5:30 PM TWO,Depression tonight or monday

[texasheat]

So, looks like it could head to the GOM, too?

yes

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah thats what you get when you stay up for 24 hours....

Ok the latest loop shows that deep covnection, is starting to fire over the LLC. This thing is becoming much better oreganized by the minute.

Also the Global models don't even went to make this half as strong as the system behind it.

The Gfs closes a low off as it moves westward then west-northwestward. While the system off the Africa it develops it takes it west-northwest then northwest. In which it seems it wents it to be a fish.

The Gfdl about the same picture...

Cmc. is the other way around with 98L getting stronger then the system behind it turns northwest.

Ecmwf, shows a weak system moving through the Caribbean. While showing that other system moving northwest.(Possible fish)

[Guest]

Matt your forecast was instructive.

The CMC model run of 12Z today develops a weak system taking to past the NE Lesser Antilles.

GFDL is not acknowledging the system much.

MM5 which developed it in model run last night has not yet updated.

NOGAPS develop it only as far as a TD.

UKMet never did like this system.

The global models are not liking this but they are liking the one behind even though they turn it into a fish.

The NHC suite however tell a different story and I am not one to quarrel with NHC.

[cycloneye]

It looks like convection is comming back over the low as earlier today it was not as concentrated.

[Guest]

It looks like convection is comming back over the low as earlier today it was not as concentrated.

This is the major concern. While QuickScat looks lovely and banding features were evident there was no consistent shower activity to seriously warrant an upgrading.

[Brent]

It's VERY far south... any chance it might just hit South America or run into Central America?

[cycloneye]

GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.8 42.0 275./11.1
6 10.9 42.5 279./ 4.9
12 11.4 43.7 293./12.5
18 11.4 45.5 270./17.1
24 11.7 46.0 304./ 6.7
30 12.0 47.2 283./11.9
36 12.2 48.5 280./13.0
42 12.7 49.9 287./14.5
48 13.1 51.7 285./18.1
54 13.4 53.3 279./15.7
60 13.8 54.9 286./15.8
66 14.1 56.5 279./15.8
72 14.8 58.2 294./17.9
78 15.2 59.8 282./16.1
84 15.6 61.2 285./13.8
90 16.2 62.3 297./12.6
96 17.1 63.7 306./16.0
102 17.6 64.8 292./12.0
108 18.4 65.9 308./12.5
114 19.1 66.8 307./11.9
120 20.0 67.6 318./11.2
126 20.6 68.5 305./10.8


I dont like this GFDL run as it puts whatever this may be around 30 miiles from where I am.

[Guest]

It's VERY far south... any chance it might just hit South America or run into Central America?

I wouldn't say that it is far south at all. It is above 10 degrees where the Coriolis Force http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/fw/crls.rxml) has influence and it is a low pressure with a surface circulation so there will be recurvature.

Warm water is ahead and the NHC folks are probably waiting to see if thundershowers will pop up AND remain. Otherwise, to put it crudely, this is just one huge tornado.

[jlauderdal]

GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.8 42.0 275./11.1
6 10.9 42.5 279./ 4.9
12 11.4 43.7 293./12.5
18 11.4 45.5 270./17.1
24 11.7 46.0 304./ 6.7
30 12.0 47.2 283./11.9
36 12.2 48.5 280./13.0
42 12.7 49.9 287./14.5
48 13.1 51.7 285./18.1
54 13.4 53.3 279./15.7
60 13.8 54.9 286./15.8
66 14.1 56.5 279./15.8
72 14.8 58.2 294./17.9
78 15.2 59.8 282./16.1
84 15.6 61.2 285./13.8
90 16.2 62.3 297./12.6
96 17.1 63.7 306./16.0
102 17.6 64.8 292./12.0
108 18.4 65.9 308./12.5
114 19.1 66.8 307./11.9
120 20.0 67.6 318./11.2
126 20.6 68.5 305./10.8


I dont like this GFDL run as it puts whatever this may be around 30 miiles from where I am.

It easily stays within the 20/60 benchmark for a US strike

[Wnghs2007]

Well Apparently when the New 00z models come out...Winds will be up to 25 knts and pressure down to 1010 mb

20050711.0015.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.98LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-109N-415W.jpg


Check out the blowup of convection



From NRL...

[cycloneye]

10/2345 UTC 10.5N 42.3W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

[Guest]

Well Apparently when the New 00z models come out...Winds will be up to 25 knts and pressure down to 1010 mb

20050711.0015.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.98LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-109N-415W.jpg

Yes, see what you mean.

New GFDL puts the system between Dominica and Guadeloupe, across St Croix and eastern Puerto Rico. We need some intensity model information to add to this scenario.

Hope NHC does a new run with their suite soon.

[Guest]

10/2345 UTC 10.5N 42.3W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

Essentially no change from 1745UTC.

[MetroMike]

The fact that it is at such a low latitude gives it little chance to be a fish. Usually these types make it to some land area...

[Guest]

The fact that it is at such a low latitude gives it little chance to be a fish. Usually these types make it to some land area...

Agreed ... once they develop. At this rate, this thing is headed for the "graveyard" in the SW Caribbean Sea

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Grave yard is the Eastern Caribbean....In Dennis believe it or not developed an the grave yard durning early July. Thats pretty rare...

[Guest]

The Grave yard is the Eastern Caribbean....In Dennis believe it or not developed an the grave yard durning early July. Thats pretty rare...

I interpret the Eastern Caribbean to be where the chain of islands is located.

The graveyard to which I refer is that area in the south Caribbean Sea west of Grenada. My reason for calling it that was because I first read it when it was introduced by Avila back in 2000 (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2000/dis/NAL1400.025.html)

He was writing in the 5 pm discussion for Joyce which was at the time (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2000/pub/PAL1400.025.html) located near latitude 11.9 north longitude 62.8 west or about 75 miles west of Grenada in the Southeastern Caribbean

THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND I WOULD DARE TO SAY THAT IT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE IS
ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH THE OLD TIMERS CALL THE HURRICANE GRAVEYARD. HISTORICALLY...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS... TROPICAL CYCLONES DO NOT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...JOYCE IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED WHEN THE DEPRESSION REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...IF IT SURVIVES. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IMMEDIATELY RESTRENGTHEN JOYCE BUT THAT IT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

It could be that we are talking about the same area.

[Sanibel]

Geesh, hurricane fatigue already.


That thing reminds me of Charley. Maybe Ortt's reaction is intuitive.

The only good thing is it looks to be riding above the main ITCZ, possibly separating it for early recurve.

Those 2005 SST's could be panning out now...

[jlauderdal]

10/2345 UTC 10.5N 42.3W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

peachy, it has t numbers already. what is the record for named storms in a season? if we do all the letters will we get arlene jr.?

[Mattie]

What did you mean, Yoda - I think it read fine