12z UKMET a stronger Emily

[Vortex]

As more guidance comes in it looks more and more likely that Emily will eventually threaten not only the islands but possibly the U.S. Looking at the overall forecasted synoptic environment all indications are that Emily heads towards the western Gulf Coast after passing over or south of Florida.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[dwg71]

UKMET did so bad with Dennis, I think it will have to take with a grain of salt until it does a better job. Its the red headed step child of the model world for now...

[melhow]

UKMET did so bad with Dennis, I think it will have to take with a grain of salt until it does a better job. Its the red headed step child of the model world for now...

Yes, but it was consistently bad...

[TPACane04]

as miserable as UKMET performed with Dennis, I will pay no mind to this.

notice the NHC giving a lot of love to NOGAPS so far this season, per the 11am discussion.

I like no models until the storm reaches stronger TS status, and models initialize off this.

[MWatkins]

as miserable as UKMET performed with Dennis, I will pay no mind to this.

notice the NHC giving a lot of love to NOGAPS so far this season, per the 11am discussion.

I like no models until the storm reaches stronger TS status, and models initialize off this.

This is...of course...a different synoptic set-up. The UKMET had problems handling the mid/upper trough that pulled Dennis to the north more so than the tropical cyclone itself.

This is a different scenario with different features. I wouldn't dismiss any model here...this is a ridge pattern that should steer the cyclone for a long time. There aren't any troughs for the UKMET to worry about so handling a northward interaction with a NW moving cyclone isn't going to be an issue.

Also...the 12Z NOGAPS through 120 isn't too far south of the UKIE guidance FWIW....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=120

MW

[Steve]

>>UKMET did so bad with Dennis, I think it will have to take with a grain of salt until it does a better job. Its the red headed step child of the model world for now...

Sorry guys, from 72 hours out it was one of the top models. Derecho posted an analysis on the performances. It had also done quite well leading up to Cuba. It just moved it too far west in the long term.

Steve

[gkrangers]

12Z UKMET takes TD5 through the central islands, and then south of PR, over Hispaniola, then to the western tip of Cuba by Day 7. At that time, the ridge is strong and builds far west. So UKMET says gulf storm right now. Granted it has a lot of land interaction, but if the model goes south a bit, it would display a Dennis like track.

[jax]

Looks VERY similar to Dennis track...
GOM'er... you can see the ridge building
over Fl again... Realize it's WAY out there
but it is what's being suggested.

[Scorpion]

Wont expect much of storm out of this then as the islands will rip the heart out of Emily.

[DESTRUCTION5]

If it does what the UKIE says It will Be nothing but a puffy cloud with all that nasty Terrain to go thru......

[jax]

Wont expect much of storm out of this then as the islands will rip the heart out of Emily.

most of the models i've seen suggest her going
under the islands... NW Carib...

[deltadog03]

me too...under the islands...

[jax]

I say it's Texas's turn.... Texas is big and tough... they can take it!

[Brent]

I say it's Texas's turn.... Texas is big and tough... they can take it!

They need the rain badly.

[GalvestonDuck]

I say it's Texas's turn.... Texas is big and tough... they can take it!

They need the rain badly.

We'll take a TD or mild, FAST-moving TS for TX, TYVM!

[deltadog03]

I say it's Texas's turn.... Texas is big and tough... they can take it!

They need the rain badly.

yes we do...bring it our way...

[x-y-no]

Given the UKMET's leftward bias for Dennis as he moved under the ridge, this is a disturbing track for Florida. Of course, as Mike W. pointed out, the setup is different so we can't yet conclude that it will exhibit the same bias this time. Should have a hint in a couple of days, though.

Jan

[MWatkins]

I say it's Texas's turn.... Texas is big and tough... they can take it!

They need the rain badly.

yes we do...bring it our way...

Ya'know....interesting enough...the dry weather there in TX is a fairly predictable symptom of the elevated SST's in the Alantic. Although I won't post a link to the whole elevated SST thread, here is a little quote from in and a reminder to check out some excellent reading (albeit a bit technical):

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/docs/wang_etal_2005_jcl_submitted.pdf

Interesting that the first early-summer impact based on the findings of this paper may be less rain than usual in Texas and more rain than usual in the western US.

However...you may make up for the lost rainfall soon if the season continues at this pace...heck maybe EVERYONE will get a storm at this pace.

MW

[Ixolib]

And did 'ya notice how long this model run has Dennis sitting on top of Tennessee/Kentucky?

[Weatherboy1]

That's my early take, anyway. Far too early to say for certain. But with a mega-ridge forecast to stay in place and/or extend across most of the Atlantic and into the Gulf, I just don't see 5/Emily becoming a fish. I think it's just a question of HOW and WHEN she gets into the Gulf, not IF. Or put another way, do we end up with a Dennis path (2005 -- well south of FL and the islands), a Georges path (1998 -- over the islands and through the FL straits/over Key West) or an Andrew (1992 -- over FL, into the Gulf) path? Those are what I consider to be the three main options. Keep in mind I'm talkin g about path only, not intensity. Intensity is a huge open question because it all depends on how 5 traverses or doesn't traverse the northern Caribbean islands. Other factors (Shear, SSTs, etc.) look to be favorable for intensification.

-Mike