5:30 PM TWO,Depression tonight or monday

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cycloneye
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5:30 PM TWO,Depression tonight or monday

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:13 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 102106
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DENNIS...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
OR NEAR MOLINO FLORIDA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 1180 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:16 pm

:sigh: Maybe Starbucks should start suppling us with caffeine. This is going to be a while.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:16 pm

EMILY IS ON THE WAY!! NO BORING DAYS AHEAD!!!
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:17 pm

BY THE WAY, TAKE THAT WPAC AND EPAC!!!!
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#5 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:18 pm

It probably would of been upgraded today, if they weren't so busy with Dennis.
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:18 pm

senorpepr wrote::sigh: Maybe Starbucks should start suppling us with caffeine. This is going to be a while.


Oh boy Mike more recons and for me more advisorys. :roll:
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#7 Postby abajan » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:18 pm

What is the worst case scenario for Barbados with this system?
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NWS miami rather dismissive ...

#8 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:19 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...WITH DENNIS ABOUT OUT OF PICTURE EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS THE NEXT THING WE HAVE TO LOOK FORWARD TO WILL BE
THE WAVE AROUND 45W. THE TWO CHOICES ARE THAT IT WILL MOVE PAST US
NEXT SUNDAY OR IT WILL PULL UP EAST OF US NEXT SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
WILL GO WITH THE PULL UP TO THE EAST CHOICE.


This is the first part of their latest AFD. Seem to think 5/Emily to be will be a recurve candidate. I'm somewhat surprised given how far out, given that models such as the tropicals, the ECMWF, the GFS, etc. all either take this thing pretty far west into the Caribbean or over/through the northern Carribean islands and into the Gulf. But either way, guess we have lots of time to wait and see what plays out.

-Mike
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#9 Postby BUD » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:20 pm

LLLLLLLEEETT get readly to rumble!!!!!!!!!
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#10 Postby crazycajuncane » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:20 pm

senorpepr wrote::sigh: Maybe Starbucks should start suppling us with caffeine. This is going to be a while.


I have a great marketing caimpaign....

Are you one of those people who get little sleep during Hurricane season? Are you plotting coordinates on a map and watching loops till you get dizzy? Starbucks is here to help. We'll get you through those long nights full of north and west wobbles. We are committed to keeping you sane while watching the next Hurricane.

We can then post this message and get free coffee and funding for the forums!!!
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And NWS Melbourne ...

#11 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:22 pm

TUE-SUN...SEMI-PERMANENT WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND ONSHORE. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

TWO OTHER FEATURES TO CONSIDER: POORLY INITIALIZED UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED 25N 65W WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE THIS SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT IN TERMS OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MAY AFFECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID-LATE WEEK. ALSO...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEKEND.


says "take that you Miami guys!" :lol: Seriously, though, if you put together a forecast that the ridge should stay basically anchored across the Atlantic with a couple of the model forecasts of a W/WNW moving wave, you get a recipe for some potential U.S. impact down the road. Too early to say where, or even if, but given the setup, the system's low latitude and more, I'd give it pretty decent odds of becoming someone's problem a week out vs. being just a "fish."

-Mike
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Scorpion

#12 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:22 pm

Here we go! Going to be a 5-4 lead over the EPAC in July. Amazing.
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#13 Postby zoeyann » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:23 pm

great idea. we should talk to starbucks about sponsering the site
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#14 Postby TSmith274 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:23 pm

Where is a site I can get the models for this. My usual source, weatherunderground.com hasn't posted anything for this system yet. Anybody?
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#15 Postby joseph01 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:25 pm

HURAKAN wrote:EMILY IS ON THE WAY!! NO BORING DAYS AHEAD!!! BY THE WAY, TAKE THAT WPAC AND EPAC!!!!


Spoken like a true weather fanatic. :lol:
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:25 pm

TSmith274 wrote:Where is a site I can get the models for this. My usual source, weatherunderground.com hasn't posted anything for this system yet. Anybody?




http://weather.net-waves.com/tropics.php

Here is the link to invest 98 about the models.Click where it says show me the NHC models then where it says Dennis look for 98 and there you will have the models.
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Derek Ortt

#17 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:29 pm

great

a 6 pack of smirnoff ice really sounds good now. Will get my sleep so I can start focusing on this little s***
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#18 Postby sunny » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:30 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:great

a 6 pack of smirnoff ice really sounds good now. Will get my sleep so I can start focusing on this little s***


Tell me where to send your smirnoff, Derek!!
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gkrangers

#19 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:30 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:great

a 6 pack of smirnoff ice really sounds good now. Will get my sleep so I can start focusing on this little s***
I think its going to become subtropical.
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Scorpion

#20 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 10, 2005 4:31 pm

Lol Derek. I dont think im gonna do all nighters on this one like Dennis. Dont think it will get nearly as strong plus it might be a Texas storm.
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