Very close to Guantanamo...

[gkrangers]

Ugh...3 hours and 40 minutes till the next advisory! TOO LONG !!!!

[Brent]

Ugh...3 hours and 40 minutes till the next advisory! TOO LONG !!!!

I got spoiled by 2 hour advisories and every hour position estimates.

[Sanibel]

I'm waiting until Wednesday...

[HURAKAN]

By tomorrow if could be reduced to 3 hours from advisory to advisory.

[Brent]

By tomorrow if could be reduced to 3 hours from advisory to advisory.

Yep... watches.

[Canelaw99]

Try a .25 mile...I live in between where they made landfall

I remembered they were close, but didn't realize they were THAT close - wow...

[Brent]

Try a .25 mile...I live in between where they made landfall

I remembered they were close, but didn't realize they were THAT close - wow...

Not only that... but they both made landfall on the same night of the week at roughly the same time(the midnight hour).

AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR NEAR SEWALL'S
POINT FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF STUART...JENSEN
BEACH...AND PORT SALERNO FLORIDA.

AROUND 1150 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE MADE
LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND JUST EAST OF
STUART FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST.

A freaking hour apart!!! Frances was crawling so technically it was the same time.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1030 MILES...1655 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...BUT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.6 N... 46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z MON JUL 11 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 46.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 46.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 45.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 10.9N 47.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 11.6N 50.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.4N 53.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.2N 56.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 46.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

[x-y-no]

They have it going straight across the center of Hispaniola but still a hurricane on the other side?

I don't see that happening.

Jan

[Derek Ortt]

storms cannot hit the same place, unless its his home town

[cycloneye]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 11, 2005



Good Luck finding a center in the depression this afternoon. While
there is clearly a broad-scale circulation...the depression remains
very poorly organized. There continues to be a focus of low-level
turning to the northeast of my estimated position...as evidenced by
a microwave pass at 1737z...but for this package I will try to look
at the big picture and follow the geometric center of the overall
disturbance. Dvorak intensity estimates are 30 kt from TAFB...and
35 kt from SAB and AFWA. Given the cyclone's disheveled
appearance...the initial intensity will remain 30 kt.
The initial motion is estimated to be 280/12. The depression is
currently south of a narrow ridge of high pressure...and global
models agree that high pressure will build north of the system over
the next few days. This is expected to result in a west-
northwestward track with an increase in forward speed. Model
guidance is surprisingly well clustered...with the only significant
difference being the forward speed. The official forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and very close to the dynamical
model consensus.

The depression remains surrounded by dry air and is south of an
upper-level trough. However...over the next couple of days the
cyclone will be moving into a more favorable upper-level
environment and slow steady strenghening is anticipated...roughly
in accord with the SHIPS model guidance. The GFDL continues to make
the cyclone a major hurricane in the Caribbean.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/2100z 10.6n 46.0w 30 kt
12hr VT 12/0600z 10.9n 47.7w 35 kt
24hr VT 12/1800z 11.6n 50.3w 40 kt
36hr VT 13/0600z 12.4n 53.2w 50 kt
48hr VT 13/1800z 13.2n 56.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 14/1800z 15.0n 63.0w 65 kt
96hr VT 15/1800z 17.0n 68.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 16/1800z 19.5n 74.0w 70 kt

[Derek Ortt]

unless this comes in as a cat 3 or higher, its not going to retain hurricane intensity across the high mountains

[cycloneye]

[dwg71]

If the "blob" of the storm continues NW wont that tend to pull the LLC with it. I dont think anybody knows where the center is, becasue its not real defined. my bet is if it does become more defined it will be to the North of the 10.6 center call at 4PM

[LilNoles2005]

If the "blob" of the storm continues NW wont that tend to pull the LLC with it. I dont think anybody knows where the center is, becasue its not real defined. my bet is if it does become more defined it will be to the North of the 10.6 center call at 4PM

I don't see this "NW" movement you keep talking about.

MAYBE slightly north of west, but definitely not NW.

[dwg71]

If the "blob" of the storm continues NW wont that tend to pull the LLC with it. I dont think anybody knows where the center is, becasue its not real defined. my bet is if it does become more defined it will be to the North of the 10.6 center call at 4PM

I don't see this "NW" movement you keep talking about.

MAYBE slightly north of west, but definitely not NW.

The main covection "blob" has moved at a 305 heading all day, that was what I was referring to. The center is not detectable at this time. NHC discussion also said "good luck finding a center".

Look at this loop, to see what Im talking about, use 10N as a reference for due west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[HURAKAN]

I don't know how they can make advisories without having a clue where the center is. The system looks really good for a depression, maybe if it doesn't have a center, then it's a strong disturbance. RECON will tell.

By the way, how the NHC sometimes pays attention to Dvorak numbers and sometimes not?