UNOFFICIAL...Five Forecast 1; conservative--widespread track

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 1:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /five.html

Long forecast this time to try explaining everything. Dry air will be significant; it's unsure how significant. The depression could fight it off well, but at the same time it could simply open back up into a wave. So this is the case, where the track forecast is actually quite dependent partially on the strength of the system, and the strength of its surroundings (i.e. ridging). Also Dennis has introduced, directly or indirectly depending on your location, some pretty stiff and increased shear across most of the western Atlantic and northern and western Caribbean. As Dennis further weakens, that shear will die down a little, especially to the south.
In short, there's alot going against this depression in the short-term.

Scott

[patsmsg]

Nice job, Scott. I guess, for now, we sit back and watch.