This Season's Ridge Will Keep Creating Tampa Bay Panic

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If the ridge stays "strong" throughout the season and each storm's eventual path is dependent on any weakening or strengthening of the ridge periphery, here in Tampa Bay we are all going to end up with nervous breakdowns!
If the "Charley" situation hadn't happened last year it would be bad enough, but after that, nobody trusts the weathermen and every storm gets people on edge that enters the gulf.
We had a panic at the gas pumps Friday night with people all lined up 4 thick at each pump and folks were arguing with eachother. Not to mention that a band from Dennis was going through with wind and lightning so that nobody could hear the pump attendant trying to tell us the satellite connection had been lost and he could only take prepaid cash. Gas was pumping soooooo slow we gave up and went elsewhere, taking almost 20 minutes for $3 of gas. It was pathetic. -but people were nervous.
I hate to think what it will be like around here if we are "in the cone" during any storms again this year!

[melhow]

If the ridge stays "strong" throughout the season and each storm's eventual path is dependent on any weakening or strengthening of the ridge periphery, here in Tampa Bay we are all going to end up with nervous breakdowns!
If the "Charley" situation hadn't happened last year it would be bad enough, but after that, nobody trusts the weathermen and every storm gets people on edge that enters the gulf.
We had a panic at the gas pumps Friday night with people all lined up 4 thick at each pump and folks were arguing with eachother. Not to mention that a band from Dennis was going through with wind and lightning so that nobody could hear the pump attendant trying to tell us the satellite connection had been lost and he could only take prepaid cash. Gas was pumping soooooo slow we gave up and went elsewhere, taking almost 20 minutes for $3 of gas. It was pathetic. -but people were nervous.
I hate to think what it will be like around here if we are "in the cone" during any storms again this year!

Everything was actually pretty calm where I was on Friday - I'm about 6 miles north of you in Largo. The only thing that my husband and I noticed Friday night when we were out at Wal-mart was that the cheapie flashlights and batteries were beginning to run a little low. As far as gas, it was business as usual, no lines or anything. The grocery was fine, I saw a few people with cases of water, but overall, a typical Friday night. I think that our area seemed pretty cool...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

It seemed fine where I worked as well, so it suprised me to see the island in major prep mode! I didn't see anyone putting up boards on their windows, but a few places had the plywood at the ready. I think the gas run was because it was still unknown how close the storm would come to the coast and we had to worry about flooding issues. Quite a few people I know did leave the island and stayed with friends in town.
Actually we lucked out that Dennis slowed down a bit on Saturday. It ended up that the worst of the storm surge hit right during low tide! It was still enough to flood some neighborhoods out, but had it hit at the astronomically high tide, the whole island would probably have been submerged. Our parking lot only got overrun a little at the far side with intracoastal waters.

[gatorcane]

Tampa Bay will not get a direct GOM hit with the current ridge setup. It will take a strong trough to the NW (e.g. Charley's situation which rarely happensin July-Sept) which wouldn't happen until later in September or October.

[AlabamaDave]

So what happened last year with the weathemen and Charley?? I realize that Charley deviated in his angle of approach to the coast at the last minute, but Punta Gorda was well within the Hurricane Warning area. And the NHC advisories, as I recall, consistently mentioned that due to Charley's angle of approach to the coastline, a slight deviation in path could make dramatic differences in the location where the center crossed the coast. And that's exactly what happened. So were the TV mets downplaying a Charley strike anywhere but the bullseye of the NHC forecast track?? Otherwise, I don't see what the problem was, except for the public not paying attention to what NHC was saying.

[patsmsg]

The NHC did tell the people in the area of eventual landfall that they were under a hurricane warning long before landfall. They chose not to listen then whined about it. They should have heeded the warning. Period.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Locally everyone was saying it was still coming into Tampa Bay right up until it was actually going inland! -literally right up until like the last 1/2 hour before making landfall.
Because of that, people around here seem to think (no matter what the synoptic setup) that a storm in the gulf could suddenly "suprise" the weathermen and take an unplanned and drastic turn to the east.
I can't tell you how many conversations I had at work, at the pub the store, and at my condo trying to explain to folks that there was no way it would pull a "charley" path and suddenly head right for us.
-That is what I meant, people don't trust the local guys to "get it right" anymore with any close storm.

[stormie]

I think one reason that the meteorologists and the media were biased to focusing on the Tampa landfall point of Charlie was because that particular landfall would have set-up the dred, mythical, worst-case scenario Hurricane hit for us. Hey, good drama makes for interesting news.

What makes the situation even more dramatic in retrospect is that not only did that wobble spare us a direct it, as I recall, since we were on the left-side of the storm, we saw very little weather effects from Charlie. That's a mighty big difference then, say, forcasting a 74 degree weather day and then, oops, it only gets up to 67. I.e., your house will turn into matchsticks vs. it's going to be cloudy today. Now that's drama.

There is also a problem inherent in focusing on a Hurricane as a single point, since it isn't. People should prepare for possible exposure to the strong winds, rain, etc. that may occur due to the potential nearby passing of a Hurricane, regardless of whether or not the eye might pass over them. That type of mentality may have proved more motivating to the folks to our south, regardless of whether the eye came ashore here or there.

[Okibeach]

Although Charley did make landfall within the cone, that little deviation made a significant impact farther up the coast. Although I know it by no means compares to the hit Florida took, that deviation brought the area where I live from absolutely no threat, to hurricane conditions in just slightly over 24 hrs. The forecasters locally and NHC right up to the point Charley changed course were saying it would pass well west of here. After the change of course we became dead center of the cone. Although it made landfall here as a minimum cat 1, it caused quite a bit of damage. The locals are well equipped for just about anything, but those that had rentals and summer houses had absolutely no time to protect their homes. Several tourists had to be rescued when windows gave and the roofs blew off the houses and I dont think their was a single home on the first two rows that didn't suffer some damage. Thankfully Charley did not intensify much when he went back over water or I can only imagine how much worse it could have been. Naturally weather buffs like us on this board were not surprised, but the regular Joe (especially the tourists) had little warning. I am not trying to bash any of the forecasters, but just to show how important it is for them to be very careful in what they say (particularly the local ones) and for us to always be ready when we live close to the coast.

[melhow]

Hey, good drama makes for interesting news.

I think that we need a mascot!!!