Florida Needs to Hope the Atlantic Ridge Collapses for TD #5

#21 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:52 am

THead wrote:If the ridge holds, wouldn't it just keep the storm down south of florida, and push it into the GOM again, like dennis?

not for sure...the ridge is supposed to weaken a bit causung the wnw motion around the islands and then the ridge should build again and possible a due west movement starts again..all in all it sure looks a SE USA strike at this point.

Ziplock · #22 Postby **Ziplock** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 8:42 am

I can't take it!!! I didn't get ANYTHING done the last three days watching Dennis. I just can't take the suspense!

So we're watching potential development with TD #5 with a building ridge...I can ignore individual storms just so long, but there is no way to ignore a pattern setup witha building ridge. For Florida east coast, the implications are not good.
Zip

#23 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 8:48 am

it's hard for me to be productive too...this situation does NOT look good for the FL East coast :eek:

#24 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 8:51 am

I don't wanna see a SE FL hit, after last year they deserve a break. Personally, if it were to hit, I hope it doesn't do so until likenext Tuesday at the very earliest. I am supposed to be in Ft. Lauderdale through the weekend for the finals of a pool tournament.

HurriCat · #25 Postby **HurriCat** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:43 am

Niiice.

Eh, they told us that this is all the new rage in storm seasons - "More than before, all a-headin' for our shore." A big hit this year or even a couple of smaller ones, and you'll see a bumper-crop of "For Sale" signs sprouting up. Maybe the Florida of the future is going to different. Maybe like Hawaii - where the agriculture and tourism spots are serviced by relatively poor "natives" who live in lackluster homes. With Florida, I can see something similar, with really high insurance rates and the storms themselves making it rough on the locals. (Not really a tropics post here, but we're just waiting around... AGAIN.)

Hey - is there a place to see those "spaghetti" path projections?

#26 Postby **seaswing** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:51 am

Frankly, it wouldn't hurt my feelings if more people moved out of Florida....the population is getting way out of hand!!! even more people cmoved here after last hurricane season. Panhandle property has become a hot commodity. don't mean to offended anyone but Florida is NOT what it used to be. :roll:

wxcrazytwo · #27 Postby **wxcrazytwo** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:52 am

seaswing wrote::roll: Frankly, it wouldn't hurt my feelings if more people moved out of Florida....the population is getting way out of hand!!! even more people cmoved here after last hurricane season. Panhandle property has become a hot commodity. don't mean to offended anyone but Florida is NOT what it used to be.

too many immigrants for ya???

#28 Postby **seaswing** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:57 am

Lived here all my life. Last I heard, 2000 people a DAY move to Florida. What....they want to experience hurricanes? why would people want to move here with the price of homeowners insurance now? I live inland and after last year, we are even considered hurricane prone so we have to buy hurricane addendums..... yep, wouldn't hurt my feelings a bit.....

Patrick99 · #29 Postby **Patrick99** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:59 am

seaswing wrote::roll: Frankly, it wouldn't hurt my feelings if more people moved out of Florida....the population is getting way out of hand!!! even more people cmoved here after last hurricane season. Panhandle property has become a hot commodity. don't mean to offended anyone but Florida is NOT what it used to be.

It wouldn't bother me in the slightest to see people move away from Florida. People always predict it after every major hurricane strike, but it never materializes.

I understand why retirees want to move here, but otherwise it makes little sense to me - the job market is *not* the greatest, and furthermore salaries aren't keeping pace with the rising cost of living. Definitely not here in Miami.

#30 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:03 am

I agree...hubby and I are in the market, kinda, for a house, and there's very little here in the Miami area that we can afford. It's pretty sad.

Website · #31 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:13 am

Patrick99 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:it's not looking good for S. Florida right now

I expect to hear this several more times this season...all I know is that if we are in the initial 5-day "cone," that's a sure bet it won't hit S. FL. hehe - at this point, I'd probably raise an eyebrow more if the cone was set a little right or left of us - then we'd worry about the inevitable "model trend"

LOL... best place to be is in the 5-day cone IMO. :lol:

#32 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:14 am

latest guidance may suggest a SE FL/FL Keys hit. It's very far out but that is what it is looking at now.

cajungal · #33 Postby **cajungal** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:19 am

Usually if we are placed in a cone or early models have it coming towards us, we usually don't end up getting hit.

Scorpion · #34 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:22 am

Actually, the ridge is probably protecting us because it is keeping it further south so it affects the Caribbean and GOM once again.

#35 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:22 am

JB does have a good point....ALL of the US models usually push tropical systems to far the the north right out of the gate...I don't expect a WNW for a day or so atleast...As long as the TD is weak, it will continue to push west...

Scorpion · #36 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:26 am

Actually I believe that the weaker it is the more north it would go right?

#37 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:30 am

Scorpion wrote:Actually I believe that the weaker it is the more north it would go right?

no, becuase a weaker system will get influenced even more by synoptic scale features

Rainband · #38 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:34 am

way to early to tell at this point.

Nimbus · #39 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:16 am

As Deltadog pointed out weak systems and depressions usually float along to the west in the tropical easterlies. As long as a weak storm stays south of 15N and there are no digging troughs in the vicinity a westerly motion is a good bet.

Dennis scared the crap out of us in Florida because he spun up into a cane further east than you would expect for a July storm and started recurving poleward.

The models will probably continue to sweep left with their tracks until TD5 starts to spin up.

Since there is a strong ridge forecast to be northeast of Florida late in the period if the storm does stay in the carribean we have less to worry about in terms of recurve.

What TD5 is more likely to do to avoid Florida is stay TD5 and not become a named storm too soon. Florida will be out of the GOM rodeo in that case.

Sanibel · #40 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 12:29 pm

Bet they are more left again tomorrow. If the storm keeps its head down by not sprouting high tops that get caught in the steering currents it will break into the Caribbean on a long track.

Last year Earl got chewed up by being too close on the tail of Charley. Maybe the graveyard "zone" will get this one?

Florida Needs to Hope the Atlantic Ridge Collapses for TD #5

I swear

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