Max Mayfield just said on CNN...

[N2FSU]

(1:17EST)

He mentioned the current N jog and said that if it continues Navarre and Ft. Walton Beach will take a direct hit. He emphasized that these jogs, that many people on here get scolded for making a big deal about, are very crucial to who is going to receive devastating damage.

[gkrangers]

These jogs are crucial now, within a few hours of landfall.

But when people are arguing over jogs when its 2000 miles from land...it gets quite irritating.

[jlauderdal]

These jogs are crucial now, within a few hours of landfall.

But when people are arguing over jogs when its 2000 miles from land...it gets quite irritating.

kind of but every jog has an effect on ultimate landfall..they are just as important as the ones close to land

[jkt21787]

Agree completely with gkrangers.

This is the time for wobble threads!

[southerngale]

Yeah, they are now. When it's far out, a little jog west or east isn't worth a thread or a gazillion posts IMO.

[Canelaw99]

Yes, they can get irritating, however, the jogs ultimately DO make a difference. For us here in S. FL, the more westerly "jog" (as the mets called it) over Cuba greatly spared Key West. Yes, when it's way out, or way away from land, arguments over jogs aren't necessary. However, the jogs it was taking near Cuba made a big difference to those people (some on this board might have family there), and it makes a difference to us here in southern Florida.

[tallywx]

It will find the bay...

My guess is that a la Charley and Charlotte Harbor, the differential frictional effects of land v. water will compel the eye structure to find Pensacola Bay and go right up the heart of it. The eye structure will be close enough (either on the western or eastern side of the bay) such that the core will be able to sense out the path of least resistence. It has already proven its capacity to wobble. Thus, I believe it will be able to wobble itself right up over water as long as possible. In other words, if it comes in at Navarre, I still think Milton gets a direct hit. If it comes in at Pensacola Beach, I think Milton gets a direct hit.

[slowjoe]

Yes, they can get irritating, however, the jogs ultimately DO make a difference. For us here in S. FL, the more westerly "jog" (as the mets called it) over Cuba greatly spared Key West. Yes, when it's way out, or way away from land, arguments over jogs aren't necessary. However, the jogs it was taking near Cuba made a big difference to those people (some on this board might have family there), and it makes a difference to us here in southern Florida.

The problem is a new thread was being started for each new frame added to the sattilite loop. I don't think it is such a big deal when people keep the posts in ongoing wobble threads.

[Canelaw99]

True, slowjoe. When the next one comes, I think the mods need to make a sticky for the wobbles so they're confined

[LilNoles2005]

True, slowjoe. When the next one comes, I think the mods need to make a sticky for the wobbles so they're confined

I agree completely, though it probably won't happen. It would be nice if everyone on the board could take it upon themselves to keep the 'wobbles' from Emily in one thread....

btw, I think we'll see Emily within a few days from the wave/low in the central atlantic.

[seaswing]

Yep! Dixiebreeze saw a slight jog north last night. I commented that it looked as though it was heading a bit north from NW, we got slammed by others who said we were -removed-....so not true! who in their right mind would want this on their doorstep Although not being a meterologist, not even close; I have lived in Florida all my life (46 yrs) and I cannot tell you how many times I have seen the the wobble make the difference! They almost always wobble before landfall... it can make the difference between little damage and complete obliteration depending on what side of the storm you are on. God Bless all of you in harms way! hunker down and stay safe!!!