Where is TD#5 headed?

[dhweather]

North Carolina.....just kidding. As long as it stays out the GOM I don't care......MGC

Amen. Two in a week was enough fun. I think a lot of us are developing the "Florida Shakes"

[boca]

I think future Emily will track thru the Caribbean
and possibly take an Allen like track.

[tracyswfla]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Well, since I am so looking forward to going to Orlando on July 18th and 19th, I would have to say somewhere around the East coast. Based only on my personal luck.

[seaswing]

I do not think it will be NC storm after hearing that the Bermuda high is holding strong and steady. I believe it will either be a GOM or east coast Florida storm possibly crossing over like Frances and Jeanne.

[x-y-no]

I'll commit to it getting into the eastern Carribean well south of Puerto Rico. But whether it then has enough weakness north of it to head up in a general Florida direction or whether it continues west into the Gulf I can't begin to say just now.

Jan

[Trader Ron]

TD 5 is 2500 Miles from Miami. If anyone knows where it's going, they have a heck of a Crystal Ball.

It's nice to speculate though.

[Weatherboy1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Looks like one heck of a trough/ULL dropping southward off the east coast of the U.S. Why wouldn't that scoop up and deflect 5? I THINK (from my reading of the models and various discussions) it's because the trough isn't going to get far enough south and is expected to lift out before Emily-to-be gets far enough west. But if anyone can shed some light on whether I'm right or not, it'd be appreciated.

-Mike

[Brent]

i think it could take the southern route....under the islands...depends on the Atlantic ridge...

I think so too... such a low latitude. I'll be VERY surprised it if goes on the current forecasted track.

[cajungal]

Looks like a Keys/GOM track to me at this point.

[gkrangers]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Looks like one heck of a trough/ULL dropping southward off the east coast of the U.S. Why wouldn't that scoop up and deflect 5? I THINK (from my reading of the models and various discussions) it's because the trough isn't going to get far enough south and is expected to lift out before Emily-to-be gets far enough west. But if anyone can shed some light on whether I'm right or not, it'd be appreciated.

-Mike

I don't think its going to dig enough to recurve TD05...However, some of the global models develope the wave behind TD05 into a cyclone over the next few days, but they recurve this system. Probably due to the trough moving into the mid-Atlantic.

[x-y-no]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Looks like one heck of a trough/ULL dropping southward off the east coast of the U.S. Why wouldn't that scoop up and deflect 5? I THINK (from my reading of the models and various discussions) it's because the trough isn't going to get far enough south and is expected to lift out before Emily-to-be gets far enough west. But if anyone can shed some light on whether I'm right or not, it'd be appreciated.

-Mike

Timing is wrong. That trough will have lifted out well before the system gets anywhere near being influenced by it, and ridging will have built back to the west.

Jan

[Stormcenter]

Historically speaking, Louisiana usually only gets hit in slower periods. Andrew and Betsy both hit during slow periods. 1995 and 1933 were the 2 busiest seasons on record, and Louisiana did not get a single hit. Don't let your guard down, though, because that is not saying we won't see something this season.

LA. has been hit already this season.

[LSU2001]

According to that track the storm must survive hispanola before becoming a threat to anyone in the mainland US.
TIm

[loon]

I was on conference call with Mother Nature and Father Time, and I've gotten them to agree on a Hou/Gal, or "as close as we can get" landfall from one of the next 2 storms. (They were a little sketchy on the details). Father Time only wanted 50 yard line front row tickets to atleast 3 Houston Texans games ("as close to the cheerleaders as we can get" I believe was his exact words).

Mother Nature was a bit harder to please...and I think she is sending one now just to spite the area.....She wanted me to do my part to kind of curb some of the smog and pollution out here, and I was like, COME ON LADY, you are asking for miracles here, have you seen the traffic lately? ...sigh....she wasn't impressed and told me basically to "stick it" and she would take care of it herself....oops...

Soooo, all in all, I did get a possible comformation from the two of them on a Texas drought ending storm within the next two storms, HOWEVER, I might have pissed Mother Nature off in the end there, so it might not be pretty....

I tried to talk to Father Time about maybe helping me out here, but, he apparently fears Mother Nature also, and claimed I should have thought about that before I made the deal with him, because he for sure wasn't backing me now....oopss again....

All in all, the moral of the story is, unless you have time on your side, don't mess with Mother Nature.....

cheers,
loon

[frankthetank]

Big mountains in Domican Republic (10K+) will eat tropical storm/hurricane for lunch

or will it?

Thats is if it even goes near Hispanola

[weatherwindow]

the 1100 am track actually avoids the worst of hispaniola topography....over the barahona peninsula in dr and the tiburon peninsula in haiti.....now speaking of having a target painted on you....how about cuba?.. my guess would be eastern cuba-sfla-GOM...perhaps a low 2 on sfla/keys landfall

[Cape Verde]

I hope it hits Hispanola, but since that's the 5 day forecast of a system that may not be a tropical storm yet, I'll bet a dollar it misses the island.

[dwg71]

I know this is waaaay toooo early to be posting, but it (#5) seems to be heading well north of projected path. I think we should all pull for it to take a more northerly track, lets admire a storm from a distance for once.

[Brent]

Big mountains in Domican Republic (10K+) will eat tropical storm/hurricane for lunch

or will it?

Thats is if it even goes near Hispanola

Ivan was supposed to go over Hispanola about 4-5 days out.

I still say south of there... especially as long as it remains fairly weak.

[jax]

Big mountains in Domican Republic (10K+) will eat tropical storm/hurricane for lunch

or will it?

Thats is if it even goes near Hispanola

Ivan was supposed to go over Hispanola about 4-5 days out.

I still say south of there... especially as long as it remains fairly weak.

and most of the models support your opinion, Brent...